http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/there-no-downside-metals-investors

Excerpt:  So, as we are now striking the support regions we were looking towards back in September, I think we have a small window left for the bulls to be stepping forward. If we are correct that the market is now bottoming out, then you have an opportunity to buy into the market at prices you may not again see in your lifetime.  However, if we are wrong, and are forced to stop out, and the market drops to levels below the lows seen in December and January, offering us another “sale” in the market, I view that as a huge opportunity for metals investors, and not something to be feared.  So, to be honest, is there really any downside in either of these situations for long term metals investors?  For those that really understand the long-term opportunity in the complex, the answer is a clear “no.”

For now, my primary expectation is that the markets are bottoming, and are going to begin their next bull market phase in the near term.  As long as silver holds 16, GLD holds the 111/112 region, and GDX holds 19.80, then there is nothing to worry about.  However, as I have noted many times, the metals may spike below their ideal supports, and then strongly reverse, which often happens in markets, as it shakes out those counting on support to hold and then turns back up.  This is why one should always place their stops just under their ideal support regions.

So, I will note that there is a 15.75 level of secondary support below in silver and 18.70 in GDX, below which the bears can very well take control of the market again to drop it to levels lower than those seen this past December and January.  A break below 18.70 in GDX will then set us up for a test of 16.50-17, which if broken, points to as low as 7-9 in the GDX.  Again, this is not my primary expectation at this point in time, but I always have to understand the risk in the market at any point in time so that I am seeing the market as it is rather than as I hope it to be.