The daily ES bar closed at 5 pm, so just following up, as I said
the ES version of the sub system would be closing out, which you
see on the left charts. The SPY version on the right did not
close.
Matt, does it mean that the overnight highs will be tested
tomorrow into the close?
My broker charges more margin for a long position on MES now
than for a short position. Russell2000 might have already peaked
for this bounce, there is a clear divergence on RSI on it. ES also
has RSI divergence, by the way. No sell signal though.
it doesn't mean anything. Quite simply the system triggered an
exit on ES but not on SPY because those instruments are different
prices, causes the indicators to be in different spots.
like I said one option was if someone wanted to split the
difference and close out 1/2.
however I also posted that image because if I ever do bring the
ES system signals here - it's just another real time example how
they average each other out. Let's say the market sells of
tomorrow and the SPY system closes out at worse price so in this
case trading BOTH SPY and ES systems helped you average that out.
If the market instead rallies further, well you still have
money in one system
so as you know yesterday ES version of the Trend system exited
but the SPY version did not. So today is a real time example
of how even though both were in the exact same trade and sub
systems, you can see how they average one another out with ES
exiting yesterday. For example when I bring the ES systems to
the website you would have been in both system trades but closed
the one yesterday.
anyway I did mention yesterday in my final email that the SPY
system version would continue to hold however I mentioned that we
had the jobs report today and one could consider closing some out
for a profit yesterday since the ES version did close out and we
had the Jobs report today. I am kicking myself a bit though
because I had typed into my email alert that we were closing out
1/2, and I removed it LOL. But again I did suggest it as an option
at least.
Also last year most Friday's were up while this year every
Friday has been down, so today is keeping with that trend thus far
but it's early still
so yeah even though ES exited before on that Trend/Pullback
yesterday when you zoom out and look at the system chart, the SPY
trade was still awesome, really doesn't look much different on the
chart. Also when I sent that out this morning most of you saw
the email by the time the market had bounced off the lows and would
have gotten out probably close to the system exit or
higher.
obviously nice dump this afternoon which is kind kind of what I
expected, this year all the Friday's have been weak so odds favored
weakness today as well
the system trades are simply probability trades, they do not
read the future. trading is always a risk, no reward without risk.
anyway the systems do what they do nothing more can be said
about it
that's an option for folks to do manually. as far as
always doing that, I've tested simply trailing a stop, and the
stats long term were better this way. Again one can always do some
discretionary rules when trading these
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SPY vs ES Trend/Pullback
Posted by matt on 6th of Feb 2020 at 05:19 pm
The daily ES bar closed at 5 pm, so just following up, as I said the ES version of the sub system would be closing out, which you see on the left charts. The SPY version on the right did not close.
Matt, does it mean that
Posted by junkie on 6th of Feb 2020 at 05:28 pm
Matt, does it mean that the overnight highs will be tested tomorrow into the close?
My broker charges more margin for a long position on MES now than for a short position. Russell2000 might have already peaked for this bounce, there is a clear divergence on RSI on it. ES also has RSI divergence, by the way. No sell signal though.
it doesn't mean anything. Quite
Posted by matt on 6th of Feb 2020 at 05:33 pm
it doesn't mean anything. Quite simply the system triggered an exit on ES but not on SPY because those instruments are different prices, causes the indicators to be in different spots.
like I said one option was if someone wanted to split the difference and close out 1/2.
however I also posted that image because if I ever do bring the ES system signals here - it's just another real time example how they average each other out. Let's say the market sells of tomorrow and the SPY system closes out at worse price so in this case trading BOTH SPY and ES systems helped you average that out. If the market instead rallies further, well you still have money in one system
so as you know yesterday
Posted by matt on 7th of Feb 2020 at 09:43 am
so as you know yesterday ES version of the Trend system exited but the SPY version did not. So today is a real time example of how even though both were in the exact same trade and sub systems, you can see how they average one another out with ES exiting yesterday. For example when I bring the ES systems to the website you would have been in both system trades but closed the one yesterday.
anyway I did mention yesterday in my final email that the SPY system version would continue to hold however I mentioned that we had the jobs report today and one could consider closing some out for a profit yesterday since the ES version did close out and we had the Jobs report today. I am kicking myself a bit though because I had typed into my email alert that we were closing out 1/2, and I removed it LOL. But again I did suggest it as an option at least.
Also last year most Friday's were up while this year every Friday has been down, so today is keeping with that trend thus far but it's early still
so yeah even though ES
Posted by matt on 7th of Feb 2020 at 02:21 pm
so yeah even though ES exited before on that Trend/Pullback yesterday when you zoom out and look at the system chart, the SPY trade was still awesome, really doesn't look much different on the chart. Also when I sent that out this morning most of you saw the email by the time the market had bounced off the lows and would have gotten out probably close to the system exit or higher.
obviously nice dump this afternoon which is kind kind of what I expected, this year all the Friday's have been weak so odds favored weakness today as well
here's an image showing SPY and ES systems
thanks to Steve in letter
Posted by retirefire on 7th of Feb 2020 at 02:31 pm
thanks to Steve in letter last night pointing out Friday weakness
the system trades are simply
Posted by matt on 6th of Feb 2020 at 05:36 pm
the system trades are simply probability trades, they do not read the future. trading is always a risk, no reward without risk. anyway the systems do what they do nothing more can be said about it
Why instead of closing out
Posted by piclez on 6th of Feb 2020 at 06:11 pm
Why instead of closing out ES, just trail it and let it be taken out?
that's an option for folks
Posted by matt on 6th of Feb 2020 at 06:39 pm
that's an option for folks to do manually. as far as always doing that, I've tested simply trailing a stop, and the stats long term were better this way. Again one can always do some discretionary rules when trading these