Otherwise clearly the trade is up today nicely so far, however
the question is, how will it close out the trade? Can it exit
before the market sells off again or not? In the video I show
what needs to happen in order for the system to exit.
Also here's another version of the system that uses 3 scale outs
of 20% of the position at a 1% again, another 20% at 2.5% again,
another 20% after a 4.5% gain, and the remaining 40% of the shares
are exited per the system.
Click here to viewthe Tradestation Performance Report of this multi scaleout
system
Otherwise as you know the other systems have not taking a long
yet and will need a deeper pullback such as the
SPY RSI 2 system
The momentum indicator is now red on the SPY systems, thus this
gives an exit signal for Monday's open for the SPY scale out system
and the SPY Ver 2 system. The SPY scaleout system already
scaled out twice as you know and does more trades than the SPY Ver
2 system. These daily systems do not exit longs at the close,
but exit them instead on the next day's open,
which would be on Monday's open.
The third chart shows my SPY 60 min system, which I don't email
trade signals out for) only members how have the TS systems have
access to it. It also went long on the
pullback albeit a bit early, it may exit today any time,
currently the momentum indicator is red and unless it turns green
it will exit at 1:30 EST, however it can change easily during the
day, so it's up in the air yet if this will flip or not, however
this system doesn't wait until the end of the day, it will exit
intra day
As you know this scaleout SPY system has scaled out twice
already, however the last scaleout at 4.5% is a ways away still,
not until a price of $161, the market has to exceed the highs by a
decent market had the SPX go perhaps into the 1610 range in order
for this to be met.
Otherwise the system will not exit when the momentum indicator
turns red and I'll let you know when that occurs
FYI the second scaleout was hit this morning on SPY at 157.99 at
the morning highs. Again in order to do the scaleouts you
guys need to have GTC limit sell orders placed ahead of time,
otherwise you won't catch the moving target
If I add this 'scaleout' system to the TS systems page on the
website and send signals to it, I won't be sending emails when the
system does a scaleout because by the time you receive the email
price will have changed a bunch, you will just have to place the
GTC limit sell orders in ahead of time at the profit targets.
man, today's high got within 6 cents of the second system scale
out!! perhaps it will still be hit this afternoon though. The
1st scaleout occurred yesterday, the second scale out is at 157.99,
today's high was 157.93
Posted by hawkinslf on 23rd of Apr 2013 at 04:11 pm
went ahead and pulled the rip cord at the close at 157.87.
I watched the high get to close to the second scale out and set up
a buy limit order which meant that I adjusted the 60% remaining in
a stop....of course...the little "flash crash" stopped me out of my
60%. Urgggggg..... Market is too flaky for my tastes,
so I held the second scale out until the close today and
bailed. That said, Matt, I really like this scale out
concept. For me as a swing trader, it lowers my risk.
At the end of the day I make 1.4% profit on this trade of 3
days. I will take it. Thanks.
With today's nice gap up, the SPY system is doing well on this
trade, the next profit target scaleout is at 2.5%, which is $157.99
or $158
HOWEVER the momentum indicator has turned green which means this
trade will be held for a longer period of time, until the momentum
turns red. Unless we have a major reversal today, the SPY
will be closing over it's 8 day MA, which would signal a sell
signal, however the fact that the moment indicator is now green,
the system will hold the trade longer. To be honest I would
rather just have the trade close out tomorrow morning and book its
profits vs holding. Perhaps this is a tweak I could look to
add to the system - i.e. if we are this close to May, do not use
the momentum trending indicator etc.
Anyway if you bought the system trade
last Thursday when the S&P 500 closes at 1541, you
have a nice profit with the S&P now at 1573, therefore decide
if you wish to book profits or just hold via the system
Market closing the day strong, will be interesting to see if the
SPY system can exit next week, just needs a close back over the 8
day MA, clearly if you bough yesterday you have a nice trade going
on, but will it get an exit we'll see. However I imagine that
it will at least hit one of the scaleouts
thx - however if you are following that scale out version, the
system scaled out of 20% of the position this morning at 155.78 at
the 1% target (see the attached chart), the next target is 2.5%
followed by 4.5%. When following those scaleouts it's best to
just place GTC sell limit orders ahead of time, vs trying to catch
those manually.
Again who knows if this trade will work out or not, it's a
riskier trader this late in April with May closing in. That
1539 - 1540 shelf support really needs to hold. I think in
order for this trade to play out, we need to see it exit the long
before May, otherwise I worry that it will get caught in the
typical sell in May/late April.
When I have time I'd like to investigate the daily SPY reversion
to mean systems and see if I can add a seasonality component/trade
logic for the typical late April - June weakness. Perhaps
have it where the system can still take a long during that time
frame but it has to be on a deeper pullback, or have a tighter
stop?
