Well on the cash SPX, the max draw down was less than $400 based
off 100,000, which is -0.4% since I'm using a round number of 10
it's easy to calculate the percentages. Generally I like to
place a stop above the intra day max draw down, so a stop >=
0.4% could do. Maybe if you wanted to give it room 0.5% or
0.75%. You never know the current trade will exceed the past intra
day draw downs but still end up being a winner so if you set it too
tight you can get stopped out but in the end the trade would have
worked, so hard to give an exact answer, but maybe this info helps
you decide,
Clearly if one didn't do the trade today because maybe you
thought we could go a little higher, any higher prices that you can
get from the close the condition will still be in place and risk
would be reduced. very short term on a 15 min looks like a bull
flag
What I did was sell 1 cc with a tiny gain, and kept the other1
cc and widened my stop-- so your explanation did help. But
then I decided to sell the 2nd cc, , so I would reenter
as one of your suggestions, should it go up to some resistance
point.
hello winter, ha kind of funny, I actually took some contracts
off too that I had short, around 6:15 EST for some profit, a friend
of mine recently completed a huge project where he compiled all the
trade history from every hr to every day into a huge database, he
was telling me that based on history tomorrow would be up based on
his stats, and after looking at futures tonight maybe we'll see
more upside, so that's fine I can just add back what I covered at
higher prices. I've asked him to compile the data for me into
a usable graph and is going to give the database to me so I can use
it for future things, anyway time for bed
also - on these exhaustion trades, it generally takes 3 - 5 days
before price closes back below the 8 MA
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Exhaustion trade
Exhaustion Statistics follow up
Posted by winter39 on 20th of Nov 2014 at 04:39 pm
How many point stop is generally used for this trade?
Thank you , and for your diligence in tracking this rare trade (4 times in 50 yrs)
Winter39
Well on the cash SPX,
Posted by matt on 20th of Nov 2014 at 04:42 pm
Well on the cash SPX, the max draw down was less than $400 based off 100,000, which is -0.4% since I'm using a round number of 10 it's easy to calculate the percentages. Generally I like to place a stop above the intra day max draw down, so a stop >= 0.4% could do. Maybe if you wanted to give it room 0.5% or 0.75%. You never know the current trade will exceed the past intra day draw downs but still end up being a winner so if you set it too tight you can get stopped out but in the end the trade would have worked, so hard to give an exact answer, but maybe this info helps you decide,
Clearly if one didn't do the trade today because maybe you thought we could go a little higher, any higher prices that you can get from the close the condition will still be in place and risk would be reduced. very short term on a 15 min looks like a bull flag
Exhaustion Trade
Posted by winter39 on 20th of Nov 2014 at 09:05 pm
Thank you very much Matt.
What I did was sell 1 cc with a tiny gain, and kept the other1 cc and widened my stop-- so your explanation did help. But then I decided to sell the 2nd cc, , so I would reenter as one of your suggestions, should it go up to some resistance point.
hello winter, ha kind of
Posted by matt on 21st of Nov 2014 at 01:13 am
hello winter, ha kind of funny, I actually took some contracts off too that I had short, around 6:15 EST for some profit, a friend of mine recently completed a huge project where he compiled all the trade history from every hr to every day into a huge database, he was telling me that based on history tomorrow would be up based on his stats, and after looking at futures tonight maybe we'll see more upside, so that's fine I can just add back what I covered at higher prices. I've asked him to compile the data for me into a usable graph and is going to give the database to me so I can use it for future things, anyway time for bed
also - on these exhaustion trades, it generally takes 3 - 5 days before price closes back below the 8 MA