Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 02:47 pm
I thought that statement by Yellen was skillfully crafted, and
was meant to send a clear message by its nuance. I know it's cool
to bash the Fed chair, but I think she's doing a reasonable job
navigating some treacherous waters. jmho.
If you believe that central planning can bend economic gravity
and that this won't end very badly, then, bravo. Otherwise, it's
more absurd than rearranging deck chairs on a proverbial Titanic.
Let it pass, keep trading good signals and avoid central-planning
complacency at all costs.
The only thing the FED can do is to keep the party going.
Interest rates cannot rise. Cannot be done! The Chair gets nothing
but positive feedback from doing so. She will be worshiped like a
goddess the higher she sends the markets. Greenspan also loved
being worshiped. It made the infamous free market advocate into a
central planner. All of these geeky little academics secretly love
to be in the limelight. There is no way out. BTFD!
Central planning was anathema to the American spirit until it
failed so miserably for the Russians. Now it's accepted as if it's
second nature. Surreal.
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:36 pm
The Soviet central planning system was a wholly different animal
than what you have in the U.S. Me thinks maybe less jargon and more
actual analysis might be warranted here.
Order of magnitude which we increasingly seem to be open to
accepting. The point is that central planning, as an attempt to
smooth natural cycles in business, economics, markets & life
ends up not only distorting price and other mechanisms in the short
run but creating outsized reversions in the long run. Plenty of
analysis behind this insight.
My feeling is central planning is not so much an attempt to
smooth natural cycles as it is an attempt to give an insolvent
system the appearance of solvency. It is desperation. That is why
it is hard to accept and merely BTFD.
I think that's what it ends up being, but they really do believe
they can bend gravity. And if you have a good signal to BTFD,
that's trading the market you're stuck with well.
BTW, I think the issue at the moment is not about propping up
the markets, but talking the dollar down. I am sure that there
is more than a little pressure to get the US back into the
race to the bottom. I will look at shorting pullbacks DX. I think
we have a signal and trigger for the weekly chart on DX. Got a nice
dip long trade on DX this afternoon, btw.
Thank you, hamvestor. On the conviction that the Fed has a
built-in dovishness at this point that will last and probably
increase, I stayed long XLU, EDV, OC, MDSO, VNQ, TLT & a few
other macro positions going into the announcement. Not a bad
day.
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 04:02 pm
Continued dovishness, as you say, is likely to continue. Stanley
Fischer seems to particularly influential with Yellen, and his
views are similar to hers. I remember a Forbes piece a year or two
ago lamenting the fact that he would be prone toward policies which
are prone to result in asset bubbles.
Thanks for the recommendations. I'm still trying to figure out
when to get into EOG and some other high-quality energy plays in
anticipation of a bottom in oil prices. I know it's impossible to
pick the bottom, but I don't want to get in too far ahead of that
point.
Yellen: "Removing Patience doesn't Mean Impatience"
Posted by puma on 18th of Mar 2015 at 02:30 pm
You can't make this stuff up
I thought that statement by
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 02:47 pm
I thought that statement by Yellen was skillfully crafted, and was meant to send a clear message by its nuance. I know it's cool to bash the Fed chair, but I think she's doing a reasonable job navigating some treacherous waters. jmho.
If you believe that central
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 02:51 pm
If you believe that central planning can bend economic gravity and that this won't end very badly, then, bravo. Otherwise, it's more absurd than rearranging deck chairs on a proverbial Titanic. Let it pass, keep trading good signals and avoid central-planning complacency at all costs.
The only thing the FED
Posted by zenman on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:10 pm
The only thing the FED can do is to keep the party going. Interest rates cannot rise. Cannot be done! The Chair gets nothing but positive feedback from doing so. She will be worshiped like a goddess the higher she sends the markets. Greenspan also loved being worshiped. It made the infamous free market advocate into a central planner. All of these geeky little academics secretly love to be in the limelight. There is no way out. BTFD!
Two relevant phrases for the
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:16 pm
Two relevant phrases for the day:
1) "Unelected, Unaccountable, Un-American"
2) "Trade the market you have, not the one you want."
"1) "Unelected, Unaccountable, Un-American". Thanks for
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:27 pm
"1) "Unelected, Unaccountable, Un-American".
Thanks for that amplification. Now I know how to give your comments the weight they deserve.
Central planning was anathema to
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:34 pm
Central planning was anathema to the American spirit until it failed so miserably for the Russians. Now it's accepted as if it's second nature. Surreal.
The Soviet central planning system
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:36 pm
The Soviet central planning system was a wholly different animal than what you have in the U.S. Me thinks maybe less jargon and more actual analysis might be warranted here.
Order of magnitude which we
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:41 pm
Order of magnitude which we increasingly seem to be open to accepting. The point is that central planning, as an attempt to smooth natural cycles in business, economics, markets & life ends up not only distorting price and other mechanisms in the short run but creating outsized reversions in the long run. Plenty of analysis behind this insight.
My feeling is central planning
Posted by zenman on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:50 pm
My feeling is central planning is not so much an attempt to smooth natural cycles as it is an attempt to give an insolvent system the appearance of solvency. It is desperation. That is why it is hard to accept and merely BTFD.
I think that's what it
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:53 pm
I think that's what it ends up being, but they really do believe they can bend gravity. And if you have a good signal to BTFD, that's trading the market you're stuck with well.
BTW, I think the issue
Posted by zenman on 18th of Mar 2015 at 04:40 pm
BTW, I think the issue at the moment is not about propping up the markets, but talking the dollar down. I am sure that there is more than a little pressure to get the US back into the race to the bottom. I will look at shorting pullbacks DX. I think we have a signal and trigger for the weekly chart on DX. Got a nice dip long trade on DX this afternoon, btw.
Dollar, Rates, Markets, maybe in
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 04:46 pm
Dollar, Rates, Markets, maybe in order of importance. Your turn, Uncles Abe & Mario.
OK, I can live with
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:45 pm
OK, I can live with that. Nicely put.
Thank you, hamvestor. On the
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2015 at 03:49 pm
Thank you, hamvestor. On the conviction that the Fed has a built-in dovishness at this point that will last and probably increase, I stayed long XLU, EDV, OC, MDSO, VNQ, TLT & a few other macro positions going into the announcement. Not a bad day.
Continued dovishness, as you say,
Posted by hamvestor on 18th of Mar 2015 at 04:02 pm
Continued dovishness, as you say, is likely to continue. Stanley Fischer seems to particularly influential with Yellen, and his views are similar to hers. I remember a Forbes piece a year or two ago lamenting the fact that he would be prone toward policies which are prone to result in asset bubbles.
Thanks for the recommendations. I'm still trying to figure out when to get into EOG and some other high-quality energy plays in anticipation of a bottom in oil prices. I know it's impossible to pick the bottom, but I don't want to get in too far ahead of that point.
Well said and good advice.
Posted by puma on 18th of Mar 2015 at 02:55 pm
Well said and good advice.