Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Oct 2008 at 04:38 pm
Matt/Steve, Would you recommend holding SDS or selling it in the
aftermarket today? It broke its Fib retracement at 919, so the move
down to test 840 is in the cards. Am I right here? I also see that
SDS finished at the top of its range, which is itself a sell
signal. Please comment on this. Thanks in advance. -Roy
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Oct 2008 at 05:46 pm
I've just sold SDS at 108.02 in the aftermarket (it closed at
103.56). I guess I could buy it back below my sell price then. I do
not understand how SDS could go up in price in the aftermarket.
Anyway, I am letting myself be critiqued on this trade if someone
is willing to analyze what a proper move would be in this
situation. I am all ears and eager to learn from you, trading
masters. Thanks, Roy
I think the market is waking up to the likelihood that no amount
of government intervention is going to stop the current
deleveraging and deflation trend. May have a real crash and
capitulation dead ahead. I know, I know, trade the charts but
I'm factoring this scenario in. VIX remains stubbornly high,
but no where near the VIX equivalent high of over 150 in the 87
crash. Hedge funds dumping and that seems to be accelerating
along with margin calls.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Oct 2008 at 06:00 pm
Well, Paulson could talk the market up or down, and usually
after big drops like today market opens higher. But, from the
technical point of view, what was the proper action on my part? And
what factors should I have considered to make my decision? About
half of the time I trade on a whim. LOL! -Roy
From my viewpoint and use, the dynamic 15 and 60-min.
charts of the S&P and Nas are the most valuable contributions
that you make to the blog each day. When they are available,
I review them many times each day. Yes, I know that you are
busy, but, if all all possible, please continue to have them
available as much as you can.
I agree that dynamic charts are more useful, however that's why
I post both (snapshots and dynamic) because many here don't have
Stockchart memberships. I posted several snaphot pictures
today of the indexes, however I also already have dynamic links
above, so when I already have a dynamic link in a Sticky, there is
no reason for me to keep posting the same dynamic link.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Oct 2008 at 02:38 pm
Matt, Are Fib. retracements resistances? Yesterday, 978 was
resistance because we were going up. Now, the closest retracement
is 967. Yet, I could sense resistance at 980, because this is were
stock buys were made yesterday. Could you please comment on that,
please? Thanks!
we don't know yet, the whole move up also could have been wave A
of 4, with a B pullback then another C up move; the nature of the
pullback will tell us a lot.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Oct 2008 at 10:47 am
Matt, one more question please. Does wave 5 have to go lower
than wave 3 when it is complete? In other words, are the lows from
Friday going to be undercut, equal to, or not approached
fully when wave 5 is completed? As rp mentioned, many traders
believe that on Friday we put a bottom, so I am wondering where
should or would wave 5 end upon its completion? Thanks in advance.
-Roy
Roy, even truncated moves retrace 100% to 95% plus.
Remember this pullback might simply be a B wave pullback in wave 4,
which would provide a buying opp, watch those Fib
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S&P 60 min chart dynamic NDX
Posted by matt on 14th of Oct 2008 at 09:37 am
S&P 60 min chart dynamic
NDX 60 min chart dynamic
SDS: Hold or sell
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Oct 2008 at 04:38 pm
Matt/Steve, Would you recommend holding SDS or selling it in the aftermarket today? It broke its Fib retracement at 919, so the move down to test 840 is in the cards. Am I right here? I also see that SDS finished at the top of its range, which is itself a sell signal. Please comment on this. Thanks in advance. -Roy
SDS in the aftermarket
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Oct 2008 at 05:46 pm
I've just sold SDS at 108.02 in the aftermarket (it closed at 103.56). I guess I could buy it back below my sell price then. I do not understand how SDS could go up in price in the aftermarket. Anyway, I am letting myself be critiqued on this trade if someone is willing to analyze what a proper move would be in this situation. I am all ears and eager to learn from you, trading masters. Thanks, Roy
SPY trading down A/H....I think
Posted by dylan398 on 15th of Oct 2008 at 05:53 pm
SPY trading down A/H....I think we may see a HUGE drop pre/kt tomorrow...hope not
I think the market is
Posted by homer on 15th of Oct 2008 at 06:01 pm
I think the market is waking up to the likelihood that no amount of government intervention is going to stop the current deleveraging and deflation trend. May have a real crash and capitulation dead ahead. I know, I know, trade the charts but I'm factoring this scenario in. VIX remains stubbornly high, but no where near the VIX equivalent high of over 150 in the 87 crash. Hedge funds dumping and that seems to be accelerating along with margin calls.
Well, Paulson could talk the
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Oct 2008 at 06:00 pm
Well, Paulson could talk the market up or down, and usually after big drops like today market opens higher. But, from the technical point of view, what was the proper action on my part? And what factors should I have considered to make my decision? About half of the time I trade on a whim. LOL! -Roy
Matt -- Dynamic charts
Posted by trader2 on 14th of Oct 2008 at 06:31 pm
Matt,
From my viewpoint and use, the dynamic 15 and 60-min. charts of the S&P and Nas are the most valuable contributions that you make to the blog each day. When they are available, I review them many times each day. Yes, I know that you are busy, but, if all all possible, please continue to have them available as much as you can.
Thank you.
trader2
I agree that dynamic charts
Posted by matt on 14th of Oct 2008 at 07:04 pm
I agree that dynamic charts are more useful, however that's why I post both (snapshots and dynamic) because many here don't have Stockchart memberships. I posted several snaphot pictures today of the indexes, however I also already have dynamic links above, so when I already have a dynamic link in a Sticky, there is no reason for me to keep posting the same dynamic link.
Fib. retracements
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Oct 2008 at 02:38 pm
Matt, Are Fib. retracements resistances? Yesterday, 978 was resistance because we were going up. Now, the closest retracement is 967. Yet, I could sense resistance at 980, because this is were stock buys were made yesterday. Could you please comment on that, please? Thanks!
Wave4 End?
Posted by yawang36 on 14th of Oct 2008 at 10:06 am
Matt, Steve, do you think wave 4 end?
we don't know yet, the
Posted by matt on 14th of Oct 2008 at 10:08 am
we don't know yet, the whole move up also could have been wave A of 4, with a B pullback then another C up move; the nature of the pullback will tell us a lot.
Wave 5
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Oct 2008 at 10:47 am
Matt, one more question please. Does wave 5 have to go lower than wave 3 when it is complete? In other words, are the lows from Friday going to be undercut, equal to, or not approached fully when wave 5 is completed? As rp mentioned, many traders believe that on Friday we put a bottom, so I am wondering where should or would wave 5 end upon its completion? Thanks in advance. -Roy
no, 5th waves can sometimes
Posted by matt on 14th of Oct 2008 at 10:53 am
no, 5th waves can sometimes truncate, which means they either test the wave 3 highs/lows or get close. This is usually rare but possible
Truncated 5th wave.gif
Wave 5 target
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Oct 2008 at 11:00 am
Is it safe to assume that wave 5 would at least retrace 61% of the upward move?
Roy, even truncated moves retrace
Posted by matt on 14th of Oct 2008 at 11:18 am
Roy, even truncated moves retrace 100% to 95% plus. Remember this pullback might simply be a B wave pullback in wave 4, which would provide a buying opp, watch those Fib