cape_rover - please go and review last weekend's newsletter for
starter's which shows multiple longer term index (price) charts.
In addition, there was divergence in the NYAD (see chart
below). Bear markets are often quite volatile (notice recent
action) and thus we could also see snapback rallies (such as
yesterday). I sent you a private message so please check your
inbox. With that being said, what's most important is to
respect price action on various time frames and adjust
accordingly.
Outside of technicals, rising interest rates (in addition to QT
which many seem to forget about) serve to impede corporate profits
(peak profits may be at hand) and thus contract multiples.
See my comments (click on title) back in October (along with
other references to rising rates/ QT in late spring/summer).
While I was certainly looking for price compression, I have to
admit the carnage has been stronger than I anticipated in such a
short period of time during what is historically stronger
seasonality. We are dealing with many uncertainties at this
time and there is no historical precedent for QT so it's really
hard to determine how its impacting the marketplace. Clearly,
the withdrawal of $50 Billion a month is a headwind which is now
getting some media coverage (after very little commentary in the
preceding months). In addition, we have seen multiple rate
increases which make capital more expensive which impacts buybacks,
etc. Liquidity is the lifeblood of the market and its clear
that bids have been evaporating over time. Respect the trend until
evidence changes.
definitely man, and that $50 billion withdraw was definitely
devastating as let's be honest, the bull market went on far longer
and higher than it naturally would have with all that QE and
liquidity. Once the crack was taken away, the patient
(market) went into withdraw systems like a drug addict
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cape_rover - please go and
Steve, Tonight's newsletter - Around the 10 min mark you ...
Posted by steve on 17th of Oct 2018 at 08:13 am
cape_rover - please go and review last weekend's newsletter for starter's which shows multiple longer term index (price) charts. In addition, there was divergence in the NYAD (see chart below). Bear markets are often quite volatile (notice recent action) and thus we could also see snapback rallies (such as yesterday). I sent you a private message so please check your inbox. With that being said, what's most important is to respect price action on various time frames and adjust accordingly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34312302894&a=205943878&r=1539778152689&cmd=print
Outside of technicals, rising interest rates (in addition to QT which many seem to forget about) serve to impede corporate profits (peak profits may be at hand) and thus contract multiples.
See my comments (click on
Posted by steve on 18th of Dec 2018 at 05:33 pm
See my comments (click on title) back in October (along with other references to rising rates/ QT in late spring/summer). While I was certainly looking for price compression, I have to admit the carnage has been stronger than I anticipated in such a short period of time during what is historically stronger seasonality. We are dealing with many uncertainties at this time and there is no historical precedent for QT so it's really hard to determine how its impacting the marketplace. Clearly, the withdrawal of $50 Billion a month is a headwind which is now getting some media coverage (after very little commentary in the preceding months). In addition, we have seen multiple rate increases which make capital more expensive which impacts buybacks, etc. Liquidity is the lifeblood of the market and its clear that bids have been evaporating over time. Respect the trend until evidence changes.
definitely man, and that $50
Posted by matt on 18th of Dec 2018 at 05:36 pm
definitely man, and that $50 billion withdraw was definitely devastating as let's be honest, the bull market went on far longer and higher than it naturally would have with all that QE and liquidity. Once the crack was taken away, the patient (market) went into withdraw systems like a drug addict