Posted by sbaxman111 on 1st of May 2015 at 03:27 pm
At the moment the "Go Long on the last day of the month if
it's negative strategy", has proven to be accurate once again. The
SPX, NDX, and XIV have all crossed back up and over their 9 day ema
lines. So is this now a new SELL signal if it holds up at the close
today? For a Connors strategy the answer would likely be yes
as he likes the 9 day ema line as a sell signal. For his 10-6 RSI-2
strategy he uses the 5 ema crossover as a sell signal which has
been met by the NDX and SPX so far.
Another thing I have noticed in studying RSI-2 data is that
one day moves from below 10% to closes above 60% in one or more of
the SPX, NDX, or RUT is often followed a reversal the very next
day. This is also true when there is a close above 90% followed by
a close below 40% the next day. On April 24th both the SPX and NDX
closed with RSI-2 values above 90%. The next day the RUT closed at
11.01% and the SPX at 37.50%. The statistical odds on 4-25 favored
a short-term reversal the next day - which did occur.
Back on March 11th the SPX and NDX closed below 10%. The
next day the RUT was at 83.67% and the SPX was at 67.60%. This move
up was followed the next day by a modest reversal. On Feb 26th the
RUT closed at 99.89%. The next day the SPX closed at 12.51%. Once
again the next day reversed. On Jan 28th both the SPX and NDX
closed in the 8% area. The next day the RUT closed above 60% which
was again followed by a reversal the next day.
Since the major indexes correlate so well to each other
most of the time, these values don't necessarily have to occur in
the same index.
Does this hold true every time?...of course not. But it
does provide some statistical insight as to the odds of such a
short-term trade being favorable. In many circumstances these are
just 1 day reversal, so if they don't work out, I just go back to
the underlying trend.
To help confirm my decision I like to look at the 60 min
charts to see if the RUT, SPX, and or the NDX are at extreme
short-term technical levels at the end of the day. If so, the odds
are increased that a short-term reversal will take place. The
current 60 min SPX chart (3:20 pm) has both the RSI-2 and RSI-4
indicators at very high values - more than 98% for the RSI-2 at the
moment. The SPX earlier in the day ran up into the Pivot and 50 day
line on the 60 min chart and found resistance.
Is today a potential short-term sell day?
Posted by sbaxman111 on 1st of May 2015 at 03:27 pm
At the moment the "Go Long on the last day of the month if it's negative strategy", has proven to be accurate once again. The SPX, NDX, and XIV have all crossed back up and over their 9 day ema lines. So is this now a new SELL signal if it holds up at the close today? For a Connors strategy the answer would likely be yes as he likes the 9 day ema line as a sell signal. For his 10-6 RSI-2 strategy he uses the 5 ema crossover as a sell signal which has been met by the NDX and SPX so far.
Another thing I have noticed in studying RSI-2 data is that one day moves from below 10% to closes above 60% in one or more of the SPX, NDX, or RUT is often followed a reversal the very next day. This is also true when there is a close above 90% followed by a close below 40% the next day. On April 24th both the SPX and NDX closed with RSI-2 values above 90%. The next day the RUT closed at 11.01% and the SPX at 37.50%. The statistical odds on 4-25 favored a short-term reversal the next day - which did occur.
Back on March 11th the SPX and NDX closed below 10%. The next day the RUT was at 83.67% and the SPX was at 67.60%. This move up was followed the next day by a modest reversal. On Feb 26th the RUT closed at 99.89%. The next day the SPX closed at 12.51%. Once again the next day reversed. On Jan 28th both the SPX and NDX closed in the 8% area. The next day the RUT closed above 60% which was again followed by a reversal the next day.
Since the major indexes correlate so well to each other most of the time, these values don't necessarily have to occur in the same index.
Does this hold true every time?...of course not. But it does provide some statistical insight as to the odds of such a short-term trade being favorable. In many circumstances these are just 1 day reversal, so if they don't work out, I just go back to the underlying trend.
To help confirm my decision I like to look at the 60 min charts to see if the RUT, SPX, and or the NDX are at extreme short-term technical levels at the end of the day. If so, the odds are increased that a short-term reversal will take place. The current 60 min SPX chart (3:20 pm) has both the RSI-2 and RSI-4 indicators at very high values - more than 98% for the RSI-2 at the moment. The SPX earlier in the day ran up into the Pivot and 50 day line on the 60 min chart and found resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RVX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70366930241&a=319818456&listNum=1
Also, volume seems to confirm your opinion
Posted by sschulman on 1st of May 2015 at 04:20 pm
I agree with you. Today's move up just about equals yesterday's move down. But today's volume is HALF of yesterday's volume.