My SPY System
gave a BUY Signal today. Resistance at $272, which
would form a cup and handle, then maybe target the green line at
$275. The C&H would measure to $286.
hopefully you have more rules to your system than just
13/34 MA EMA cross, A serious of filters that filter
out bad trades, delay trades, have you enter earlier at times, exit
earlier at times, because I showed the statistics the other day,
following every 13/34 EMA cross is losing system over the long
term. MA systems need many other rules to them, they are not
profitable with just the MA cross alone.
sure it's up 60 points on this trade, the market is having big
swings, any MA cross will work in that environment, it's in other
market environments that it wont. 60 points in this market is
a small move lately.
I would say that it got you in too late, the MA's crossed up on
Wed. However it was pretty obvious that the market put in
some sort of capitulation low on Friday with the big hammers off
the 200 day MA's, the 200 MA was an easy buy however another
trigger was simply placing a buy stop over Friday's doji high,
which triggerd on Monday morning, days before waiting for a 13/34
cross.
If the market goes back to new highs from here and they recover
this without much of a pullback, the 13/34 will probably keep
you in. But if the market forms a higher low soay next
week and pulls back again, waiting for the 13/34 EMA to cross back
down would likely get you out very late
for anyone considering trading that 13/34 EMA cross strategy
here's some statistics I ran on a 60 min SPY chart going back 20
years. As you can see, you need more than that, you have to
employ filters etc, if you just take every cross you will die of
1000 cuts over time.
Long/Short PF of 0.93 and 30% winning trades
Long only a bit better at 1.1 PF and 33.74% winners but
obviously awful
again MA cross strats good in trendtimes, but in chop times will
chop you to death
jtver - realize I didn't post those stats to
mess with you, that was for any novices or newbies who may be here
not to think they can just trade a 13/34 EMA to profits being that
easy..
We actually had someone see your 13/34 EMA post I think it was
last week, and send us a message telling us they were just gonna
trade that since it looked good. My post is to clear that
up, the 13/34 EMA cross is no magic strategy, you have to employ
many filters and decision making along with that 13/34 EMA cross to
tell you when not to take signals, when to exit earlier, enter
earlier etc.
Posted by shanebofl on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:36 pm
Hey Matt, thanks for putting that into perspective and backing
it with stats. And FYI to anyone new to this site, BPT actually
does have systems that employ several filters for 3 different time
frames:. Very long term is the 401k Paint Dry System; Medium term
is the BPT MA Deluxe; Shorter term is the SPY pro system. Anyone
splitting $ between all 3 systems wouldn't have been killed in the
crash last week since two were already in cash.
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My SPY System gave a BUY
Posted by jtverr on 14th of Feb 2018 at 03:49 pm
My SPY System gave a BUY Signal today. Resistance at $272, which would form a cup and handle, then maybe target the green line at $275. The C&H would measure to $286.
60 SPX points since trigger
Posted by jtverr on 16th of Feb 2018 at 11:20 am
60 SPX points since trigger and counting.....
hopefully you have more rules
Posted by matt on 16th of Feb 2018 at 11:46 am
hopefully you have more rules to your system than just 13/34 MA EMA cross, A serious of filters that filter out bad trades, delay trades, have you enter earlier at times, exit earlier at times, because I showed the statistics the other day, following every 13/34 EMA cross is losing system over the long term. MA systems need many other rules to them, they are not profitable with just the MA cross alone.
sure it's up 60 points on this trade, the market is having big swings, any MA cross will work in that environment, it's in other market environments that it wont. 60 points in this market is a small move lately.
I would say that it got you in too late, the MA's crossed up on Wed. However it was pretty obvious that the market put in some sort of capitulation low on Friday with the big hammers off the 200 day MA's, the 200 MA was an easy buy however another trigger was simply placing a buy stop over Friday's doji high, which triggerd on Monday morning, days before waiting for a 13/34 cross.
If the market goes back to new highs from here and they recover this without much of a pullback, the 13/34 will probably keep you in. But if the market forms a higher low soay next week and pulls back again, waiting for the 13/34 EMA to cross back down would likely get you out very late
for anyone considering trading that
Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:07 pm
for anyone considering trading that 13/34 EMA cross strategy here's some statistics I ran on a 60 min SPY chart going back 20 years. As you can see, you need more than that, you have to employ filters etc, if you just take every cross you will die of 1000 cuts over time.
Long/Short PF of 0.93 and 30% winning trades
Long only a bit better at 1.1 PF and 33.74% winners but obviously awful
again MA cross strats good in trendtimes, but in chop times will chop you to death
jtver - realize I didn't post
Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:13 pm
jtver - realize I didn't post those stats to mess with you, that was for any novices or newbies who may be here not to think they can just trade a 13/34 EMA to profits being that easy..
We actually had someone see your 13/34 EMA post I think it was last week, and send us a message telling us they were just gonna trade that since it looked good. My post is to clear that up, the 13/34 EMA cross is no magic strategy, you have to employ many filters and decision making along with that 13/34 EMA cross to tell you when not to take signals, when to exit earlier, enter earlier etc.
Hey Matt, thanks for putting
Posted by shanebofl on 14th of Feb 2018 at 04:36 pm
Hey Matt, thanks for putting that into perspective and backing it with stats. And FYI to anyone new to this site, BPT actually does have systems that employ several filters for 3 different time frames:. Very long term is the 401k Paint Dry System; Medium term is the BPT MA Deluxe; Shorter term is the SPY pro system. Anyone splitting $ between all 3 systems wouldn't have been killed in the crash last week since two were already in cash.