Posted by treid4dou on 4th of Oct 2008 at 12:06 pm
I think the January lows for Transports have not yet been
breached.I have the Jan. lows at: $TRAN : 4032.....and
IYT: 66.95.......Am I wrong ???? (Lows ...NOT on
a closing basis).
Posted by maggi3322 on 4th of Oct 2008 at 11:37 pm
this from fridays elliott wave (I know, they're a little
vague)
Now what? Both the U.S. House and Senate have each passed
their respective versions of the big bailout bill and the president
signed it into law today. But what happens now when the stock
market decisively breaks down from current levels? A break lower
here is when some degree of panic will arise since “the bill” that
just passed is thought to somehow address the market’s problems. It
won’t, nor can it. One day of stock market decline on Monday of
this week wiped out over $1 trillion dollars of stock market
capitalization, greater than the $700 billion (+) total of our tax
money that is supposedly being allocated to “fix” the problem (with
an estimated $152
billionof “pork” included for congressional pet projects,
it’s a pig of a bill…ba da boom, please tip your waitress.). The
market, by virtue of its sheer size, is the master. And here’s the
kicker from a stock market technicians point of view: the same day
that the bailout bill passes, which will supposedly save the world,
the Dow Jones Transportation Average closes beneath its January
low, thereby reconfirming the major Dow Theory bear market signal
issued last November. EWT, EWFF and STU subscribers have been
bearish since the dual market highs last July-October, and we even
alerted you to the original Dow Theory Bear Market signal last
November. So even this venerable market signal is falling in line
with our forecast and all the Dow Theorists should now agree.
Thanks vmath for posting that. EWII and several
others also talk a lot about the TED Spread. I know that
they said it is the difference between the safer US T-bills and the
Libor and the implications are NOT good here right now and that
while credit spreads continue to widen the stock market should
remain under downward pressure, at times severe.
We may have had some talk of this on the blog and I missed it
but if you or someone here can explain the Ted Spreads implications
in some basic terms, I would also appreciate that. and even a chart
that I could save to Stockcharts.
Maybe Bloomberg is the only one with this chart as it does not
seem readily available. Fina
Posted by maggi3322 on 5th of Oct 2008 at 12:05 pm
according to Elliott Wave. Safe Money reports has been calling
for a major depression similar to the 1930's for the last five
years. HS Dent has been calling for a major rally before the
markets melt down, who the heck is right? Appears that HSDent might
be a little off ;)
Posted by marketguy on 5th of Oct 2008 at 08:56 pm
I "believe" HS Dent had the top in somewhere between 2008-2010
(or 2009-2010) in the "Great Boom Ahead" (written in the mid 90's I
think)...granted the Dow never reached 30-40k as he thought it
would but either way I'm guessing his depression scenario
is/has arrived...sad times my friends, sad times....I wouldn't be
"surpirsed" to see a late 2001 type rally (ie maybe we get back to
1300+...not sure how we do it but have to consider it a possibility
as this year is so correlated to 2001 with the 10/20
month moving avgs, bollinger bands, etc).
Posted by dowjones4k on 6th of Oct 2008 at 09:48 am
yes he did i have read many of his writings and he is predicting
a depression type event this time. it is happening a little
earlier than he predicited.
Posted by treid4dou on 4th of Oct 2008 at 07:41 pm
we will have to watch the Dow/Trannies ...making lower lows
BOTH.....for a DT confirmation..... so its all about the trannies
now......guess bears are going to pull the trannies
hard....down....
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I think the January lows
Buried in the 700 billion dollar bailout was this gem giving the solar industry major tax advantages
Posted by treid4dou on 4th of Oct 2008 at 12:06 pm
I think the January lows for Transports have not yet been breached.I have the Jan. lows at: $TRAN : 4032.....and IYT: 66.95.......Am I wrong ???? (Lows ...NOT on a closing basis).
this from fridays elliott wave
Posted by maggi3322 on 4th of Oct 2008 at 11:37 pm
this from fridays elliott wave (I know, they're a little vague)
Now what? Both the U.S. House and Senate have each passed their respective versions of the big bailout bill and the president signed it into law today. But what happens now when the stock market decisively breaks down from current levels? A break lower here is when some degree of panic will arise since “the bill” that just passed is thought to somehow address the market’s problems. It won’t, nor can it. One day of stock market decline on Monday of this week wiped out over $1 trillion dollars of stock market capitalization, greater than the $700 billion (+) total of our tax money that is supposedly being allocated to “fix” the problem (with an estimated $152 billionof “pork” included for congressional pet projects, it’s a pig of a bill…ba da boom, please tip your waitress.). The market, by virtue of its sheer size, is the master. And here’s the kicker from a stock market technicians point of view: the same day that the bailout bill passes, which will supposedly save the world, the Dow Jones Transportation Average closes beneath its January low, thereby reconfirming the major Dow Theory bear market signal issued last November. EWT, EWFF and STU subscribers have been bearish since the dual market highs last July-October, and we even alerted you to the original Dow Theory Bear Market signal last November. So even this venerable market signal is falling in line with our forecast and all the Dow Theorists should now agree.
