Posted by sbaxman111 on 23rd of Jun 2016 at 11:11 pm
At the last minute today before the close, I took a modest
$15,000 leveraged short RUT position because that's what my
technical signals said to do. Not enough intestinal fortitude to do
more.
Now I just saw some Brit professor say that the current
projection is for the "Leave" side to win and the RUT futures are
down something like 5% close to 11:10 pm. #$%^&
Another reminder of the psychological aspect of trading
where it can become difficult to execute your signal(s) even though
I have been doing this for a very long time. Tomorrow could also
provide some additional trading anxiety if the current UK results hold up. It is likely that the
market will swing to an extremely oversold short-term position
tomorrow after a big potential decline - possibly providing a
short-term Long signal.
Thanks - I'm just an old squirrel who found a tasty "nut"
so far today. But, I'm obviously having a better day than George
Soros is. LOL Then again, he recently claimed to be short the
market big time.
With Draghi pledging last week to potentially intervene in
the event of a Brexit vote, it's not surprising that we haven't
gone straight down from the open.
Hopefully last night all BPT'ers were on the sidelines,
short, or protecting their assets with some hedges thanks to what
they might have learned here. I've already heard at least a half a
dozen people on TV say that this is "a buying opportunity" for
stocks. That may be true for very short-term periods of time, but
to me, it sure doesn't seem like the time to be a "long term" buy
and hold investor.
Is this the catalyst for a much bigger "Armageddon" type
decline in our stock markets like what we saw during the financial
crisis? We certainly can't/don't know that yet, but based on
previous Spy Pro back tested data, it's an opportunity to make
money no matter what the ultimate direction might turn out to
be.
In looking at my historical data from the late summer of
2008, I found that the Rydex 200% long fund was at $22.11 on
8-14-08. On 12-1-08 it was at $5.78 before rallying to close at
$8.61 on 1-6-09. From there it fell to $3.82 on 3-5-06. During this
time frame, using the back tested Spy Pro trade dates on the
website, the 200% L/S RUT funds would have been up about 107% (half
of that for more normal trading with no leverage). This includes
going long on 2-23-09 which turned out to be somewhat premature at
$4.93 a share. That trade was a loser on 3-5-09, but lasted until
it closed out at $6.86 on on 5-15-09.
Overall in 2009, if you believe in Matt's Spy Pro data like
I do, you had a chance to make about 222% using those signals with
200% leverage - half of that with no leverage. Hard to imagine how
good the results might have been using options for those trades.
These 2008 back tested Spy Pro signals were IN the market for just
146 days. The rest of the time was spent in the safety of
Cash.
I don't know that Matt has the time to do it, but it would
be very interesting to know what the current collection of Spy Pro
models would have done during that same period of time back in
08-09.
During this same time frame in 08-09 - when it looked like
the world's financial system might collapse - there were numerous
one day long trades created by the same short-term indicators I
used to take my modest short trade last night. While there were
some unpleasant one day trades during that period of time, overall
they made a lot of money - at least on paper. Unfortunately I
hadn't put them together yet back then.
NUGT - The sharp spike up from NUGT at the open today
exceeded the previous May high of $123.96. With the 10,2 %B
indicator spiking to the 1.2 level on my 10 min chart, this was an
opportunity to take your quick profit if you owned NUGT, and think
about a short-term DUST reversal position just like the recent
similar patterns predicted at this 1.2 level.
If you plug in UVXY into this same 10 min chart you'll see
the same 10,2 pattern going to 1.2.
Thursday short trade signal
Posted by sbaxman111 on 23rd of Jun 2016 at 11:11 pm
At the last minute today before the close, I took a modest $15,000 leveraged short RUT position because that's what my technical signals said to do. Not enough intestinal fortitude to do more.
Now I just saw some Brit professor say that the current projection is for the "Leave" side to win and the RUT futures are down something like 5% close to 11:10 pm. #$%^&
Another reminder of the psychological aspect of trading where it can become difficult to execute your signal(s) even though I have been doing this for a very long time. Tomorrow could also provide some additional trading anxiety i f the current UK results hold up. It is likely that the market will swing to an extremely oversold short-term position tomorrow after a big potential decline - possibly providing a short-term Long signal.
Also took a small position
Posted by EdZ on 23rd of Jun 2016 at 11:25 pm
Also took a small position in TZA after hours. In hindsight UVXY would have been the better choice. This is worse than I could have ever imagined.
Yep. Made a lot of
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of Jun 2016 at 11:40 pm
Yep. Made a lot of good moves today, but kicking myself for not taking a shot on vix options as the /VX hits +40% here.
Nice trade Sbaxman!
Posted by mphailey on 23rd of Jun 2016 at 11:21 pm
Nice trade Sbaxman!
Title: click to show comments Thanks
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jun 2016 at 11:23 am
Thanks - I'm just an old squirrel who found a tasty "nut" so far today. But, I'm obviously having a better day than George Soros is. LOL Then again, he recently claimed to be short the market big time.
With Draghi pledging last week to potentially intervene in the event of a Brexit vote, it's not surprising that we haven't gone straight down from the open.
Hopefully last night all BPT'ers were on the sidelines, short, or protecting their assets with some hedges thanks to what they might have learned here. I've already heard at least a half a dozen people on TV say that this is "a buying opportunity" for stocks. That may be true for very short-term periods of time, but to me, it sure doesn't seem like the time to be a "long term" buy and hold investor.
Is this the catalyst for a much bigger "Armageddon" type decline in our stock markets like what we saw during the financial crisis? We certainly can't/don't know that yet, but based on previous Spy Pro back tested data, it's an opportunity to make money no matter what the ultimate direction might turn out to be.
In looking at my historical data from the late summer of 2008, I found that the Rydex 200% long fund was at $22.11 on 8-14-08. On 12-1-08 it was at $5.78 before rallying to close at $8.61 on 1-6-09. From there it fell to $3.82 on 3-5-06. During this time frame, using the back tested Spy Pro trade dates on the website, the 200% L/S RUT funds would have been up about 107% (half of that for more normal trading with no leverage). This includes going long on 2-23-09 which turned out to be somewhat premature at $4.93 a share. That trade was a loser on 3-5-09, but lasted until it closed out at $6.86 on on 5-15-09.
Overall in 2009, if you believe in Matt's Spy Pro data like I do, you had a chance to make about 222% using those signals with 200% leverage - half of that with no leverage. Hard to imagine how good the results might have been using options for those trades. These 2008 back tested Spy Pro signals were IN the market for just 146 days. The rest of the time was spent in the safety of Cash.
I don't know that Matt has the time to do it, but it would be very interesting to know what the current collection of Spy Pro models would have done during that same period of time back in 08-09.
During this same time frame in 08-09 - when it looked like the world's financial system might collapse - there were numerous one day long trades created by the same short-term indicators I used to take my modest short trade last night. While there were some unpleasant one day trades during that period of time, overall they made a lot of money - at least on paper. Unfortunately I hadn't put them together yet back then.
NUGT - The sharp spike up from NUGT at the open today exceeded the previous May high of $123.96. With the 10,2 %B indicator spiking to the 1.2 level on my 10 min chart, this was an opportunity to take your quick profit if you owned NUGT, and think about a short-term DUST reversal position just like the recent similar patterns predicted at this 1.2 level.
If you plug in UVXY into this same 10 min chart you'll see the same 10,2 pattern going to 1.2.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=11&id=p30621882145&a=460729288&listNum=1