A few days ago I shared some charts of intra-market relative
analysis. One of them was Semi’s vs NDX. The reason I did was
regardless of what everything else is doing, generally, the semis
are always a canary in the coal mine for the market. So, keeping
that in mind, it pays to always watch the technical position of
SMH. I have been operating under the presumption that the market
was in trouble since it hit its 2.618 expansion target, and that at
a minimum it would need to decline to the recent.236 retracement to
around 220 to take the pressure off things. Now that my target has
been hit, and we have some support from the linear regression
channel, it colors my short term “lean” less bearish. (As I
spent years advising hedge funds on semi’s I can say without
question they take the same approach.) It is no panacea, but it
helps inform trading decisions.
Thanks for the great information on the semis. If I recall
correctly, many traders/funds typically look for the the semis to
lead the market rally, "come out first" sometimes as a signal for
an investable bottom. Would you agree that is a true statement
relatively speaking?
Stevie Cohen’s traders used to be some of the many clients I
provided market color and liquidity to. Needless to say there was
very little room for error as I was by definition always on the
wrong side of every turn when providing liquidity in those
names.
I'm sure you were. Speaking of that situation with him and
others, wonder why nothing has been done about their relentless
shorting of stocks over the years? I would like to hear your
thoughts on it.
He left twitter after that recent mess with his short positions.
I'm not convinced they got hurt though as much as advertised and
sure they find ways to make it back for whatever they lose here and
there.
That is absolutely the case. Semi’s are extremely sensitive to
economic growth or lack there of. In large part, because it is a
commodity business
The moment the market would hit any type of a bottom, even on
short term charts, it would be a sure thing that the squak box
would be barking...you just sold 250,000 AMAT with more behind it
(or KLAC, etc,etc.)
Thanks again, I appreciate the great information you share here.
It is very helpful in my analysis of the market overall and this
sector.
I'm feeling very good about my THBR position now, particularly
noting that President Biden just signed the executive order to
address the chip shortage. Seeing your SMH chart and the bottoming
of THBR premerger here, with their $2.5B backlog. They will become
Indie semiconductor when the merger is completed.
Best part is, the more advanced vehicles get, the more they make
per car. Its a top 3 holding for my individual names in spacs near
$10. Another lifetime opportunity to invest in my opinion. Game
hasn't even started yet at these prices. It was near $15 just
recently when they announced. To be at $10 with the same
fundamentals is staggering. I'm amazed. I've posted significant dd
on it on the blog maybe a week or so back. I wish there were a way
to tag posts or when people reply to them to have it come up as an
alert. I miss a lot of replies and posts here because I have to go
through the whole feed to look for them. I guess one way is to just
communicate through private message. Some things I think are very
beneficial for the group though, so I keep it here.
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A few days ago I
Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 07:45 am
A few days ago I shared some charts of intra-market relative analysis. One of them was Semi’s vs NDX. The reason I did was regardless of what everything else is doing, generally, the semis are always a canary in the coal mine for the market. So, keeping that in mind, it pays to always watch the technical position of SMH. I have been operating under the presumption that the market was in trouble since it hit its 2.618 expansion target, and that at a minimum it would need to decline to the recent.236 retracement to around 220 to take the pressure off things. Now that my target has been hit, and we have some support from the linear regression channel, it colors my short term “lean” less bearish. (As I spent years advising hedge funds on semi’s I can say without question they take the same approach.) It is no panacea, but it helps inform trading decisions.
Thanks for the great information
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:04 am
Thanks for the great information on the semis. If I recall correctly, many traders/funds typically look for the the semis to lead the market rally, "come out first" sometimes as a signal for an investable bottom. Would you agree that is a true statement relatively speaking?
Stevie Cohen’s traders used to
Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:24 am
Stevie Cohen’s traders used to be some of the many clients I provided market color and liquidity to. Needless to say there was very little room for error as I was by definition always on the wrong side of every turn when providing liquidity in those names.
I'm sure you were. Speaking
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:39 am
I'm sure you were. Speaking of that situation with him and others, wonder why nothing has been done about their relentless shorting of stocks over the years? I would like to hear your thoughts on it.
He left twitter after that recent mess with his short positions. I'm not convinced they got hurt though as much as advertised and sure they find ways to make it back for whatever they lose here and there.
I am limited on what
Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:51 am
I am limited on what I can say. Basically, historical events, publicly available information and ETF technical analysis is about it.
That more than answered my
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:53 am
That more than answered my question
That is absolutely the case.
Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:19 am
That is absolutely the case. Semi’s are extremely sensitive to economic growth or lack there of. In large part, because it is a commodity business
The moment the market would hit any type of a bottom, even on short term charts, it would be a sure thing that the squak box would be barking...you just sold 250,000 AMAT with more behind it (or KLAC, etc,etc.)
Thanks again, I appreciate the
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:33 am
Thanks again, I appreciate the great information you share here. It is very helpful in my analysis of the market overall and this sector.
I'm feeling very good about my THBR position now, particularly noting that President Biden just signed the executive order to address the chip shortage. Seeing your SMH chart and the bottoming of THBR premerger here, with their $2.5B backlog. They will become Indie semiconductor when the merger is completed.
Best part is, the more advanced vehicles get, the more they make per car. Its a top 3 holding for my individual names in spacs near $10. Another lifetime opportunity to invest in my opinion. Game hasn't even started yet at these prices. It was near $15 just recently when they announced. To be at $10 with the same fundamentals is staggering. I'm amazed. I've posted significant dd on it on the blog maybe a week or so back. I wish there were a way to tag posts or when people reply to them to have it come up as an alert. I miss a lot of replies and posts here because I have to go through the whole feed to look for them. I guess one way is to just communicate through private message. Some things I think are very beneficial for the group though, so I keep it here.