"Wednesday marked the first time in more than 100 days the SPX
closed below its 200-day moving average. Since 1929, short-term
forward returns were a bit weak, but a month later SPX was higher
80% of the time." - Jason
Goepfert
I agree. And the results would be more Accurate. But
given this is the 3rd longest bull run, it only leaves 2 longer
bull runs to use for comparison. There was the 7yr bull ’49
to ’56 and 13yr bull ’87 to 2000. It seems that
comparing 200dma crossing at 6yr marker of current bull run to 6yr
markers of only 2 other bull runs would be too small of a sample
pool for results to be accurate. Its certainly possible my
thinking on this is wrong…..especially on a late friday. Have
a good weekend.
"Wednesday marked the first time
Posted by mark109 on 10th of Jul 2015 at 03:40 pm
"Wednesday marked the first time in more than 100 days the SPX closed below its 200-day moving average. Since 1929, short-term forward returns were a bit weak, but a month later SPX was higher 80% of the time." - Jason Goepfert
I think the question should
Posted by wowten on 10th of Jul 2015 at 03:47 pm
I think the question should be, how many times is it higher after crossing its 200 day MA, when it's at the top of a 6 year bull run.
Statistically I would guess the answer is very different.
I agree. And the results
Posted by mark109 on 10th of Jul 2015 at 07:12 pm
I agree. And the results would be more Accurate. But given this is the 3rd longest bull run, it only leaves 2 longer bull runs to use for comparison. There was the 7yr bull ’49 to ’56 and 13yr bull ’87 to 2000. It seems that comparing 200dma crossing at 6yr marker of current bull run to 6yr markers of only 2 other bull runs would be too small of a sample pool for results to be accurate. Its certainly possible my thinking on this is wrong…..especially on a late friday. Have a good weekend.
Uh --why does a bull
Posted by hamvestor on 10th of Jul 2015 at 11:39 pm
Uh --why does a bull run have to be longerto be useful for comparison?