If we *knew* that the systems would continue to perform as well
as they have in the past then it would make sense to follow
mechanically -- and maybe they will. I'm not clear on how long the
systems have been trading in "real time" i.e. since all parameters
such as EMA values and rules have been fixed in place. Otherwise
there is the danger of curve fitting where the mas are chosen to
maximize historical performance but *may* not mean much going
forward. Matt, Ravun forgive me if this issue was covered and I
missed (or forgot) it. So it might make more sense for some of us
to combine the ma signals with technical analysis -- let them be
another tool in the box.
Would like to mention for those trading the 7/21 ema cross
system on the 5 min chart the recent whipsaw could have been
avoided by referring to the MACDBB (standard numbers in Ninja
Trader): they never crossed above zero. This was something that
Matt mentioned. Put it to good use today.
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Title: systems If we *knew* that
S&P 500 15 min chart.png looks like that could be it ...
Posted by bkout3 on 10th of Nov 2008 at 02:47 pm
If we *knew* that the systems would continue to perform as well as they have in the past then it would make sense to follow mechanically -- and maybe they will. I'm not clear on how long the systems have been trading in "real time" i.e. since all parameters such as EMA values and rules have been fixed in place. Otherwise there is the danger of curve fitting where the mas are chosen to maximize historical performance but *may* not mean much going forward. Matt, Ravun forgive me if this issue was covered and I missed (or forgot) it. So it might make more sense for some of us to combine the ma signals with technical analysis -- let them be another tool in the box.
MACDBB
Posted by Vida on 10th of Nov 2008 at 02:55 pm
Would like to mention for those trading the 7/21 ema cross system on the 5 min chart the recent whipsaw could have been avoided by referring to the MACDBB (standard numbers in Ninja Trader): they never crossed above zero. This was something that Matt mentioned. Put it to good use today.