Posted by bluezango on 10th of Aug 2016 at 02:29 pm
Seems designed to fool you and shake you out. All my (day
early) short S&P (SH) and Long VIX (VXX) got stopped out
yesterday when S&P breached 2186/2187 above resistance of
previous highs of 2185.
I know, trade what is in front of you with subjective
triggers.
Posted by bluezango on 8th of Aug 2016 at 10:48 am
Normally, if VIX up, VXX, TVIX, UVXY go up. Not Today:
VIX +2.28%, VXX -1.43%, TVIX -2.92%, UVXY -2.89%
ZIV +.74%, XIV +1.68%, SVXY +2.19%
Yes, these instruments are not directly based on VIX. S&P
500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. The index seeks to offer exposure
to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is
designed to measure the return from a rolling long position in the
first and second month VIX futures contracts.
Posted by bluezango on 4th of Aug 2016 at 11:03 am
Boy, this market cannot decide what to do. Unprecedented
flatness and volatility. S&P just hitting the previous
support 2,159-2,165 (old channel) and now major
resistance.
My opinion is that Oil going from 50-52 range to 39-40 range is
the event or move that will make it decide to correct to some
degree. I think that the energy sector has the ability
(again) to drag down the market. Just my 2 cents.
Hence, I am hesitant to do Energy trade ideas long. I know, just
trade what is in front of you and use subjective entries!
Posted by bluezango on 29th of Jul 2016 at 04:00 pm
Article Author claimed Short UVXY and TVIX
Read and article or two more about UVXY vs TVIX and
differences. The author disclosed that he and/or his firm was
Short UVXY and TVIX. Since these have built in capital
deterioration, short would be great, seems brilliant, but TD
Ameritrade does not allow it. If you wanted to, How?
Posted by bluezango on 21st of Jul 2016 at 02:36 pm
UVXY is Ultra, which is only 2x, but still... it should track
VIX better. On the other hand, after reading what they have
to actually do with all the options to translate it to 'tyr" to
track VIX , it is understandable. Also, just because the VIX
moves, does not mean the options activity on the VIX automatically
changes proportionally. I am starting to wonder if it is
people or systems doing it :)
Posted by bluezango on 18th of Jul 2016 at 11:04 am
wow! VXX Low. Just hit a 52week low 11.49 No, no
paper trade data or back testing. I am using a 1% stop for a 3-4-5%
target upside. No, to subjective (Steve), or trigger (Matt)
basis. My assumption for downside risk scenario: doji, doji,
doji, etc.. and S&P just goes up 6 points at day consistently.
(calm and slightly up indefintitely, while the VXX decomposes
slowly.
Interesting: The table below shows
VIXlevels with the expected
volatility in the S&P 500 on a monthly or daily basis. Keep in
mind that we are talking about volatility, not the expected return
or change.
Posted by bluezango on 15th of Jul 2016 at 04:50 pm
New lows today in VIX below 12.50 range to 12.36. I did
this: When VIX is 12.36-12.74, I scale in to VXX at 11.56-11.67,
then scale out of VXX 11.95-12.06, so I do not hold over weekend 2
days.
It is only 30 cents, but 3% is 3% a few times, I am happy.
It just "feels" and seems that of all other stocks, ETF, and
indexes, the VIX is different, in that it has a solid
"floor". Sure, it can maybe go down a bit below 12.36, but
seems like all upside. I am wrong here?
Posted by bluezango on 15th of Jul 2016 at 01:11 pm
Question: on getting links to StockCharts on less than Daily
timeframe. I may be missing a silly concept, but when ever I
use or save a URL link to a StockChart for less than Daily (120,
60, 30 minute), it always just shows me daily.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Boy, tough choppy unpredicable market!
Posted by bluezango on 10th of Aug 2016 at 02:29 pm
Seems designed to fool you and shake you out. All my (day early) short S&P (SH) and Long VIX (VXX) got stopped out yesterday when S&P breached 2186/2187 above resistance of previous highs of 2185.
I know, trade what is in front of you with subjective triggers.
Inverted movement - "VIX Futures Contracts Index" vs "VIX Index" itself
VIX Daily an 15 Minute
Posted by bluezango on 8th of Aug 2016 at 10:48 am
Normally, if VIX up, VXX, TVIX, UVXY go up. Not Today:
VIX +2.28%, VXX -1.43%, TVIX -2.92%, UVXY -2.89%
ZIV +.74%, XIV +1.68%, SVXY +2.19%
Yes, these instruments are not directly based on VIX. S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. The index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the return from a rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts.
General Market Comments and Opinions
Posted by bluezango on 4th of Aug 2016 at 11:03 am
Boy, this market cannot decide what to do. Unprecedented flatness and volatility. S&P just hitting the previous support 2,159-2,165 (old channel) and now major resistance.
My opinion is that Oil going from 50-52 range to 39-40 range is the event or move that will make it decide to correct to some degree. I think that the energy sector has the ability (again) to drag down the market. Just my 2 cents.
Hence, I am hesitant to do Energy trade ideas long. I know, just trade what is in front of you and use subjective entries!
APHB - Update, closed right at shelf resistance
Posted by bluezango on 4th of Aug 2016 at 12:31 am
Yes, high volume to support a breakout, but would prefer some consolidation first. Very tough to go long after a 54% moved today.
