Posted by beck67er on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:47 am
Matt/Steve, No one answered my question yesterday.
According to Sunday's and yesterday's Newsletter on the VIX
chart, all three conditions for a buy signal have been met.
How come no buy signal?
?? first off I didn't see the post so apologize. Secondly
that is not really a system, it's more of a guide. Now most
of the time when the VIX is behaving normally closes back inside
the VIX work pretty well. One of you guys should take the VIX
and SPX chart and try to do some history back 15 years and compile
the data in a spreadsheet and share. I think it tried doing that
once but been a long time and I don't know where that it is.
Anyway in the times when the VIX moves VERY strongly up you
will tend to get multiple bad signals where it closes back inside,
then outside, then back inside and outside
see this quick chart - again under most VIX conditions that
works well however on very sharp corrections when the VIX spikes
way up you get many multiple whipsaw signals where you buy on the
up day which causes the VIX to go back inside the bands and that's
the one day bounce and crap.
now I think the VIX moving down like it has the last few days is
far more interesting and yesterday probably good for a buy, but
that wasn't one day inside the bands.
Also note the VIX became uncorrelated to the SPX on that
indicator below SPX
so normal times that one day close backinside is normally a good
signal, sometimes it's good for 1 day, sometimes it's a major low
or high. But when you get moves where the VIX spikes way up over 30
and 40 I think you can't simply use the 1 day close back inside the
VIX as you can get multiple before it's correct. Switch to other
charts for triggers
Matt/Steve, No one answered my
Posted by beck67er on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:47 am
Matt/Steve, No one answered my question yesterday. According to Sunday's and yesterday's Newsletter on the VIX chart, all three conditions for a buy signal have been met. How come no buy signal?
?? first off I didn't
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:58 am
?? first off I didn't see the post so apologize. Secondly that is not really a system, it's more of a guide. Now most of the time when the VIX is behaving normally closes back inside the VIX work pretty well. One of you guys should take the VIX and SPX chart and try to do some history back 15 years and compile the data in a spreadsheet and share. I think it tried doing that once but been a long time and I don't know where that it is. Anyway in the times when the VIX moves VERY strongly up you will tend to get multiple bad signals where it closes back inside, then outside, then back inside and outside
see this quick chart - again under most VIX conditions that works well however on very sharp corrections when the VIX spikes way up you get many multiple whipsaw signals where you buy on the up day which causes the VIX to go back inside the bands and that's the one day bounce and crap.
now I think the VIX moving down like it has the last few days is far more interesting and yesterday probably good for a buy, but that wasn't one day inside the bands.
Also note the VIX became uncorrelated to the SPX on that indicator below SPX
so normal times that one day close backinside is normally a good signal, sometimes it's good for 1 day, sometimes it's a major low or high. But when you get moves where the VIX spikes way up over 30 and 40 I think you can't simply use the 1 day close back inside the VIX as you can get multiple before it's correct. Switch to other charts for triggers
VIX
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 12:12 pm
also remember the rules on the chart, been there for years
For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 things:
1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band.
2. A close back within the 2.0 Bollinger Band. This creates the signal.
3. A higher close (sell) or a lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the Bollinger Band. This serves to confirm the signal.