Posted by sbaxman111 on 25th of Apr 2017 at 02:54 pm
I was looking at Matt's Sell in May and Go Away
information, along with the paint dry system trade dates.
It struck me that combining the "Paint Dry" system into the
mix would have meant that no trade would have taken place in Oct
2008 for the Sell in May system - because "Paint Dry" was in
CASH in Oct of 2008. Instead of buying at 9065.12 in Oct 2008, that
buy would have been postponed until 3-31-09 when Paint Dry went
long again.
Sell in May then went to cash on 4-21 09 for a 4.75% gain
instead of a -12.08% loss. Hypothetical compounding of that
positive result, instead of the 12% loss, puts the compounded total
for Sell in May at something like $2,556,888 instead of Matt's
hypothetical $2,144,644 that is listed in the data.
Another example of how important it is to eliminate or
lessen losses by going to 100% cash at times - something the Wall
Street types think is impossible to do successfully.
sbaxman - yes I had thought about it a while back and I'm
working a marriage i.e. combined version of the sell in may along
with the monthly 401K paint dry. When I have it ready I'll
share the stats
Paint DRY enhances "Sell in May" stats
Posted by sbaxman111 on 25th of Apr 2017 at 02:54 pm
I was looking at Matt's Sell in May and Go Away information, along with the paint dry system trade dates.
It struck me that combining the "Paint Dry" system into the mix would have meant that no trade would have taken place in Oct 2008 for the Sell in May system - because "Paint Dry" was in CASH in Oct of 2008. Instead of buying at 9065.12 in Oct 2008, that buy would have been postponed until 3-31-09 when Paint Dry went long again.
Sell in May then went to cash on 4-21 09 for a 4.75% gain instead of a -12.08% loss. Hypothetical compounding of that positive result, instead of the 12% loss, puts the compounded total for Sell in May at something like $2,556,888 instead of Matt's hypothetical $2,144,644 that is listed in the data.
Another example of how important it is to eliminate or lessen losses by going to 100% cash at times - something the Wall Street types think is impossible to do successfully.
sbaxman - yes I had
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2017 at 10:33 am
sbaxman - yes I had thought about it a while back and I'm working a marriage i.e. combined version of the sell in may along with the monthly 401K paint dry. When I have it ready I'll share the stats
Nice Analysis!
Posted by Denis on 25th of Apr 2017 at 03:59 pm
Good to know. I'll keep that in mind. Thanks. Cheers, Denis.