A couple weeks back Steve

    Posted by jacksoncrack on 5th of Jan 2018 at 01:07 pm

    A couple weeks back Steve flagged BGFV (Big Five Sporting Goods) as a trade idea, it tanked shortly after but for whatever reason that chart stuck out to me so I went digging. 8% Dividend, P/E of 7.5 seemed crazy. 20 million shares outstanding, 50% short interest. Why. Earnings are declining. Ok. Certainly not to zero. Competitors, Sports Authority and Sports Chalet just went out of business. A Director just bought ~40,000 shares (He sold them in March at $15 a share). Well that's positive. They have 16.5M set aside for stock buyback. Their tax rate will decrease by over a third, which should theoretically increase their earnings by as much, no? They buy back 16.5M worth of shares, reducing the float to ~17.8M, which means they pay less out in dividends and keep more cash (or pay higher dividends) and earnings ratchet up because of tax decrease, their earnings practically double to $1.50 making them a stock with a P/E of 4.6  and a dividend yield of 8%. A P/E of 7.5, gives them a value of $11.25 easy, and their average annual P/E is more like 10-12. I bought some because it just bounced off its 50% retracement line on the latest move. The most important fact of all is that I walked into a Big 5 this week to check them out and two crows sat staring at me as I walked into the store, one in a tree and one on top of the building.  And everyone who studies sorcery knows that two crows is an omen of good luck. Someone please punch holes in this analysis. Would love to hear thoughts from anyone else who's looked at this.

    Jackson - I sent you

    Posted by steve on 6th of Jan 2018 at 11:49 am

    Jackson - I sent you a few private messages regarding you post on Friday. 

    Jackson - good fundamental work pertaining to BGFV -  I like to also focus on EBITDA  and what multiple peers in the sector are valued at based up this minus debt.   It reminds me somewhat of BBRG in the restaurant space as a value play which has been out of favor compared to growth.  

    BGFV surprisingly released early 4th

    Posted by jacksoncrack on 8th of Jan 2018 at 04:49 pm

    BGFV surprisingly released early 4th quarter numbers. Bloodbath after hours. :(

    Thank you for the info Steve.

    Jackson, Good take on this, but

    Posted by jdaswani on 5th of Jan 2018 at 01:41 pm

    Jackson,

    Good take on this, but wanted to highlight 2 items.

    Revenues have been shrinking. Same Store Sales a declining and lack of innovation/ competition from DICKS continues to hurt them. Lets assume all is equal, FY 2016, If you apply 21% Corp Tax Rate, all else stays same, EPS goes to $1.02 from 76c. So nice lift to eps. But realistically, you cant do that since they still have state taxes to pay, CA is a large % of the stores outstanding. California has 226 stores or 52.3% of all locations.

    Remember CA is one of the states getting squeezed by new taxes. Just a thot. 

    just an fyi, state income

    Posted by morton7 on 5th of Jan 2018 at 02:50 pm

    just an fyi, state income taxes are not limited in the corporate tax world only on the individual side.

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!