SPY Pro system possible short trade

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 02:01 pm

    FYI this trade type is very fast, it could possible close out today if the market is down!

    should the market hold up today, looks like SPY has to close at 237 or above (note this could change by a few pennies as indicators move throughout the day) for this condition to occur.  The trade type would be the Exhaustion Short 2, which is basically a reversion to mean type of trade.  It's not looking for a home run short, basically just a quick pullback. In fact the average time for this trade is only about 4 days to put that into perspective.  

    I'll confirm near or after the close, this is just an early heads up.  If confirmed the system will short a 60% position in SPY.

    Again the exhaustion short #2

    Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2017 at 10:03 am

    Again the exhaustion short #2 is a very rare trade condition that only looks for very over extended moves and a quick reversion to mean pullback. For example the. Dow was up 12 days in a row, which historically is very rare and you would expect a pullback. Now that's NOT why this trade entered, but it's a similar type of condition, the market was too over extended and it sensed that.

    The typical hold time for this trade type is about 4 - 5 days. One of these trades held for only one day in the past, that particular trade went short on 7/27/2009 and covered on 7/28/2009.

    This short trade on the

    Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2017 at 09:47 am

    This short trade on the SPY system may close out today if the market stays down.  As I said it's a very rare short and these are held very short term, typically 3 days or 4, however it could possible close out today if the market stayed down.  I will let you know later today

    At this moment the signal

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:58 pm

    At this moment the signal is lost, price needs to bounce back to confirm, as I said in my statement the threshold or breakpoint can move because as the day ticks on indicators move, so while the breakpoint earlier was 237 it's not longer the case, it's higher than that.  This may be too close to call until after the close

    Spy Pro System

    Posted by dahbull on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:16 pm

    Pardon my ignorance, if this is a reversion to mean trade why go long the SPY?  Shouldn't we go short?  FYI:  I read the F&Q, but I"m missing the logic.

    Clarification as I understand it...

    Posted by shanebofl on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:37 pm

    Dahbull, yes you are correct. If conditions hold up, the system will issue a short (you would short SPY, although I buy SH which is the 1X bear/short ETF.) When Matt said a 60% position in SPY, he means a short position.

    SPY trade

    Posted by dakotadj on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:32 pm

    This will be a short trade on the SPY to take advantage of the overbought conditions. Looking for a Reversion to Mean .  This will  NOT be a long trade.

    Spy pro

    Posted by kab34 on 27th of Feb 2017 at 02:13 pm

    do you mean a short via SH?

    The system stats are via

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 02:15 pm

    The system stats are via SPY for first entry both long and short and SSO and SDS for the second entry.  You can trade what fits your style whether that's SH or deep in the money puts etc

    I suggest you read the FAQ in the SPY Pro system section

    SPY dividend date is March

    Posted by dougnash on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:26 pm

    SPY dividend date is March 17 so any holders of that short will have to pay the divy. (Just in case it turns into a lengthier hold time)

     

    good point regarding the dividend,

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 04:40 pm

    good point regarding the dividend, if the system holds the trade that long we'll decide options on what to do, however the average hold time for this trade is only 3 - 4 days so we may not have to worry about that

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