12 pm first short counter trend nq

https://youtu.be/stdi-1tIUhM  "the big one"

You are quite welcome. I should also note, as I trade oil mostly, that there are many shenanigans going on in the media. There is a lot at stake and trading oil by the news is probably a big mistake. I am in contact with physical oil traders who trade, among other products, Libyan oil. Much of their Libyan oil was cut off by the State Department a few weeks ago, so as not to fund rebels. Yesterday, the media almost made it sound that fighting there had hampered the oil supply and we saw a huge spike. If you had purely played this technically, being aware of this BS in the media, it was a wonderful short at the appropriate technical level.

Interestingly, my company is working with Iran now. The officials at the NIOC are very confident that they can compete with Saudi prices, which are at a discount to Brent prices, especially to the Chinese. There is still significant oil in storage and on ships. Although oil sales are up, production is not yet. There are many oil field problems that require technology, service, and tools to get oil flowing again. The problems are not difficult. It is a matter of having to skirt the US banking system to provide these products and services. Once that technical service and support, and infrastructure sourcing etc. is in place, there is an amazing amount of oil to bring on production.

http://screencast.com/t/0Kt19QlJ

CL, oil futures short on 60 min chart. Two minute chart caught it very well. 60 min gave the general area to short.

Traders shouldn't think about this kind of crap. Or, imagine... The charts are working great. Great low at bottom of b-band on positive divergence, price has moved right back to resistance. Trend line broke, but daily symmetry hasn't yet. For intra-day traders, cl charts on a 2 min or 15 min are working like a charm for futures. Please don't start worrying about Central Wankers...

Definitely go by the charts. OPEC, however, is DEAD, DEFUNCT. Iran want to move up to 2.5 mil bbls per day from 1.1. Will not accept a Cap until back at full production.

A freeze on production at unprecedented high levels. They crack me up.

Right, you are, AI. There have been so many wonderful shorting opportunities in oil because of rumors. All the best opportunities and set up continue to be on the short side. Try to push back thoughts of where to buy oil, and at least on intraday charts, enjoy the short side. Oh, and btw, OPEC is DOA.

Thank you. That is very helpful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tB2CM2ngpQg  He will SAY, "Whatever it takes." Blah blah... Nice RVM trade, thanks to Mario.

Crude +4.8 Mbarrels vs. -1.4M consensus, -3.6M last week.

Took 50% of 5 min candle on nq to enter instead. 38% Fib, as well.

looks to have triggered. On new 15 min bar

This was very instructional and helpful. It is interesting that it often matches with a kiss of the RSI 14 midband (50), and a departure from the 9 or 20 EMA. The alignment of the EMA's seem to coincide with the direction of the trade. Nice.

yes, but perhaps it would be better to wait for negative divergence when taking a counter trend trade.

Thanks payday. I exited before 10:30 because of inventory, but a sell order could have been entered just below that red doji at 10:30. Tough though, and not worth the risk. Price went down to value area low and the 50 MA, which would have been a logical place to go long on a bounce back up and through. Short at the moment thanks to a little bird that tweeted me while I was at a soccer game.

http://screencast.com/t/pX8k6ykLbGP

Crude Oil LONG trade from this morning for educational purposes...

http://screencast.com/t/6MLIdvgKGV

I mentioned it earlier, so I thought I should post it. Yes, I traded it.

We had a nice long entry this morning on the oil futures at around 7 am. Maybe that is the only thing you should worry about. We are at the 100 MA for 240 min chart now. Bit of trend line here.

I'm going to rest on laurels today and take off early. CL long today was great. Flat for the weekend. :)