Comments on the market trends, missing them, etc

    Posted by matt on 5th of Jun 2020 at 02:47 pm

    $SPX - Chart Link- I'll write about this more on the weekend but from a technical perspective on the daily charts the S&P 500 is in an uptrend that will not be confirmed over until you get a pullback larger than 190 points that breaks symmetry. 

    Steve and I analyze the markets every day - as do the majority of you.  The problem is that as technicians most of us are contrarians as well.  When we are analyzing an uptrend - we look for signs of why it may end such as divergence etc.  So doing that constantly can cause one to maybe not participate in the market or get out too early.  Also the longer you don't participate or miss an uptrend, the harder it is to buy into it waiting for that pullback. It gets very emotional.

    One thing this market has done has caused very unsophisticated traders to look like genius's because they don't know what an indicator is or what overbought is so they just buy, buy the FANG stocks at the bottom or the market and hold all thew way up. Meanwhile the market technician who knows technical over thinks it and misses the rally - it's a big irony at times where knowing a little techicals causes you to be a worse investor than knowing nothing at all because you overthink the trend and guess tops.  For example a doctor friend called me today while I was driving home was so excited about the market.  He bought his first stocks 2 months ago and is so excited because he's made so much money. He doesn't even know what a chart is (what a bull flag or coil is, what divergence is) but he's done well, better than most technicians or folks who know a bit which causes them not to just buy. the irony of it is crazy

    I think one solution is that 401K's investment stuff should be treated differently than trading accounts.  When you mix the two that's where you have problems. I know because it's happened to me more times than I can count.

    So that's what I've been focused on developing the daily DVT system. And also perhaps our newsletters should be less focused on the market at times - and even more focused on trade ideas.  Like I said above - from a daily perspective, the SPX will remain in a daily uptrend until it has a pullback larger than 190 points to break symmetry. Or one can use that DVT.  

    Thanks Matt, I really appreciate

    Posted by morton7 on 6th of Jun 2020 at 09:46 am

    Thanks Matt, I really appreciate the symmetry analysis as it saves me a lot of time trying to do myself. 

    Great writeup - this education

    Posted by ojc345 on 5th of Jun 2020 at 03:54 pm

    Great writeup - this education is what i value most from BPT.  Looking forward to the weekend writeup - keep up the good work!

    Paralysis by analysis.

    Posted by retirefire on 5th of Jun 2020 at 02:56 pm

    Paralysis by analysis.

    Exactly separate your accounts into

    Posted by steve on 5th of Jun 2020 at 02:51 pm

    Exactly separate your accounts into various categories for time frames.  Again, it comes down to developing an APPROACH that fits your style. 

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