Matt- I find this confusing too. What I care most
about is that I replicate the system results posted here
https://breakpointtrades.com/current_dvts. You have
stated in the past that the system statistics are based on always
stopping out at the DVT, regardless of how many DVTs there are.
I noticed that you have not updated that page to show
the DVT stop out on Oct 28th. Will you be updating the
stats to reflect that stop? If so, what price are you using
as the re-entry? If not, are the system statistics
using a consistent methodology all the way back to the start of the
stats in 2006? Thanks.
again I stated that I will make sure all that is 100% crystal
clear in the future.
that said, that DVT rule is NOT new. Those statistics were built
using that rule 3 months ago, it's not something new I just pulled
out of my ass, the rules are consistent and nothing brand new. I've
also discussed it 20 times more more in the my newsletters over the
past couple months and numerous times here. Now obviously I
should have made it much clearer and that's something I will do in
the future. I'll even shoot a new video and discuss all these
things as the video in that section is from back in July I think,
so I'll update that.
that said in the future I will make sure that any written
statements are 100% clear vs ambiguous. Also that rule of 2 DVT's,
okay for simplicity let's assume that rule didn't exist and the 2nd
DVT was the official one which was hit. Well, today the daily
system would have went back long today anyway because price
confirmed over the ATR. Yesterday the 120 min confirmed over the
ATR and 60 Stochastic over 50%, much better prices. That said, one
looking to get back in now, my thought is the market is quite
stretched, I'd probably enter on a pullback that works some of this
off and shift to my 60 min, 30, 15 min time frames for a trigger,
that's just me. The point is even if you throw out that 2 DVT rule,
the daily would be back long so if you are following that you would
look to be back long, but maybe wait for a pullback now since
things are stretched. I'm not a financial adviser, you make your
own decisions.
Also the KISS is really a methodology, it's NOT like the SPY
systems that are 100% set. I think of the KISS more as a mythology,
a universal set of indicators and rules that can be used on almost
any instrument, that are not curve fit to anything. It's also not
something that I consider even close to complete. Trend following
systems, their enemy is chop. This is something I plan to be
working on for quite some time, adding more rules and filters over
time. I send out email alerts and SMS messages when the SPY
systems take trades because they are 100% set. I don't do that with
the KISS stuff because I consider it a very power tool but not
something I feel is 100% complete for that. That's why I show the
charts and you use them or not.
honestly it's my own fault for even putting those statistics up
because then you guys only want to use that instead of using using
it as a guide and using your own charts and tools. Maybe we should
go back to that and just display the the charts with DVT prices and
you can use them as guides. Also I have guys who write me telling
me they want even less signals and like the weekly, so maybe I'll
start posting that too.
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Matt- I find this confusing
Daily Kiss...Matt & Steve thanks for keeping us updated. Has ...
Posted by z0ned on 5th of Nov 2020 at 07:57 pm
Matt- I find this confusing too. What I care most about is that I replicate the system results posted here https://breakpointtrades.com/current_dvts. You have stated in the past that the system statistics are based on always stopping out at the DVT, regardless of how many DVTs there are. I noticed that you have not updated that page to show the DVT stop out on Oct 28th. Will you be updating the stats to reflect that stop? If so, what price are you using as the re-entry? If not, are the system statistics using a consistent methodology all the way back to the start of the stats in 2006? Thanks.
again I stated that I
Posted by matt on 6th of Nov 2020 at 01:08 am
again I stated that I will make sure all that is 100% crystal clear in the future.
that said, that DVT rule is NOT new. Those statistics were built using that rule 3 months ago, it's not something new I just pulled out of my ass, the rules are consistent and nothing brand new. I've also discussed it 20 times more more in the my newsletters over the past couple months and numerous times here. Now obviously I should have made it much clearer and that's something I will do in the future. I'll even shoot a new video and discuss all these things as the video in that section is from back in July I think, so I'll update that.
that said in the future I will make sure that any written statements are 100% clear vs ambiguous. Also that rule of 2 DVT's, okay for simplicity let's assume that rule didn't exist and the 2nd DVT was the official one which was hit. Well, today the daily system would have went back long today anyway because price confirmed over the ATR. Yesterday the 120 min confirmed over the ATR and 60 Stochastic over 50%, much better prices. That said, one looking to get back in now, my thought is the market is quite stretched, I'd probably enter on a pullback that works some of this off and shift to my 60 min, 30, 15 min time frames for a trigger, that's just me. The point is even if you throw out that 2 DVT rule, the daily would be back long so if you are following that you would look to be back long, but maybe wait for a pullback now since things are stretched. I'm not a financial adviser, you make your own decisions.
Also the KISS is really a methodology, it's NOT like the SPY systems that are 100% set. I think of the KISS more as a mythology, a universal set of indicators and rules that can be used on almost any instrument, that are not curve fit to anything. It's also not something that I consider even close to complete. Trend following systems, their enemy is chop. This is something I plan to be working on for quite some time, adding more rules and filters over time. I send out email alerts and SMS messages when the SPY systems take trades because they are 100% set. I don't do that with the KISS stuff because I consider it a very power tool but not something I feel is 100% complete for that. That's why I show the charts and you use them or not.
honestly it's my own fault for even putting those statistics up because then you guys only want to use that instead of using using it as a guide and using your own charts and tools. Maybe we should go back to that and just display the the charts with DVT prices and you can use them as guides. Also I have guys who write me telling me they want even less signals and like the weekly, so maybe I'll start posting that too.