iaranger - I discussed that in my last weekend newsletter, Steve
will never discuss it in his. I also discussed it on the blog
here quite a few times responding to questions like yours and
others and I updated the Long Term tools section, read what I wrote
here last time this was asked and go to that section.
It has not flipped yet, but as I state, it's now looking for
an opportunity. At the very moment it would take a close below Oct
lows to flip it red. Otherwise what will likely happen is that it
will flip sometime in the new few months hopefully on a lower high
bounce that then peters out. The slope of the BPT MA moving
average is now negative. Remember topping is a process and
it's hard to flip that, it will never ever catch tops. Even in Jan
31 2008 when that flipped the SPX was 12% off the highs, it doesn't
look like that from the chart because the rest of the 2008 declines
were so strong that it flattens that out, still a great exit since
the SPX fell about 50% from the highs. The system is much more
timely at bear market bottoms catching them many times a few weeks
off the lows. But for tops i needs confirmation and it will not
catch them at the highs, always misses them because of needing
confirmation. Very tough to catch tops.
iaranger - I discussed that
Can you update the 401k paint dry system graph under ...
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:22 am
iaranger - I discussed that in my last weekend newsletter, Steve will never discuss it in his. I also discussed it on the blog here quite a few times responding to questions like yours and others and I updated the Long Term tools section, read what I wrote here last time this was asked and go to that section. It has not flipped yet, but as I state, it's now looking for an opportunity. At the very moment it would take a close below Oct lows to flip it red. Otherwise what will likely happen is that it will flip sometime in the new few months hopefully on a lower high bounce that then peters out. The slope of the BPT MA moving average is now negative. Remember topping is a process and it's hard to flip that, it will never ever catch tops. Even in Jan 31 2008 when that flipped the SPX was 12% off the highs, it doesn't look like that from the chart because the rest of the 2008 declines were so strong that it flattens that out, still a great exit since the SPX fell about 50% from the highs. The system is much more timely at bear market bottoms catching them many times a few weeks off the lows. But for tops i needs confirmation and it will not catch them at the highs, always misses them because of needing confirmation. Very tough to catch tops.
https://breakpointtrades.com/long_term_tools/401_K_long_term/
read what i wrote at the top of that section, nothing has changed since that
Thanks I missed seeing it
Posted by iaranger on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:23 am
Thanks I missed seeing it last weekends update My bad Again Thanks
I updated my post with
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:29 am
I updated my post with some more info and a chart, refresh the blog to see the update post