well like I commented in my newsletter with that sentiment
chart, too traders getting bearish on tiny pullbacks, when you see
that it means the market will go higher. Also the daily SPX 60
Stochastic is well over 80% which is Stochastic momentum.
The SPY system exhaustion trade that caught a nice trade, it was
very short term and it got out.
anyway we'll see today if it's a Trend day after the gap.
SPY system is still long, my guess is that it may close out
sometime next week, but probably not until Tue/Wed
Should a lower high still be expected because of a broken
symmetry to the downside? Or a trade deal / employment euphoria
trump measured moves on the charts?
IDK hard to say. anyway price hasn't yet taken out
Thanksgiving week high so it technically could still form a
lower high or double top. However this could also just
be the 5th wave. Price action is king for now
anyway SPY system long from Tues that's doing well
obviously
again you have to understand symmetry first off. The long term
symmetry was never broken i.e. pullbacks for the whole year.
Symmetry is fractal, so while the symmetry from early Oct was
broken the bigger symmetry was not. Symmetry is a guild and works
well but it's not 100% and that's what makes a market.
secondly and I've talked about this before, however I think
you've been gone and only recently came back so you might not be
versed on symmetry
Whenever a symmetry is broken you generally form a lower high or
higher low, HOWEVER it doesn't always mean that price retraces all
the way.
for example in an uptrend after breaking a symmetry, you might
form a lower higher, which is really just a pause, then only get a
small pullback but that pull back doesn't go all the way back to
take out the low, then price goes right back up.
and of course remember on daily charts we are in that Stochastic
momentum condition, I said this week that the pullback was most
likely some sort of 4th wave, and also I talked about how sentiment
is too bearish, traders got as bearish as the Oct low on that tiny
pullback Monday and Tuesday, and when you see stuff like that the
market isn't ready to drop,
Thank you for clarifying it, Matt! I did not believe there _was_
a symmetry break, the whole thing looked to me like a stop run up
to daily time frames. The stop on the daily ES was 3073, and
the low was 3069. However, the close at the end of the day is what
matters, so if one were to hold a hard stop on ES, one would have
been faked out of a long position.
I did not expect a drop all the way either, as 4th waves are
triangles contracting to the apex.
I did put my account flat after a symmetry break, so I am not
benefiting from this run up. But I have not lost anything in the
process either.
This looks like a repeat of 2017 Sept to January of 2018. HFTs
merely buy the heck of this market before everybody else could.
Your old ES system went long near 3015 and has stayed long since
on various subsystems, by the way. Kudos to you and it for it!!
well looking at the big picture the trumpster is in
drivers seat with chinese so will be no trade deal and we will
raise tariffs ..that may be the catalyst . my short term on my
indicators say gold down 3-5 days as the daily topped yesterday. i
was fortunate to hav put in a sell at 14.00 on my 59 jan in the
money calls and all 75 contracts went away. hugh week i was short
mkt with 240 vxx calls and long 200 calls on gld and 50 calls in
the money on nugt...
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so who is going to
Posted by RP on 6th of Dec 2019 at 08:51 am
so who is going to short this market?
well like I commented in
Posted by matt on 6th of Dec 2019 at 09:00 am
well like I commented in my newsletter with that sentiment chart, too traders getting bearish on tiny pullbacks, when you see that it means the market will go higher. Also the daily SPX 60 Stochastic is well over 80% which is Stochastic momentum.
The SPY system exhaustion trade that caught a nice trade, it was very short term and it got out.
anyway we'll see today if it's a Trend day after the gap.
SPY system is still long, my guess is that it may close out sometime next week, but probably not until Tue/Wed
Should a lower high still
Posted by junkie on 6th of Dec 2019 at 10:55 am
Should a lower high still be expected because of a broken symmetry to the downside? Or a trade deal / employment euphoria trump measured moves on the charts?
That's a guide but no
Posted by steve on 6th of Dec 2019 at 11:41 am
That's a guide but no action without a valid trigger as you know.
IDK hard to say. anyway
Posted by matt on 6th of Dec 2019 at 11:05 am
IDK hard to say. anyway price hasn't yet taken out Thanksgiving week high so it technically could still form a lower high or double top. However this could also just be the 5th wave. Price action is king for now
anyway SPY system long from Tues that's doing well obviously
again you have to understand symmetry first off. The long term symmetry was never broken i.e. pullbacks for the whole year. Symmetry is fractal, so while the symmetry from early Oct was broken the bigger symmetry was not. Symmetry is a guild and works well but it's not 100% and that's what makes a market.
secondly and I've talked about this before, however I think you've been gone and only recently came back so you might not be versed on symmetry
Whenever a symmetry is broken you generally form a lower high or higher low, HOWEVER it doesn't always mean that price retraces all the way.
for example in an uptrend after breaking a symmetry, you might form a lower higher, which is really just a pause, then only get a small pullback but that pull back doesn't go all the way back to take out the low, then price goes right back up.
and of course remember on daily charts we are in that Stochastic momentum condition, I said this week that the pullback was most likely some sort of 4th wave, and also I talked about how sentiment is too bearish, traders got as bearish as the Oct low on that tiny pullback Monday and Tuesday, and when you see stuff like that the market isn't ready to drop,
Thank you for clarifying it,
Posted by junkie on 6th of Dec 2019 at 11:23 am
Thank you for clarifying it, Matt! I did not believe there _was_ a symmetry break, the whole thing looked to me like a stop run up to daily time frames. The stop on the daily ES was 3073, and the low was 3069. However, the close at the end of the day is what matters, so if one were to hold a hard stop on ES, one would have been faked out of a long position.
I did not expect a drop all the way either, as 4th waves are triangles contracting to the apex.
I did put my account flat after a symmetry break, so I am not benefiting from this run up. But I have not lost anything in the process either.
This looks like a repeat of 2017 Sept to January of 2018. HFTs merely buy the heck of this market before everybody else could.
Your old ES system went long near 3015 and has stayed long since on various subsystems, by the way. Kudos to you and it for it!!
well looking at the big
Posted by RP on 6th of Dec 2019 at 09:13 am
well looking at the big picture the trumpster is in drivers seat with chinese so will be no trade deal and we will raise tariffs ..that may be the catalyst . my short term on my indicators say gold down 3-5 days as the daily topped yesterday. i was fortunate to hav put in a sell at 14.00 on my 59 jan in the money calls and all 75 contracts went away. hugh week i was short mkt with 240 vxx calls and long 200 calls on gld and 50 calls in the money on nugt...