Posted by racerick on 31st of Dec 2014 at 07:22 am
Brent making new lows here this am trading around 56. WTI
trading around 53. Something has to give. Normal spread about $5
and has been holding $4.50 pretty consistently past week. Spread
now right at $3. If you have access can go long Brent and short WTI
for a return to normal spread. Last time I posted this was worth an
easy win within a couple of days.
Posted by racerick on 31st of Dec 2014 at 09:26 am
Obviously down a lot and somewhere in high 40's where TL is
would/could be a possible short term bounce point. But typically
most commodities don't make V shaped bottoms and oil supply
situation typically gets worse in Spring (less demand), Though we
may have some bounces, I personally think we'll have a fairly long
consolidation pattern before we see a major trend change. Also,
typically most times when you have a major sell off like oil has
had, even if it bounces pretty hard, typically you'll get a back
test that will often undercut prior lows.
Oil
Posted by racerick on 31st of Dec 2014 at 07:22 am
Brent making new lows here this am trading around 56. WTI trading around 53. Something has to give. Normal spread about $5 and has been holding $4.50 pretty consistently past week. Spread now right at $3. If you have access can go long Brent and short WTI for a return to normal spread. Last time I posted this was worth an easy win within a couple of days.
Where is your line in
Posted by rbreese on 31st of Dec 2014 at 09:15 am
Where is your line in the sand for support for WTI? Is it the support that Matt showed around 48 or so? THX for all your help. Robert
Agree with Steve
Posted by racerick on 31st of Dec 2014 at 09:26 am
Obviously down a lot and somewhere in high 40's where TL is would/could be a possible short term bounce point. But typically most commodities don't make V shaped bottoms and oil supply situation typically gets worse in Spring (less demand), Though we may have some bounces, I personally think we'll have a fairly long consolidation pattern before we see a major trend change. Also, typically most times when you have a major sell off like oil has had, even if it bounces pretty hard, typically you'll get a back test that will often undercut prior lows.
THX racerick as I
Posted by rbreese on 31st of Dec 2014 at 09:37 am
THX racerick as I agree it will be a LONG time for a Major bottom.
A CIT (top) on January
Posted by darnelds on 31st of Dec 2014 at 04:29 pm
A CIT (top) on January 1, 2003.
A CIT (bottom) on January 1, 2009. 6 years.
Here we are exactly 6 years later, January 1, 2015, approaching a 10-year trend line.
If that trend line acts as support on Steve's chart, the major bottom may be in the next couple of months with wide swings that may offer trades.
rbreese...I simply respect the trend
Posted by steve on 31st of Dec 2014 at 09:18 am
rbreese...I simply respect the trend until evidence changes on the time frame you trade.