Hey, go all in at highs if you think human nature is different
this time. I only post the chart as a general observation that
investors get overlevered at highs and the levels are certainly
there, especially given the steadily decreasing volume of this
bull. Again, should anyone use it for timing? No. But it should
give caution on swing longs.
Posted by sonofrebel on 24th of Apr 2015 at 04:24 pm
I was not saying it is different and so to go all in -
I am saying it is different in ratio of presumed debt growth
to index growth, most likely because of the explosion of
the Central Bank balance sheets in this cycle - I draw no
conclusion other than this analysis is incomplete and a proper
analysis of the growth rates would have told the author that.
Not sure I understand your objections - there's no analysis in
the chart (raw #s in the chart I posted - no deflator) - it's just
data drawn from nyxdata website juxtaposed against the index. As to
linear vs % vs constant dollar, etc., they slice it all ways and
the basic point of margin peaks correlating to (no one's making a
causal argument) index peaks holds. Your point about market
corrections leading to reductions in margin exactly fits my point:
high prices attract buyers; higher prices get them levered up;
lower prices get them liquidated. Interest rate fixing certainly
exacerbates the problem and sets up the conditions for a bigger
fallout this time.
Hey, go all in at
All time high margin debt
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of Apr 2015 at 04:02 pm
Hey, go all in at highs if you think human nature is different this time. I only post the chart as a general observation that investors get overlevered at highs and the levels are certainly there, especially given the steadily decreasing volume of this bull. Again, should anyone use it for timing? No. But it should give caution on swing longs.
current trend is up
Posted by torvix on 25th of Apr 2015 at 03:19 am
I was not saying it
Posted by sonofrebel on 24th of Apr 2015 at 04:24 pm
I was not saying it is different and so to go all in - I am saying it is different in ratio of presumed debt growth to index growth, most likely because of the explosion of the Central Bank balance sheets in this cycle - I draw no conclusion other than this analysis is incomplete and a proper analysis of the growth rates would have told the author that.
Not sure I understand your
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of Apr 2015 at 07:18 pm
Not sure I understand your objections - there's no analysis in the chart (raw #s in the chart I posted - no deflator) - it's just data drawn from nyxdata website juxtaposed against the index. As to linear vs % vs constant dollar, etc., they slice it all ways and the basic point of margin peaks correlating to (no one's making a causal argument) index peaks holds. Your point about market corrections leading to reductions in margin exactly fits my point: high prices attract buyers; higher prices get them levered up; lower prices get them liquidated. Interest rate fixing certainly exacerbates the problem and sets up the conditions for a bigger fallout this time.
Here's another view in inflation adjusted %'s.
Mission accomplished!
Posted by windyjazz on 24th of Apr 2015 at 04:08 pm
todays only mission...get$SPX at an
all time closing high...I think they did
it....that will print very well in the
Sunday papers.