Matt, you have a guideline

    Posted by bulf6285 on 9th of Nov 2020 at 10:43 am

    Matt, you have a guideline on the KISS to use the first DVT when there are only 2... this is clear. Is this SPY specific or does this rule apply across the board?

    at this time that rule

    Posted by matt on 9th of Nov 2020 at 12:41 pm

    at this time that rule is across the board, however since this a work in progress it's possible I may come up with additions to that rule in the future where at times I would the first and other times use the 2nd, I will let you know when I add additional rules and filters. 

    Again like I covered, the KISS stuff is not a set programmed system like the SPY systems that I can just spit out hard stats for easily. To me best used as a tool and a guide. Remember there's a lot of rules and filters I will be exploring. I think the DVT's do a great job at protecting you from big market crashes that occur once in a while. But with any trend type system the most difficult thing to deal with is chop. Wave 1's, 3's 5s, etc are easy and wave 4's, 2's, abcs are tough to deal with.  We've seen real time examples of the DVT exiting in early Sept before a 300 point drop in the SPX. I think one should be open to use their own triggers and plans to get back in early if they see an opportunity. In most cases the KISS will only get back in after a good move up, and some times it will get back in higher than where it would have gotten out.  I think a good way to look at things is let's say in the future the DVT got you out and the SPX was 200 or 300 or 400 points lower now and you avoided all that (kind of like we had in Sept), because you avoided that you could look to scale back in earlier because you are at such a better place than had you held it. 

    other things one could consider is maybe using the SPY systems along with the KISS trend as a tool to get back long earlier than the KISS. As you know the SPY systems are reversion to mean and will go long when the KISS is out and in cash. One could maybe use the SPY systems to position back long the market if they had gotten out previously from the DVT's at higher prices. Then if the SPY systems are still holding when the KISS finally goes back long, one could make a decision to continue holding the SPY system positions now with the KISS - the SPY systems would have positioned you ealrier than waiting for the KISS to go back long   Other things I'm looking at are extra filters, I also showed the weekly KISS on the weekend newsletter which does a great job avoiding noise but it's entries are later, so maybe one could position early from the daily then use the weekly for the exit to hold longer. or use the 120 min with the daily. Who knows, the point I'm making, the KISS stuff is a great tool and it's something I'm more excited about than any system I worked on in past. But I still view it like a spilled box of puzzel pieces that I have on the floor and have not yet put all of them together, it's an ongoing project.  I should have avoided posting stats because then folks get excited and don't treat it as a tool but only want to follow it and not use their own triggers and analysis along with it


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