The MA's flattened and then realigned bullish following a strong
move upward. Take note of the 3 white soldiers (candles) that
normally portend a stronger trend unfolding.
The HUI reached another symmetry target (dashed brown) is now
approaching its 200 day MA overhead for the first time in months
and I also show a possible range expansion target. Continue
to trail stops upward.
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jan 2015 at 02:32 pm
Regarding Three White Soldiers, here are some stats on what to
expect (from Bulkowsky):
The
three white soldiers candlestick pattern acts as a bullish reversal
82% of the time. What that means is it is more likely to breakout
upward (a close above the top of the highest candle) than it is to
breakout downward (a close below the lowest of the three candles).
Just 593 out of 3,333 samples showed downward breakouts.
The
candle ranks 67 for rarity, where a rank of 103 is unknown and 1 is
a rock star. The overall performance is 32 and that means price
does not trend all that well after the breakout. Nevertheless,
after a downward breakout in a bear market, price can drop 7.66% on
average, over 10 days, but that uses just 56 samples.
I consider a move [i.e.
pullback] of 6% to be a gift.The best 10-day performance
rank for the three white soldiers candle belongs to downward
breakouts in a bull market. I found 537 examples of those, so the
sample count is a bit thin.
Posted by muslhead on 18th of Jan 2015 at 07:45 pm
I respectfully disagree here.
Technically 3 white soldiers are a reversal pattern and come at
the end of a downtrend. Clearly when these occurred we were
already in an uptrend so these, by some interpretations are not 3
white soldiers. As such all the Bullkowski stats are
irrelevant.
The one thing i do agree with is that they do provide a message
of strength and continued move higher.
muslhead..I think you're being too narrow with your definition.
Three white soldiers can occur after a reversal pattern has
taken hold and simply portend a strong advance like you state in
the last sentence. Guys...don't get bogged down in textbook
analysis and instead allow for some flexibility. The only
point I was making was that it portended more strength nothing more
that that. What's more important is the action of the MA's
and how they were coiling which set the stage for a strong
move.
Posted by muslhead on 18th of Jan 2015 at 10:08 pm
Steve
My real point is this, if one is making the argument for
something being bullish or bearish and the basis for which they
make the argument is wrong, what good is the argument. You may
interpret how you wish but putting money to work based on an
incorrect analysis is no better than having a bias and trading
it.
Posted by muslhead on 18th of Jan 2015 at 10:12 pm
On final comment.
Steve i see both you and Matt candlestick pattern interpretation
much different and what would be considered incorrect based upon
how i was trained. Because you take the time to "train" us, i
thought i would take the time to "train" you. Feel free to
continue your understanding or maybe expand your horizon a bit and
learn.
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jan 2015 at 09:12 pm
Yeah, I'm not religiously attached to the stats. Just thought it
was interesting and wanted to share it. The takeaway for me is that
any pullback is to be bought!
HUI Daily
Posted by steve on 18th of Jan 2015 at 11:16 am
$HUI - Chart Link
The MA's flattened and then realigned bullish following a strong move upward. Take note of the 3 white soldiers (candles) that normally portend a stronger trend unfolding.
The HUI reached another symmetry target (dashed brown) is now approaching its 200 day MA overhead for the first time in months and I also show a possible range expansion target. Continue to trail stops upward.
Regarding Three White Soldiers, here
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jan 2015 at 02:32 pm
Regarding Three White Soldiers, here are some stats on what to expect (from Bulkowsky):
The three white soldiers candlestick pattern acts as a bullish reversal 82% of the time. What that means is it is more likely to breakout upward (a close above the top of the highest candle) than it is to breakout downward (a close below the lowest of the three candles). Just 593 out of 3,333 samples showed downward breakouts.
The candle ranks 67 for rarity, where a rank of 103 is unknown and 1 is a rock star. The overall performance is 32 and that means price does not trend all that well after the breakout. Nevertheless, after a downward breakout in a bear market, price can drop 7.66% on average, over 10 days, but that uses just 56 samples. I consider a move [i.e. pullback] of 6% to be a gift.The best 10-day performance rank for the three white soldiers candle belongs to downward breakouts in a bull market. I found 537 examples of those, so the sample count is a bit thin.
I respectfully disagree here. Technically 3
Posted by muslhead on 18th of Jan 2015 at 07:45 pm
I respectfully disagree here.
Technically 3 white soldiers are a reversal pattern and come at the end of a downtrend. Clearly when these occurred we were already in an uptrend so these, by some interpretations are not 3 white soldiers. As such all the Bullkowski stats are irrelevant.
The one thing i do agree with is that they do provide a message of strength and continued move higher.
muslhead..I think you're being too
Posted by steve on 18th of Jan 2015 at 08:44 pm
muslhead..I think you're being too narrow with your definition. Three white soldiers can occur after a reversal pattern has taken hold and simply portend a strong advance like you state in the last sentence. Guys...don't get bogged down in textbook analysis and instead allow for some flexibility. The only point I was making was that it portended more strength nothing more that that. What's more important is the action of the MA's and how they were coiling which set the stage for a strong move.
GDXJ 3WS was identified by certain writer herein on 1/8/15
Posted by hatefalseweight on 18th of Jan 2015 at 11:23 pm
This was posted here on 1/8/15:
"Ultrabullish 3 white soldierspatterns on this deep fakedown and breakup so buy dip aggressively. "
We got a sharp $1.70 drop in the GDXJ the next two days, then a $3.70 peak to trough follow-on to new highs. Ruling on the posting is confirmed.
Steve My real point is this,
Posted by muslhead on 18th of Jan 2015 at 10:08 pm
Steve
My real point is this, if one is making the argument for something being bullish or bearish and the basis for which they make the argument is wrong, what good is the argument. You may interpret how you wish but putting money to work based on an incorrect analysis is no better than having a bias and trading it.
On final comment. Steve i see
Posted by muslhead on 18th of Jan 2015 at 10:12 pm
On final comment.
Steve i see both you and Matt candlestick pattern interpretation much different and what would be considered incorrect based upon how i was trained. Because you take the time to "train" us, i thought i would take the time to "train" you. Feel free to continue your understanding or maybe expand your horizon a bit and learn.
Yeah, I'm not religiously attached
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jan 2015 at 09:12 pm
Yeah, I'm not religiously attached to the stats. Just thought it was interesting and wanted to share it. The takeaway for me is that any pullback is to be bought!
There must be something wrong
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jan 2015 at 09:15 pm
There must be something wrong with me - hanging out on a trading forum on a Sunday night when there's no trading on Monday!
thanks all 3 of you
Posted by morgan8 on 18th of Jan 2015 at 08:54 pm
thanks all 3 of you , intelligent, relevant, discussion