Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 01:52 pm
Anytime....The obvious caveat is that at times even the best
patterns may fail.
That being said, this pattern (target) in the dollar, and its
effects on SLV and GLD, is something that has been on the radar of
one of the most respected technical analysts on the street since
January (who’s analysis I have access to). I mention that only to
highlight that there are funds controlling billions, who he
advises, that have been waiting for this to play out for
weeks.
yeah but also the gold stuff trades like this. Steve and I
always say it's one of the hardest things to trade. many times
doesn't have any momo follow through, doesn't trend like other
things, it's a bugger to trade. it's a sector not to chase
breakouts, best to take shots at support etc
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:12 pm
Conceptually, no need to play this macro trade via GLD, to
Matt’s point, probably best not to unless you already trade it a
lot. Instead, at turning points in the dollar, the correlated
presumption is that rates are probably also making a short term top
and that equities, and especially rate sensitive equities like high
growth tech, are going to benefit. So...instead of GLD you go out
and take the Semi’s and the QQQs right after the open hand over
fist...(which is exactly what is happening today).
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:39 pm
Just finished posting about how instead of trading GLD to take
advantage of the macro patterns in the dollar/rates/metals markets
I was describing, fast money could go out and snatch tech and semis
off the open....and ten minutes later John Murphy mails out the
following....(this is not stuff I make up off the top of my head.
Lol)
“
TECHS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY... Technology stocks are the day's
strongest sector which is helping boost the Nasdaq market. As a
result, the Nasdaq is leading today's rally. Chart 1 show the
Invesco QQQ Trust trading 1.8% higher today and nearing a test of
its 50-day moving average. The QQQ may also be heading for a test
of a small "neckline" drawn over its March highs. A close above
that resistance line could push prices closer to their February
high.
Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) already trading above
its 50-day line and heading toward a test of its March highs. The
XLK is the day's strongest sector. Semiconductors are helping lead
the XLK higher. Chart 3 shows the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF
(SMH) trading at the highest level in a month. My Friday message
showed three chip leaders to be Applied Materials, Lam Research,
and KLA Corp. All three are having another strong day.”
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:02 pm
I agree 100%. The biggest reason it is hard to trade is because
few people have the time, energy or connections to keep their pulse
on the macro factors that effect it, including the relative
positions of macro funds (i.e who, and how many funds are leaning
the wrong way at potential turning points.)
Way easier to trade thinner, obscure securities on momentum,
which is what I spent my first 10 years in the business doing
professionally. Unfortunately, that is not an option for me any
longer as I am restricted on what I can do because of the
information I regularly possess. So, I limit myself to ETFs, longer
time frames, and the most liquid products.
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Anytime....The obvious caveat is that
GLD filled yesterday gap
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 01:52 pm
Anytime....The obvious caveat is that at times even the best patterns may fail.
That being said, this pattern (target) in the dollar, and its effects on SLV and GLD, is something that has been on the radar of one of the most respected technical analysts on the street since January (who’s analysis I have access to). I mention that only to highlight that there are funds controlling billions, who he advises, that have been waiting for this to play out for weeks.
yeah but also the gold
Posted by matt on 31st of Mar 2021 at 01:54 pm
yeah but also the gold stuff trades like this. Steve and I always say it's one of the hardest things to trade. many times doesn't have any momo follow through, doesn't trend like other things, it's a bugger to trade. it's a sector not to chase breakouts, best to take shots at support etc
Thanks Matt, I'm only playing
Posted by retirefire on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:06 pm
Thanks Matt, I'm only playing small ball on GLD and options and trying to learn so I don't get my arse kicked. Trade ideas and basic set ups for now.
Conceptually, no need to play
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:12 pm
Conceptually, no need to play this macro trade via GLD, to Matt’s point, probably best not to unless you already trade it a lot. Instead, at turning points in the dollar, the correlated presumption is that rates are probably also making a short term top and that equities, and especially rate sensitive equities like high growth tech, are going to benefit. So...instead of GLD you go out and take the Semi’s and the QQQs right after the open hand over fist...(which is exactly what is happening today).
BTW May 21 2021 GLD
Posted by retirefire on 8th of Apr 2021 at 04:12 pm
BTW May 21 2021 GLD 150 Call up 33 pct. in about a week. (paper trade)
Just finished posting about how
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:39 pm
Just finished posting about how instead of trading GLD to take advantage of the macro patterns in the dollar/rates/metals markets I was describing, fast money could go out and snatch tech and semis off the open....and ten minutes later John Murphy mails out the following....(this is not stuff I make up off the top of my head. Lol)
“ TECHS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY... Technology stocks are the day's strongest sector which is helping boost the Nasdaq market. As a result, the Nasdaq is leading today's rally. Chart 1 show the Invesco QQQ Trust trading 1.8% higher today and nearing a test of its 50-day moving average. The QQQ may also be heading for a test of a small "neckline" drawn over its March highs. A close above that resistance line could push prices closer to their February high.
Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) already trading above its 50-day line and heading toward a test of its March highs. The XLK is the day's strongest sector. Semiconductors are helping lead the XLK higher. Chart 3 shows the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trading at the highest level in a month. My Friday message showed three chip leaders to be Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA Corp. All three are having another strong day.”
Learned today and made money.
Posted by retirefire on 31st of Mar 2021 at 03:03 pm
Learned today and made money. Great board
I agree 100%. The biggest
Posted by chartboy on 31st of Mar 2021 at 02:02 pm
I agree 100%. The biggest reason it is hard to trade is because few people have the time, energy or connections to keep their pulse on the macro factors that effect it, including the relative positions of macro funds (i.e who, and how many funds are leaning the wrong way at potential turning points.)
Way easier to trade thinner, obscure securities on momentum, which is what I spent my first 10 years in the business doing professionally. Unfortunately, that is not an option for me any longer as I am restricted on what I can do because of the information I regularly possess. So, I limit myself to ETFs, longer time frames, and the most liquid products.