Posted by scottdelara on 24th of Jan 2014 at 03:40 pm
It was suggested today by VIX afficianado Bill Luby that today's
move in the VIX (30% spike) is indicative of 'structural'
volatility, or volatility change that is so severe in nature that
it deserves a paradigm shift. While I would never outright disagree
with Bill, I would like to remind everyone that we are experiencing
this spike relative to an unusually low base VIX that was a 12 last
week. In fact, we had the lowest VIX settlement since 2007 this
week at 12.36. So, be willing to accept a paradigm change in
volatility - that this may be an inflection point of higher
volatility and perhaps a more challenging environment for equities,
but I would also not dare to turn my back on this equity market in
the midst of powerful earnings. So in other words, while I am aware
we could be at an inflection point I am going to continue to play
things by ear. Most of all, I will manage risk more tightly. For me
that mostly translates to less un-hedged premium overnight. Just my
2c.
as of Jan 22 68% of companies beat estimates and 57% topped
revs. whether or not you think thats powerful, relatively strong,
good, or whatever else you want to call it. doesn't matter.
earnings came in thursday and fri a bit more mixed. i wasn't so
much speaking to existing reports being powerful but the potential
of a powerful earnings season and how quickly expectations can
change.
the point is to avoid becoming convinced of an impending
correction based on what happened in the VIX Friday. I'm not trying
to argue the strength of earnings with anyone, rather offer my
opinion on volatility as a professional options trader. perhaps it
was not helpful.
Structural Volatility
Posted by scottdelara on 24th of Jan 2014 at 03:40 pm
It was suggested today by VIX afficianado Bill Luby that today's move in the VIX (30% spike) is indicative of 'structural' volatility, or volatility change that is so severe in nature that it deserves a paradigm shift. While I would never outright disagree with Bill, I would like to remind everyone that we are experiencing this spike relative to an unusually low base VIX that was a 12 last week. In fact, we had the lowest VIX settlement since 2007 this week at 12.36. So, be willing to accept a paradigm change in volatility - that this may be an inflection point of higher volatility and perhaps a more challenging environment for equities, but I would also not dare to turn my back on this equity market in the midst of powerful earnings. So in other words, while I am aware we could be at an inflection point I am going to continue to play things by ear. Most of all, I will manage risk more tightly. For me that mostly translates to less un-hedged premium overnight. Just my 2c.
what powerful earnings?
Posted by torvix on 25th of Jan 2014 at 07:04 am
powerful or good it doesnt matter
Posted by scottdelara on 25th of Jan 2014 at 10:56 am
as of Jan 22 68% of companies beat estimates and 57% topped revs. whether or not you think thats powerful, relatively strong, good, or whatever else you want to call it. doesn't matter. earnings came in thursday and fri a bit more mixed. i wasn't so much speaking to existing reports being powerful but the potential of a powerful earnings season and how quickly expectations can change.
the point is to avoid becoming convinced of an impending correction based on what happened in the VIX Friday. I'm not trying to argue the strength of earnings with anyone, rather offer my opinion on volatility as a professional options trader. perhaps it was not helpful.
but I would also not dare to turn my back on this equity market in the midst of powerful earnings
Posted by torvix on 26th of Jan 2014 at 06:09 am
what do you mean?
"but I would also not dare to turn my back on this equity market in the midst of powerful earnings"
Well, some must have believed
Posted by jroger on 24th of Jan 2014 at 04:19 pm
Well, some must have believed him, the VIX is above 18 after hours.
I would look beyond today and the after hours of today
Posted by scottdelara on 25th of Jan 2014 at 10:45 am
What, exactly do you mean
Posted by john9o9 on 24th of Jan 2014 at 04:14 pm
What, exactly do you mean by "powerful earnings"? Are they that good so far?