Every time there's a big one day selloff in the market, it seems
like the SPY signals a re-entry end of day or next day at the open.
Or, at minimum, everyone expects it. What is it
that signals an immediate re-entry vs the possibility of a
multi-day selloff? I ask because I'm starting to feel like
the system itself is getting complacent; the possibility of a
continued selloff seems to be out of the question; that worries me.
What would it take for the "SPY system" to conclude that a
longer downturn is upon us? And why is it that when an
individual stock sells off strong like the SPY has today, the
re-entry point from a technical perspective is usually dependent
upon a positive signal on the charts that takes time to develop?
What's different?
Probably asking out of lack of technical understanding, but it
would be helpful to me to understand the underlying premise.
best to ask that kind of stuff after hrs when we are not focused
on trading and it gets buried. And or send an email into
support or pm me. Too much to go into right now
Richie please realize I understand your
questions/concerns and will do a discussion on that sometime, maybe
a video would be best, it requires a lot of discussion not a quick
one line answer which is why I said it wasn't possible for me to go
into it in the middle of the day, plus we are trying to monitor the
market and trade as well.
Simply put there are many sub systems, they each look at
different things depending on the system. Some long systems
only do long trades over the 200 day MA on oversold conditions,
others need to be over the 200 day MA but also have additional
criteria such as a positive slope on 200 day MA and 50 day MA etc.
There's so many filters and things, it's not just a quick one
line answer and depends on the sub system. Once one of the systems
are in a trade, it will look average in at better prices based on %
moves and will exit on a bounce, generally not on a hard stop out
(those can be set wide say over the max draw downs if one wants
to). I'll discuss some tonight in the newsletter.
Today the SPY system will be taking a 2nd entry via the Trend
sub system. At this moment the system would look to exit an
oversold bounce vs continuing to hold since. Also various
long systems will get into trades and then after it's in a long
trade the system will realize that the market conditions may have
changed, however the system won't just exit at the lows, it will
then look to get out on an oversold bounce in those cases. I've
tested that kind of stuff every way from Sunday, you always do best
getting out on an oversold bounce vs stopping out a lows
Otherwise in the short term I'm day trading ES, played it once
long once earlier then shorted then went long again on the symmetry
break but went flat again. Carried some SQQQ over from last
week and AMZN short.
Thanks, Matt. In no way did I mean to infringe upon your
time during the trading day. Appreciate you need to focus on
charts and indicators while the market is open.
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Possible SPY 2nd entry today?
Posted by electricjmr on 25th of Jun 2018 at 11:35 am
Possible SPY 2nd entry today?
of course
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2018 at 11:35 am
of course
Every time there's a big
Posted by RichieD on 25th of Jun 2018 at 01:18 pm
Every time there's a big one day selloff in the market, it seems like the SPY signals a re-entry end of day or next day at the open. Or, at minimum, everyone expects it. What is it that signals an immediate re-entry vs the possibility of a multi-day selloff? I ask because I'm starting to feel like the system itself is getting complacent; the possibility of a continued selloff seems to be out of the question; that worries me.
What would it take for the "SPY system" to conclude that a longer downturn is upon us? And why is it that when an individual stock sells off strong like the SPY has today, the re-entry point from a technical perspective is usually dependent upon a positive signal on the charts that takes time to develop? What's different?
Probably asking out of lack of technical understanding, but it would be helpful to me to understand the underlying premise.
best to ask that kind
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2018 at 01:52 pm
best to ask that kind of stuff after hrs when we are not focused on trading and it gets buried. And or send an email into support or pm me. Too much to go into right now
Richie please realize I understand
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2018 at 02:12 pm
Richie please realize I understand your questions/concerns and will do a discussion on that sometime, maybe a video would be best, it requires a lot of discussion not a quick one line answer which is why I said it wasn't possible for me to go into it in the middle of the day, plus we are trying to monitor the market and trade as well.
Simply put there are many sub systems, they each look at different things depending on the system. Some long systems only do long trades over the 200 day MA on oversold conditions, others need to be over the 200 day MA but also have additional criteria such as a positive slope on 200 day MA and 50 day MA etc. There's so many filters and things, it's not just a quick one line answer and depends on the sub system. Once one of the systems are in a trade, it will look average in at better prices based on % moves and will exit on a bounce, generally not on a hard stop out (those can be set wide say over the max draw downs if one wants to). I'll discuss some tonight in the newsletter. Today the SPY system will be taking a 2nd entry via the Trend sub system. At this moment the system would look to exit an oversold bounce vs continuing to hold since. Also various long systems will get into trades and then after it's in a long trade the system will realize that the market conditions may have changed, however the system won't just exit at the lows, it will then look to get out on an oversold bounce in those cases. I've tested that kind of stuff every way from Sunday, you always do best getting out on an oversold bounce vs stopping out a lows
Otherwise in the short term I'm day trading ES, played it once long once earlier then shorted then went long again on the symmetry break but went flat again. Carried some SQQQ over from last week and AMZN short.
Thanks, Matt. In no way
Posted by RichieD on 25th of Jun 2018 at 02:23 pm
Thanks, Matt. In no way did I mean to infringe upon your time during the trading day. Appreciate you need to focus on charts and indicators while the market is open.