My SPY System  gave a BUY

    Posted by jtverr on 14th of Feb 2018 at 03:49 pm

    My SPY System  gave a BUY Signal today.  Resistance at $272, which would form a cup and handle, then maybe target the green line at $275.  The C&H would measure to $286.

    60 SPX points since trigger

    Posted by jtverr on 16th of Feb 2018 at 11:20 am

    60 SPX points since trigger and counting.....

    hopefully you have more rules

    Posted by matt on 16th of Feb 2018 at 11:46 am

    hopefully you have more rules to your system than just  13/34 MA EMA cross,  A serious of filters that filter out bad trades, delay trades, have you enter earlier at times, exit earlier at times, because I showed the statistics the other day, following every 13/34 EMA cross is losing system over the long term.  MA systems need many other rules to them, they are not profitable with just the MA cross alone. 

    sure it's up 60 points on this trade, the market is having big swings, any MA cross will work in that environment, it's in other market environments that it wont.  60 points in this market is a small move lately.

    I would say that it got you in too late, the MA's crossed up on Wed.  However it was pretty obvious that the market put in some sort of capitulation low on Friday with the big hammers off the 200 day MA's, the 200 MA was an easy buy however another trigger was simply placing a buy stop over Friday's doji high, which triggerd on Monday morning, days before waiting for a 13/34 cross.  

    If the market goes back to new highs from here and they recover this without much of a pullback, the 13/34 will probably keep  you in.  But if the market forms a higher low soay next week and pulls back again, waiting for the 13/34 EMA to cross back down would likely get you out very late

    for anyone considering trading that

    Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:07 pm

    for anyone considering trading that 13/34 EMA cross strategy here's some statistics I ran on a 60 min SPY chart going back 20 years.  As you can see, you need more than that, you have to employ filters etc, if you just take every cross you will die of 1000 cuts over time. 

    Long/Short PF of 0.93 and 30% winning trades

    Long only a bit better at 1.1 PF and 33.74% winners but obviously awful

    again MA cross strats good in trendtimes, but in chop times will chop you to death

    jtver - realize I didn't post

    Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:13 pm

    jtver - realize I didn't post those stats to mess with you, that was for any novices or newbies who may be here not to think they can just trade a 13/34 EMA to profits being that easy..

    We actually had someone see your 13/34 EMA post I think it was last week, and send us a message telling us they were just gonna trade that since it looked good.   My post is to clear that up, the 13/34 EMA cross is no magic strategy, you have to employ many filters and decision making along with that 13/34 EMA cross to tell you when not to take signals, when to exit earlier, enter earlier etc.  

    Hey Matt, thanks for putting

    Posted by shanebofl on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:36 pm

    Hey Matt, thanks for putting that into perspective and backing it with stats. And FYI to anyone new to this site, BPT actually does have systems that employ several filters for 3 different time frames:. Very long term is the 401k Paint Dry System; Medium term is the BPT MA Deluxe; Shorter term is the SPY pro system. Anyone splitting $ between all 3 systems wouldn't have been killed in the crash last week since two were already in cash.

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!