Matt - Thank you for talking through the current outlook for the
401k Paint Dry System in your last newsletter. In it, you
mentioned how it’s moving average is beginning to have a negative
slope, and because of that, it will look to go to cash with a
monthly close below October lows. Based on that, can you
please explain why the system did not go to cash back in June 2010
(#1 on chart) as well as in September 2011 (#2)? Both
situations had a negative slope with a monthly close below recent
lows. Thank you.
shecar- Back in 2010 etc, the market came off a very oversold
condition in March 2009 which was very recent where the 14 RSI was
oversold. I've covered this before, 14 RSI has only been oversold
on a monthly chart 7 times in 95 years, it's very rare:
There's one condition in there where if that condition was
very recently present give more room before turning over, but also
the slope needs to be confirmed via a confirming candle, which
didn't occur. What I mean by this is on the candle where the slope
went negative, a candle was needed to take out the low of that
candle, that never occurred there. It's called my whipsaw
confirmation method. One can use that on a variety of indicators
and MA crosses, here's an example of using that on MA crosses for
example a past post
see the detailed annotated chart I drew up showing the
confirmation method on the current chart, you can see how the 2010
and 2011 areas did not confirm. And currently Oct is where the
slope turned negative, a close below Oct low would provide
confirmation
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Matt - Thank you for
Posted by shecar on 13th of Nov 2018 at 04:53 pm
Matt - Thank you for talking through the current outlook for the 401k Paint Dry System in your last newsletter. In it, you mentioned how it’s moving average is beginning to have a negative slope, and because of that, it will look to go to cash with a monthly close below October lows. Based on that, can you please explain why the system did not go to cash back in June 2010 (#1 on chart) as well as in September 2011 (#2)? Both situations had a negative slope with a monthly close below recent lows. Thank you.
shecar - Back in 2010 etc,
Posted by matt on 13th of Nov 2018 at 05:25 pm
shecar - Back in 2010 etc, the market came off a very oversold condition in March 2009 which was very recent where the 14 RSI was oversold. I've covered this before, 14 RSI has only been oversold on a monthly chart 7 times in 95 years, it's very rare: There's one condition in there where if that condition was very recently present give more room before turning over, but also the slope needs to be confirmed via a confirming candle, which didn't occur. What I mean by this is on the candle where the slope went negative, a candle was needed to take out the low of that candle, that never occurred there. It's called my whipsaw confirmation method. One can use that on a variety of indicators and MA crosses, here's an example of using that on MA crosses for example a past post
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/222959/
see the detailed annotated chart I drew up showing the confirmation method on the current chart, you can see how the 2010 and 2011 areas did not confirm. And currently Oct is where the slope turned negative, a close below Oct low would provide confirmation