Don't know if this is possible or not. Seems that the Fed
is trying its hardest to jawbone rates, but day's like today make a
breakout more likely. Can't imagine an increase in yields
from 2.6% to nearly 5% as a good thing for anybody (despite what an
economist might tell you).
The interesting thing might be how much control the Fed actually
has over the bond market: ie. if $85 billion/month is enough?
The answer in the last six months is a resounding no.
Perhaps the Fed's narrative is dictated by the market and not
the other way around. Just food for thought.
then the question will be doe the markets continue to act
favorably or not.
Logic tells me it should be NO ...that more debt does not help
bankruptcy...but the markets like the crack as Matt says so logic
maybe has no place here....at least in the short run.
30 year T-bond
Posted by kalinm on 20th of Nov 2013 at 12:52 pm
Don't know if this is possible or not. Seems that the Fed is trying its hardest to jawbone rates, but day's like today make a breakout more likely. Can't imagine an increase in yields from 2.6% to nearly 5% as a good thing for anybody (despite what an economist might tell you).
With rates moving considerably higher,
Posted by wowten on 20th of Nov 2013 at 03:47 pm
With rates moving considerably higher, how long will it be before the fed sends out the messengers that taper is off.
With 17 trillion outstanding, how will just the interest be paid if rates continue to escalate? I don't see any chance of taper.
The interesting thing might be
Posted by kalinm on 20th of Nov 2013 at 04:26 pm
The interesting thing might be how much control the Fed actually has over the bond market: ie. if $85 billion/month is enough? The answer in the last six months is a resounding no. Perhaps the Fed's narrative is dictated by the market and not the other way around. Just food for thought.
Agree...so I am thinking more
Posted by wowten on 20th of Nov 2013 at 04:35 pm
Agree...so I am thinking more QE not less.
then the question will be doe the markets continue to act favorably or not.
Logic tells me it should be NO ...that more debt does not help bankruptcy...but the markets like the crack as Matt says so logic maybe has no place here....at least in the short run.
Yes guys I agree on
Posted by matt on 21st of Nov 2013 at 12:27 am
Yes guys I agree on the 30 year bonds etc, make sure to view tonight's newsletter, I show charts of TLT, IEF, and the 30 year bond yield