Posted by focus175 on 28th of Jan 2022 at 11:03 pm
I know there's a lot of ideas out there of what unfolds next,
but I'm curious for those that understand EW well as I'm still
trying to learn it, I count us in a potential 4th wave down, with
the potential of a 5th wave back to the lows or undercut. How high
would price need to go to negate this count of us being in a
potential 4th wave right now?
One thing about EW - it's best thought of as a mapping tool.
Quite subjective with several options. Best to combine
with other things like trend and technical analysis.
I also take into consideration the fundamental backdrop when
considering longer term positions - VALUATION matters to me and was
seemingly ignored by many in tech land last year.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Jan 2022 at 11:57 pm
I think if only based on Elliot wave, it has to
overlap with wave 1 to completely be ruled out. Wave thory needs to
be used with other weight of evidance. i.e. I posted here back in
May/June 2020 about why the rally shouldn't be a wave B, because
there were some breath thrust signals that have never happened in
previous bear market rallys (like 95% S&P stocks above 50 dma).
Elliot wave alone is so flexible that one can virtually
make up any wave count he/she likes, so fruads love this theory
lol. Just my 2 cents.
I am curious about Matt's count for the new high scenario. An
ending diagonal or metaphone?
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SPY bouncing around at the neckline, setting up for the ...
Posted by focus175 on 28th of Jan 2022 at 11:03 pm
I know there's a lot of ideas out there of what unfolds next, but I'm curious for those that understand EW well as I'm still trying to learn it, I count us in a potential 4th wave down, with the potential of a 5th wave back to the lows or undercut. How high would price need to go to negate this count of us being in a potential 4th wave right now?
https://schrts.co/VWtMckAP
One thing about EW -
Posted by steve on 29th of Jan 2022 at 02:31 pm
One thing about EW - it's best thought of as a mapping tool. Quite subjective with several options. Best to combine with other things like trend and technical analysis.
I also take into consideration the fundamental backdrop when considering longer term positions - VALUATION matters to me and was seemingly ignored by many in tech land last year.
I think if only based
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Jan 2022 at 11:57 pm
I think if only based on Elliot wave, it has to overlap with wave 1 to completely be ruled out. Wave thory needs to be used with other weight of evidance. i.e. I posted here back in May/June 2020 about why the rally shouldn't be a wave B, because there were some breath thrust signals that have never happened in previous bear market rallys (like 95% S&P stocks above 50 dma). Elliot wave alone is so flexible that one can virtually make up any wave count he/she likes, so fruads love this theory lol. Just my 2 cents.
I am curious about Matt's count for the new high scenario. An ending diagonal or metaphone?