Posted by bluezango on 18th of Jul 2016 at 11:04 am
wow! VXX Low. Just hit a 52week low 11.49 No, no
paper trade data or back testing. I am using a 1% stop for a 3-4-5%
target upside. No, to subjective (Steve), or trigger (Matt)
basis. My assumption for downside risk scenario: doji, doji,
doji, etc.. and S&P just goes up 6 points at day consistently.
(calm and slightly up indefintitely, while the VXX decomposes
slowly.
Interesting: The table below shows
VIXlevels with the expected
volatility in the S&P 500 on a monthly or daily basis. Keep in
mind that we are talking about volatility, not the expected return
or change.
On weekly time frame $VIX is still far from oversold and on
daily is still not too oversold. Pay more attention to S&P
index which will exercise its power on $VIX. Matt mentioned in
yesterday's letter S&P500 looks boooolish and even if corrects
a little bit mostly by time than price this might not affect
volatility. Also people are often buying puts to hedge what
basically means they are buying insurance wishing to loose on it -
but puts they buy show up on puts/calls ratios and will affect
volatility numbers without much of the reason. On my chart
volatility can easily go in $11.20-11.40. And breakout can be also
down and not up.
Any of you who is thinking about trading VXX: without all the
rollbacks and rollovers and flipovers VXX would be around $7500.
Perfect tool to destroy portfolio if you are not very, very
careful.
bluezango, it looks like a
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by frtaylor on 15th of Jul 2016 at 05:21 pm
bluezango, it looks like a solid trade idea. Do you have paper traded data to support? What, if any, is your stop? Also, I pm'd you on another topic.
wow! VXX Low. Just hit
Posted by bluezango on 18th of Jul 2016 at 11:04 am
wow! VXX Low. Just hit a 52week low 11.49 No, no paper trade data or back testing. I am using a 1% stop for a 3-4-5% target upside. No, to subjective (Steve), or trigger (Matt) basis. My assumption for downside risk scenario: doji, doji, doji, etc.. and S&P just goes up 6 points at day consistently. (calm and slightly up indefintitely, while the VXX decomposes slowly.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:volatility_index
Interesting: The table below shows VIXlevels with the expected volatility in the S&P 500 on a monthly or daily basis. Keep in mind that we are talking about volatility, not the expected return or change.
On weekly time frame $VIX
Posted by mulisko on 18th of Jul 2016 at 11:36 am
On weekly time frame $VIX is still far from oversold and on daily is still not too oversold. Pay more attention to S&P index which will exercise its power on $VIX. Matt mentioned in yesterday's letter S&P500 looks boooolish and even if corrects a little bit mostly by time than price this might not affect volatility. Also people are often buying puts to hedge what basically means they are buying insurance wishing to loose on it - but puts they buy show up on puts/calls ratios and will affect volatility numbers without much of the reason. On my chart volatility can easily go in $11.20-11.40. And breakout can be also down and not up.
Yep, stopped out on VXX.
Posted by bluezango on 18th of Jul 2016 at 02:23 pm
Yep, stopped out on VXX. Boy is it quiet and "non-volatile" :) VIX at 12.44% and VXX at 11.42
Any of you who is
Posted by mulisko on 18th of Jul 2016 at 04:29 pm
Any of you who is thinking about trading VXX: without all the rollbacks and rollovers and flipovers VXX would be around $7500. Perfect tool to destroy portfolio if you are not very, very careful.
I've actually been holding a
Posted by frtaylor on 19th of Jul 2016 at 10:58 am
I've actually been holding a small position in SVXY in my IRA. Doing very well, and with the SPX breakout I may buy more on any pullback to support.