FYI this trade type is very fast, it could possible close
out today if the market is down!
should the market hold up today, looks like SPY has to close at
237 or above (note this could change by a few pennies as indicators
move throughout the day) for this condition to occur. The
trade type would be the Exhaustion Short 2, which is basically a
reversion to mean type of trade. It's not looking for a home
run short, basically just a quick pullback. In fact the average
time for this trade is only about 4 days to put that into
perspective.
I'll confirm near or after the close, this is just an early
heads up. If confirmed the system will short a 60% position
in SPY.
Again the exhaustion short #2 is
a very rare trade condition that only looks for very over extended
moves and a quick reversion to mean pullback. For example the. Dow
was up 12 days in a row, which historically is very rare and you
would expect a pullback. Now that's NOT why this trade entered, but
it's a similar type of condition, the market was too over extended
and it sensed that.
The typical hold time for this
trade type is about 4 - 5 days. One of these trades held for only
one day in the past, that particular trade went short on 7/27/2009
and covered on 7/28/2009.
This short trade on the SPY system may close out today if the
market stays down. As I said it's a very rare short and these
are held very short term, typically 3 days or 4, however it could
possible close out today if the market stayed down. I will
let you know later today
At this moment the signal is lost, price needs to bounce back to
confirm, as I said in my statement the threshold or breakpoint can
move because as the day ticks on indicators move, so while the
breakpoint earlier was 237 it's not longer the case, it's higher
than that. This may be too close to call until after the
close
Posted by shanebofl on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:37 pm
Dahbull, yes you are correct. If conditions hold up, the system
will issue a short (you would short SPY, although I buy SH which is
the 1X bear/short ETF.) When Matt said a 60% position in SPY, he
means a short position.
The system stats are via SPY for first entry both long and short
and SSO and SDS for the second entry. You can trade what fits
your style whether that's SH or deep in the money puts etc
I suggest you read the FAQ in the SPY Pro system
section
good point regarding the dividend, if the system holds the trade
that long we'll decide options on what to do, however the average
hold time for this trade is only 3 - 4 days so we may not have to
worry about that
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SPY Pro system possible short trade
Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 02:01 pm
FYI this trade type is very fast, it could possible close out today if the market is down!
should the market hold up today, looks like SPY has to close at 237 or above (note this could change by a few pennies as indicators move throughout the day) for this condition to occur. The trade type would be the Exhaustion Short 2, which is basically a reversion to mean type of trade. It's not looking for a home run short, basically just a quick pullback. In fact the average time for this trade is only about 4 days to put that into perspective.
I'll confirm near or after the close, this is just an early heads up. If confirmed the system will short a 60% position in SPY.
Again the exhaustion short #2
Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2017 at 10:03 am
Again the exhaustion short #2 is a very rare trade condition that only looks for very over extended moves and a quick reversion to mean pullback. For example the. Dow was up 12 days in a row, which historically is very rare and you would expect a pullback. Now that's NOT why this trade entered, but it's a similar type of condition, the market was too over extended and it sensed that.
The typical hold time for this trade type is about 4 - 5 days. One of these trades held for only one day in the past, that particular trade went short on 7/27/2009 and covered on 7/28/2009.
This short trade on the
Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2017 at 09:47 am
This short trade on the SPY system may close out today if the market stays down. As I said it's a very rare short and these are held very short term, typically 3 days or 4, however it could possible close out today if the market stayed down. I will let you know later today
At this moment the signal
Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:58 pm
At this moment the signal is lost, price needs to bounce back to confirm, as I said in my statement the threshold or breakpoint can move because as the day ticks on indicators move, so while the breakpoint earlier was 237 it's not longer the case, it's higher than that. This may be too close to call until after the close
Spy Pro System
Posted by dahbull on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:16 pm
Pardon my ignorance, if this is a reversion to mean trade why go long the SPY? Shouldn't we go short? FYI: I read the F&Q, but I"m missing the logic.
Clarification as I understand it...
Posted by shanebofl on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:37 pm
Dahbull, yes you are correct. If conditions hold up, the system will issue a short (you would short SPY, although I buy SH which is the 1X bear/short ETF.) When Matt said a 60% position in SPY, he means a short position.
SPY trade
Posted by dakotadj on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:32 pm
This will be a short trade on the SPY to take advantage of the overbought conditions. Looking for a Reversion to Mean . This will NOT be a long trade.
Spy pro
Posted by kab34 on 27th of Feb 2017 at 02:13 pm
do you mean a short via SH?
The system stats are via
Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 02:15 pm
The system stats are via SPY for first entry both long and short and SSO and SDS for the second entry. You can trade what fits your style whether that's SH or deep in the money puts etc
I suggest you read the FAQ in the SPY Pro system section
SPY dividend date is March
Posted by dougnash on 27th of Feb 2017 at 03:26 pm
SPY dividend date is March 17 so any holders of that short will have to pay the divy. (Just in case it turns into a lengthier hold time)
good point regarding the dividend,
Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2017 at 04:40 pm
good point regarding the dividend, if the system holds the trade that long we'll decide options on what to do, however the average hold time for this trade is only 3 - 4 days so we may not have to worry about that