"....announced it had completed enrollment of its Phase 1 clinical trial..."
APHB Trade Idea
PRTS - thanks for the news
PRTS Comments
Posted by bluezango on 3rd of Aug 2016 at 01:02 pm
Thanks for the news, theory, and explanation. Thanks steve. I was a buyer also.
KODK (Eastman Kodak) - not available to short
Posted by bluezango on 3rd of Aug 2016 at 09:42 am
FYI - for some reason never available to short. It hit 16.5
I have been following this dog for ages, and often want to short, but shares never available. Must be a crowded trade or something?
PTX - update - we have a runner
Posted by bluezango on 2nd of Aug 2016 at 09:44 am
up 15% this morning. Trim and trail stops.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PTX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57460756062&a=462977130&listNum=59
Huge Move Up in Oil, XLE did not follow?
Huge Move Up in Oil, XLE did not follow?
Posted by bluezango on 1st of Aug 2016 at 03:59 pm
Yes. My Bad, was looking at CBOE Crude Volatility. Never mind.
Huge Move Up in Oil, XLE did not follow?
Posted by bluezango on 1st of Aug 2016 at 03:51 pm
Oil up 7.5% today, big move. Why would XLE at least not move in the same direction?
C (Citicorp) breaking below support
Posted by bluezango on 1st of Aug 2016 at 12:17 pm
C (Citicorp) breaking below support below 43.5, but XLF is fine/not.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=C&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29738849801&a=469746007&listNum=59
PRTS - Fundamental Play at 50 MA
Posted by bluezango on 1st of Aug 2016 at 09:44 am
This is one of Steve and Matt's Fundamental Plays, plus a Bull Wedge. It just dropped to 50 moving average for a potential buy at 3.98.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRTS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=13&id=p58278041081&a=461396991&listNum=59
Article Author claimed Short UVXY
Posted by bluezango on 29th of Jul 2016 at 04:00 pm
Article Author claimed Short UVXY and TVIX
Read and article or two more about UVXY vs TVIX and differences. The author disclosed that he and/or his firm was Short UVXY and TVIX. Since these have built in capital deterioration, short would be great, seems brilliant, but TD Ameritrade does not allow it. If you wanted to, How?
The art - PBYI (wow
Posted by bluezango on 29th of Jul 2016 at 03:13 pm
The art - PBYI (wow 45%), SRPT(10%), KITE(10%) all had too tight of stops to get all.
All were not fully taken advantage of due to my stops being to tight, where-in the art and skill really comes into play.
Sometimes, stop is a) low of the day, b) 1%, or c) 2% , with each seeking an approx 3:1 (target) gain to (max) loss. Good thinking?
Yes, thanks, nice advanced notice,
ADVM Daily View
Posted by bluezango on 28th of Jul 2016 at 02:08 pm
Yes, thanks, nice advanced notice, got 5.5% pop, then 1% stop loss for a tidy 4.5%.
UVXY is Ultra, which is
UVXY
Posted by bluezango on 21st of Jul 2016 at 02:36 pm
UVXY is Ultra, which is only 2x, but still... it should track VIX better. On the other hand, after reading what they have to actually do with all the options to translate it to 'tyr" to track VIX , it is understandable. Also, just because the VIX moves, does not mean the options activity on the VIX automatically changes proportionally. I am starting to wonder if it is people or systems doing it :)
Yep, stopped out on VXX.
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by bluezango on 18th of Jul 2016 at 02:23 pm
Yep, stopped out on VXX. Boy is it quiet and "non-volatile" :) VIX at 12.44% and VXX at 11.42
wow! VXX Low. Just hit
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by bluezango on 18th of Jul 2016 at 11:04 am
wow! VXX Low. Just hit a 52week low 11.49 No, no paper trade data or back testing. I am using a 1% stop for a 3-4-5% target upside. No, to subjective (Steve), or trigger (Matt) basis. My assumption for downside risk scenario: doji, doji, doji, etc.. and S&P just goes up 6 points at day consistently. (calm and slightly up indefintitely, while the VXX decomposes slowly.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:volatility_index
Interesting: The table below shows VIXlevels with the expected volatility in the S&P 500 on a monthly or daily basis. Keep in mind that we are talking about volatility, not the expected return or change.
Results on short term VIX Long Plays
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by bluezango on 15th of Jul 2016 at 04:50 pm
New lows today in VIX below 12.50 range to 12.36. I did this: When VIX is 12.36-12.74, I scale in to VXX at 11.56-11.67, then scale out of VXX 11.95-12.06, so I do not hold over weekend 2 days.
It is only 30 cents, but 3% is 3% a few times, I am happy.
It just "feels" and seems that of all other stocks, ETF, and indexes, the VIX is different, in that it has a solid "floor". Sure, it can maybe go down a bit below 12.36, but seems like all upside. I am wrong here?
Question: on getting links to
Posted by bluezango on 15th of Jul 2016 at 01:11 pm
Question: on getting links to StockCharts on less than Daily timeframe. I may be missing a silly concept, but when ever I use or save a URL link to a StockChart for less than Daily (120, 60, 30 minute), it always just shows me daily.
How to get intraday chart from links?
As expected, VIX hit 12.74
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by bluezango on 14th of Jul 2016 at 01:18 pm
As expected, VIX hit 12.74 and then took off. I bought VXX, up .82% already.