SPX and VIX spike history

    Posted by matt on 8th of Mar 2020 at 12:50 pm

    I've covered these examples before many times over many newsletters, however here's a video that goes over past examples.  I've also shown the past major corrections and how they all tend to be these various ABC very choppy consolidations.  In my observations the stronger the initial decline, the more psychological damage is done and thus more time and complex choppy patterns tend to result.  To me 2011 that was about a 20% waterfall there, and you can see the resulting pattern.  After the initial sell off you got a bounce that ONLY got slighthly over the 9 EMA then sold off again almost to test the lows, then you got a bigger bounce, then all those little waves. On our current market we had the waterfall sell off and the first bounce also only just go over the 9 EMA where it too failed and we are now not far from the initial lows.  So the question remains can our current market bounce somewhere soon in here without taking out the recent low like it did in 2011?  Don't get me wrong guys, even if the market were to do that, the lows will eventually be retested and probably broker later, maybe 1 - 2 months later. Or we just go and make a slight new low now. 

    anyway with all the negative news on the weekend we'll see if futures open down again.  I do think also that it's very dangerous to be short at this point because you never new, Congress could come out with some 500 Billion - 1 Trillion stimulus package overnight that spikes the market, which I think would be taken much more positive than the Fed rate cut which the market didn't like.  

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddTRrc0A7Vo

    I do not think that

    Posted by ducati on 8th of Mar 2020 at 04:23 pm

    I do not think that market has a chance with what is happening with oil. It is going to slam the high yield market and spread

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