remember guys.....breath - if a bear market is starting it will
be a while before it really gets going. Just like 2000, the
market topped in March, but it wasn't until late 2000 that it
really started going. After a top is in, as I discussed the
market will have the initial strong sell off then spend time
chopping around and rallying up to form a lower high that takes a
while, before it's ready for the main down leg of the bear market,
that can take months. Time is needed to cause the longer term
MA's to roll over and flatten out so that they can begin down
sloping. The long term MA's still have too much upward slope
- it's gonna take time for them to roll over.
do yourself a favor, make a daily chart, add the 200 day MA,
then make a weekly chart, add some MA's. go back and look
over 100 years of bear markets, they all do that, they don't just
top and go straight down, especially in the initial stages.
What has almost always happened from what I saw is that you
get the initial top and hard sell off, then price spends months
recovering and nearly gets back to the highs, but it takes a lot of
time, that time is what allows the slope of the longer term MA's to
flatten out and then allow for the stronger sell off on the next
leg of those bear markets.
again don't be emotional, stop reading tons of blog posts and
things on twitter and CNBC, actually do the work like I did, go
back and look at every bear market, add some long term MA's and you
will see what I am talking about.
here's two charts to illustrate this since you guys are using
the 2000 top as comparison. here's a chart of NDX from 2000
and one from current. Notice the MA's on the current NDX
chart, they are NOT like they were in late 2000 when the bear
market starting gaining force in its next leg down, they are more
like the first correction where price recovered for about 6 months
forming a 2nd higher low. Right now the MA's are too strong
- this is simple stuff, do you see this? again compare the two
charts MA configuration, see what it is currently, does that look
like late 2000? No it doesn't, at best more like early 2000 April ,
and you still had another 5 - 6 months while prices worked higher
to form a higher low
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Dow Theory Signal https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-theory-sell-signal-is-now-just-one-step-away-from-being-triggered-2018-03-24
Posted by coastbc on 25th of Mar 2018 at 10:59 am
Dow Theory Signal
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-theory-sell-signal-is-now-just-one-step-away-from-being-triggered-2018-03-24
remember guys.....breath - if a
Posted by matt on 25th of Mar 2018 at 01:15 pm
remember guys.....breath - if a bear market is starting it will be a while before it really gets going. Just like 2000, the market topped in March, but it wasn't until late 2000 that it really started going. After a top is in, as I discussed the market will have the initial strong sell off then spend time chopping around and rallying up to form a lower high that takes a while, before it's ready for the main down leg of the bear market, that can take months. Time is needed to cause the longer term MA's to roll over and flatten out so that they can begin down sloping. The long term MA's still have too much upward slope - it's gonna take time for them to roll over.
do yourself a favor, make a daily chart, add the 200 day MA, then make a weekly chart, add some MA's. go back and look over 100 years of bear markets, they all do that, they don't just top and go straight down, especially in the initial stages. What has almost always happened from what I saw is that you get the initial top and hard sell off, then price spends months recovering and nearly gets back to the highs, but it takes a lot of time, that time is what allows the slope of the longer term MA's to flatten out and then allow for the stronger sell off on the next leg of those bear markets.
again don't be emotional, stop reading tons of blog posts and things on twitter and CNBC, actually do the work like I did, go back and look at every bear market, add some long term MA's and you will see what I am talking about.
here's two charts to illustrate this since you guys are using the 2000 top as comparison. here's a chart of NDX from 2000 and one from current. Notice the MA's on the current NDX chart, they are NOT like they were in late 2000 when the bear market starting gaining force in its next leg down, they are more like the first correction where price recovered for about 6 months forming a 2nd higher low. Right now the MA's are too strong - this is simple stuff, do you see this? again compare the two charts MA configuration, see what it is currently, does that look like late 2000? No it doesn't, at best more like early 2000 April , and you still had another 5 - 6 months while prices worked higher to form a higher low