Thanks Maggi for the chart.
Posted by finam on 5th of Oct 2008 at 01:03 pm
Thanks Maggi for the chart. THAT was the one I was referring to.
you're very welcome, hope it
Posted by maggi3322 on 5th of Oct 2008 at 01:36 pm
you're very welcome, hope it helps
maggi Thanks for the post.
Posted by vmath on 5th of Oct 2008 at 11:17 am
maggi Thanks for the post. Richard Russell TAKE NOTE!!! LOL
Thanks vmath for posting that.
Posted by finam on 5th of Oct 2008 at 11:50 am
Thanks vmath for posting that. EWII and several others also talk a lot about the TED Spread. I know that they said it is the difference between the safer US T-bills and the Libor and the implications are NOT good here right now and that while credit spreads continue to widen the stock market should remain under downward pressure, at times severe.
We may have had some talk of this on the blog and I missed it but if you or someone here can explain the Ted Spreads implications in some basic terms, I would also appreciate that. and even a chart that I could save to Stockcharts.
Maybe Bloomberg is the only one with this chart as it does not seem readily available. Fina
finam glad you liked the
Posted by vmath on 5th of Oct 2008 at 12:00 pm
finam glad you liked the post... but credit goes to maggi
tks maggi.....so the important fact
Posted by treid4dou on 5th of Oct 2008 at 02:34 am
tks maggi.....so the important fact is the close. DT bear mkt. confirmed then.
according to Elliott Wave. Safe
Posted by maggi3322 on 5th of Oct 2008 at 12:05 pm
according to Elliott Wave. Safe Money reports has been calling for a major depression similar to the 1930's for the last five years. HS Dent has been calling for a major rally before the markets melt down, who the heck is right? Appears that HSDent might be a little off ;)
is that HS Dent's current
Posted by dowjones4k on 5th of Oct 2008 at 06:17 pm
is that HS Dent's current thinking or out of his books? if books which one?
I "believe" HS Dent had
Posted by marketguy on 5th of Oct 2008 at 08:56 pm
I "believe" HS Dent had the top in somewhere between 2008-2010 (or 2009-2010) in the "Great Boom Ahead" (written in the mid 90's I think)...granted the Dow never reached 30-40k as he thought it would but either way I'm guessing his depression scenario is/has arrived...sad times my friends, sad times....I wouldn't be "surpirsed" to see a late 2001 type rally (ie maybe we get back to 1300+...not sure how we do it but have to consider it a possibility as this year is so correlated to 2001 with the 10/20 month moving avgs, bollinger bands, etc).
yes he did i have
Posted by dowjones4k on 6th of Oct 2008 at 09:48 am
yes he did i have read many of his writings and he is predicting a depression type event this time. it is happening a little earlier than he predicited.
marketguy, could you post charts
Posted by maggi3322 on 5th of Oct 2008 at 09:13 pm
marketguy, could you post charts showing the correlation? tia
let's see if I have
Posted by marketguy on 5th of Oct 2008 at 10:23 pm
let's see if I have the chart thing down...sorry forgot to add the bollinger band but it has pentrated the lower band as it did at the time indicated in 2001 as well .
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p46377495172&a=152653276&listNum=5
looking at that S&P chart
Posted by paige386 on 6th of Oct 2008 at 09:11 am
looking at that S&P chart the vol is much larger now than in 2001.
Yes, January low was 4032
Posted by finam on 4th of Oct 2008 at 07:10 pm
Yes, January low was 4032 and we closed yesterday at 4134. We are close though. Not sure what charts EWII used.
we will have to watch
Posted by treid4dou on 4th of Oct 2008 at 07:41 pm
we will have to watch the Dow/Trannies ...making lower lows BOTH.....for a DT confirmation..... so its all about the trannies now......guess bears are going to pull the trannies hard....down....