it's a slow day, so I suppose I am allowed to ask a question.
According to BPT we are in a bear market, Maybe at the end of wave
a and Maybe already in wave b up. It seems to me that in a couple
of month the c low will be in and then a new impulsive wave up will
start with new highs in the years to come.
Is it possible that this is a bigger top and we will have a
deeper and longer correction, so the wave counting would not be a
corrective a b c but an impulsive 1 2 3 4 5 down?
zwyss - there are several valid options (including the current
decline completing an Intermediate Wave C). That's anyone's
guess at this point and thus it's best to respect the trend until
evidence changes. In the meantime, look for valid trade
setups (both directions). I view all corrective moves as
a-b-c which can be composed of 1-2-3-4-5 as subwaves but
overall you are still correcting against the trend upward. My
advice is to not get bogged down with labeling (best used as
mapping along the way) and instead respect the trend and focus on
identifying valid entries via patterns, divergences, etc. As
I stated months ago, I expected the market to retrace the 2016-18
advance at a minimum and possibly the entire 2009-18 advance, only
time will tell to what degree which will likely be the result of
Central Banks involvement or lack thereof since Monetary policy
tends to have the most impact on asset prices. Happy
New Year
There's a lot of possibilities at the moment honestly. There's
another even a less bearish possibility that the intermediate wave
B we've been talking about was actually put in already during the
Nov rally and that this is the final C down that once complete will
market a bottom (but really needs another push down to complete in
the short term). And of course one could make a case
for a bigger top. have to let things unfold more
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it's a slow day, so
Posted by zwyss on 31st of Dec 2018 at 11:08 am
it's a slow day, so I suppose I am allowed to ask a question. According to BPT we are in a bear market, Maybe at the end of wave a and Maybe already in wave b up. It seems to me that in a couple of month the c low will be in and then a new impulsive wave up will start with new highs in the years to come.
Is it possible that this is a bigger top and we will have a deeper and longer correction, so the wave counting would not be a corrective a b c but an impulsive 1 2 3 4 5 down?
thanks and Happy New Year
zwyss - there are several
Posted by steve on 31st of Dec 2018 at 11:31 am
zwyss - there are several valid options (including the current decline completing an Intermediate Wave C). That's anyone's guess at this point and thus it's best to respect the trend until evidence changes. In the meantime, look for valid trade setups (both directions). I view all corrective moves as a-b-c which can be composed of 1-2-3-4-5 as subwaves but overall you are still correcting against the trend upward. My advice is to not get bogged down with labeling (best used as mapping along the way) and instead respect the trend and focus on identifying valid entries via patterns, divergences, etc. As I stated months ago, I expected the market to retrace the 2016-18 advance at a minimum and possibly the entire 2009-18 advance, only time will tell to what degree which will likely be the result of Central Banks involvement or lack thereof since Monetary policy tends to have the most impact on asset prices. Happy New Year
There's a lot of possibilities
Posted by matt on 31st of Dec 2018 at 11:30 am
There's a lot of possibilities at the moment honestly. There's another even a less bearish possibility that the intermediate wave B we've been talking about was actually put in already during the Nov rally and that this is the final C down that once complete will market a bottom (but really needs another push down to complete in the short term). And of course one could make a case for a bigger top. have to let things unfold more