Posted by freakydude on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:24 pm
I'm almost 100% out of stocks now. Got 95% out about three-four
weeks ago. It was looking too scary for me (and/or unpredictable).
But still following fairly closely (and happy I went to cash).
Anyway, this must have come up, but have people here discussed
that the S&P just had a death cross exactly three days ago? It
looks pretty solid by now. When the DOW did the same 15 or 16 days
ago (see chart), it was curtains for that index, wasn't it?
Posted by freakydude on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:37 pm
Very true, Steve, and it sometimes reverses, but nevertheless it
can "predict" a lot, it seems. Lots of money to made if you
followed it with GDX (a fall which you guys called way before
that), EEM, FXI, etc. Other times, like with USO, it would go back
and forth for a while. AAPL just had one, but it's hard to bet
against everyone's favorite.
freakydude- if I
run a strategy using those MA's, the statistics are pretty bad,
like. By adding a simple whipsaw condition, it improves MA
cross strategies by about 30 -50% across the board. For
example on a simple 50/200 MA cross, by adding a whipsaw
confirmation increased the statistics from 43% winning trades to
70% winning trades, quite an improvement
If you don't know what I mean by whipsaw factor, see my past
examples on it, click the URL below and see the bottom discussion
with statistics and detailed examples
the confirmation will get you in or out later, but filters out
about 1/2 the whipsaws
regardless I do not trade with MA crosses, way too laggy, just
saying a whipsaw confirmation improves every MA cross system, I've
tested them extensively, you guys have not
Yes, it's a guide to monitor for sure. This has been a
traders market for most of the year while the squeeze was going on
with those MA's and then recently broke down after losing
support.
a third way would be inside a triangle until it decides which
way to break. If the monthly macd weren't crossed down
though, I might be more optimistic. Here's an interesting
monthly chart. If you change it to quarterly, its still
crossed up though.
SPX Death Cross
Posted by freakydude on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:24 pm
I'm almost 100% out of stocks now. Got 95% out about three-four weeks ago. It was looking too scary for me (and/or unpredictable). But still following fairly closely (and happy I went to cash).
Anyway, this must have come up, but have people here discussed that the S&P just had a death cross exactly three days ago? It looks pretty solid by now. When the DOW did the same 15 or 16 days ago (see chart), it was curtains for that index, wasn't it?
with MA crosses like that
Posted by matt on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:34 pm
with MA crosses like that always best to get a 'confirmed' cross from my whipsaw method, and as Steve said, very lagging indicators
There was a death cross
Posted by steve on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:28 pm
There was a death cross in 2011 as well...lagging indicator but something to monitor.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda
Posted by freakydude on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:37 pm
Very true, Steve, and it sometimes reverses, but nevertheless it can "predict" a lot, it seems. Lots of money to made if you followed it with GDX (a fall which you guys called way before that), EEM, FXI, etc. Other times, like with USO, it would go back and forth for a while. AAPL just had one, but it's hard to bet against everyone's favorite.
freakydude- if I run a strategy
Posted by matt on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:58 pm
freakydude- if I run a strategy using those MA's, the statistics are pretty bad, like. By adding a simple whipsaw condition, it improves MA cross strategies by about 30 -50% across the board. For example on a simple 50/200 MA cross, by adding a whipsaw confirmation increased the statistics from 43% winning trades to 70% winning trades, quite an improvement
If you don't know what I mean by whipsaw factor, see my past examples on it, click the URL below and see the bottom discussion with statistics and detailed examples
http://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/222952/#222959
the confirmation will get you in or out later, but filters out about 1/2 the whipsaws
regardless I do not trade with MA crosses, way too laggy, just saying a whipsaw confirmation improves every MA cross system, I've tested them extensively, you guys have not
Yes, it's a guide to
Posted by steve on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:38 pm
Yes, it's a guide to monitor for sure. This has been a traders market for most of the year while the squeeze was going on with those MA's and then recently broke down after losing support.
crazy chart
Posted by roger on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:38 pm
SPX daily
roger here's the other way
Posted by matt on 2nd of Sep 2015 at 07:12 pm
roger here's the other way to look at it, I view this as a favored scenario for now
a third way would be
Posted by roger on 2nd of Sep 2015 at 09:11 pm
a third way would be inside a triangle until it decides which way to break. If the monthly macd weren't crossed down though, I might be more optimistic. Here's an interesting monthly chart. If you change it to quarterly, its still crossed up though.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=M&yr=8&mn=4&dy=0&id=p10680174704&a=422931098
I'm focusing on the 15 min chart for now.
sorry for the ugly url
would make one helluva inverse
Posted by roger on 1st of Sep 2015 at 02:59 pm
would make one helluva inverse head and shoulders though