ES futures were down over 70 points last night only to fully
recover.
Objectively when I looked at the futures last night I was
thinking oh boy, here we go to that new low. However, then
objectively looking at the charts and how wide that MA ribbon was,
my gut told me there was potential for them to recover.
Anyway, when futures were at their low I looked at the ES
systems and the Bull Exhaustion was triggering, it's not now of
course.
The action has been terrible since the beginning of the year,
but we are at a 25 RSI in the SPX and QQQ now, We did have about a
12% correction from the highs. I was looking for 10-15% total.
Unless the Apple report is horrible, I believe we are carving out a
trading bottom. That being said, if the recent lows on SPX were to
break, it would be easy to be very constructive at the 15%
correction level, starting at 4,095 or a bit lower over the next 12
months for me. I think the Fed stuff is priced in now.
One thing that does concern me longer term is the monthly closes
chart on the indexes. It is pretty stretched for the long term and
would be healthy to see it reset a bit. The middle Bollinger
Band on the monthly closes for SPX is a bit under 4,000 right now.
That would align pretty close to the greater end of my corrective
forecast. This forecast is based on the what we know, of course the
answers likely lie in the what we don't know.
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Futures huge recovery and comments
Posted by matt on 27th of Jan 2022 at 08:08 am
ES futures were down over 70 points last night only to fully recover.
Objectively when I looked at the futures last night I was thinking oh boy, here we go to that new low. However, then objectively looking at the charts and how wide that MA ribbon was, my gut told me there was potential for them to recover. Anyway, when futures were at their low I looked at the ES systems and the Bull Exhaustion was triggering, it's not now of course.
Anyway with the VIX in
Posted by matt on 27th of Jan 2022 at 08:40 am
Anyway with the VIX in the 30's, these wild swings are par for the course
The action has been terrible
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 27th of Jan 2022 at 08:19 am
The action has been terrible since the beginning of the year, but we are at a 25 RSI in the SPX and QQQ now, We did have about a 12% correction from the highs. I was looking for 10-15% total. Unless the Apple report is horrible, I believe we are carving out a trading bottom. That being said, if the recent lows on SPX were to break, it would be easy to be very constructive at the 15% correction level, starting at 4,095 or a bit lower over the next 12 months for me. I think the Fed stuff is priced in now.
One thing that does concern me longer term is the monthly closes chart on the indexes. It is pretty stretched for the long term and would be healthy to see it reset a bit. The middle Bollinger Band on the monthly closes for SPX is a bit under 4,000 right now. That would align pretty close to the greater end of my corrective forecast. This forecast is based on the what we know, of course the answers likely lie in the what we don't know.