The system does well over the long run, but I'm not 100% happy
with it as it can get stuck in some bad trades particulary around
the May time frame that I feel can be limited with some extra
logic. It all takes time too add and work on this stuff, and
add logic/filters that don't affect past good trades, so it's
easier said than done of course
FYI the 2nd exit for the SPY system at 2.5% gain would be
$157.99, it would exit another 20% of the shares leaving 60%
remaining.
Otherwise per the system, a close over the 8 day SMA would also
trigger an exit for the system. Currently the 8 day SMA is at
$156.39, however this MA should drop again tomorrow as the slope is
currently negative. Therefore a modest up day tomorrow could cause
the system to exit the trade entirely (vs scaling out again), which
would be fine by me
Update on SPY system long trade from yesterday and video comments
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2013 at 11:59 am
As you know, the SPY Ver 2 system went long yesterday at the close, here's a URL , and I also sent out an email about it yesterday
CLICK HERE to watch a video update
Otherwise clearly the trade is up today nicely so far, however the question is, how will it close out the trade? Can it exit before the market sells off again or not? In the video I show what needs to happen in order for the system to exit.
Also here's another version of the system that uses 3 scale outs of 20% of the position at a 1% again, another 20% at 2.5% again, another 20% after a 4.5% gain, and the remaining 40% of the shares are exited per the system.
Click here to view the Tradestation Performance Report of this multi scaleout system
Otherwise as you know the other systems have not taking a long yet and will need a deeper pullback such as the SPY RSI 2 system
update on the SPY system: The
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2013 at 01:01 pm
update on the SPY system:
The momentum indicator is now red on the SPY systems, thus this gives an exit signal for Monday's open for the SPY scale out system and the SPY Ver 2 system. The SPY scaleout system already scaled out twice as you know and does more trades than the SPY Ver 2 system. These daily systems do not exit longs at the close, but exit them instead on the next day's open, which would be on Monday's open.
The third chart shows my SPY 60 min system, which I don't email trade signals out for) only members how have the TS systems have access to it. It also went long on the pullback albeit a bit early, it may exit today any time, currently the momentum indicator is red and unless it turns green it will exit at 1:30 EST, however it can change easily during the day, so it's up in the air yet if this will flip or not, however this system doesn't wait until the end of the day, it will exit intra day
The SPY 60 min system
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2013 at 02:54 pm
The SPY 60 min system closed out it's trades, here's the updated chart and stats
here's a link to the performance report
As you know this scaleout
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2013 at 09:12 am
As you know this scaleout SPY system has scaled out twice already, however the last scaleout at 4.5% is a ways away still, not until a price of $161, the market has to exceed the highs by a decent market had the SPX go perhaps into the 1610 range in order for this to be met.
Otherwise the system will not exit when the momentum indicator turns red and I'll let you know when that occurs
2nd scaleout hit this morning
Posted by matt on 24th of Apr 2013 at 10:12 am
FYI the second scaleout was hit this morning on SPY at 157.99 at the morning highs. Again in order to do the scaleouts you guys need to have GTC limit sell orders placed ahead of time, otherwise you won't catch the moving target
here's the chart and here's the updated performance report
2nd scaleout hit this morning
Posted by matt on 24th of Apr 2013 at 10:15 am
If I add this 'scaleout' system to the TS systems page on the website and send signals to it, I won't be sending emails when the system does a scaleout because by the time you receive the email price will have changed a bunch, you will just have to place the GTC limit sell orders in ahead of time at the profit targets.
man, today's high got within
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2013 at 12:39 pm
man, today's high got within 6 cents of the second system scale out!! perhaps it will still be hit this afternoon though. The 1st scaleout occurred yesterday, the second scale out is at 157.99, today's high was 157.93
SPY
Posted by hawkinslf on 23rd of Apr 2013 at 04:11 pm
went ahead and pulled the rip cord at the close at 157.87. I watched the high get to close to the second scale out and set up a buy limit order which meant that I adjusted the 60% remaining in a stop....of course...the little "flash crash" stopped me out of my 60%. Urgggggg..... Market is too flaky for my tastes, so I held the second scale out until the close today and bailed. That said, Matt, I really like this scale out concept. For me as a swing trader, it lowers my risk. At the end of the day I make 1.4% profit on this trade of 3 days. I will take it. Thanks.
With today's nice gap up,
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2013 at 09:45 am
With today's nice gap up, the SPY system is doing well on this trade, the next profit target scaleout is at 2.5%, which is $157.99 or $158
HOWEVER the momentum indicator has turned green which means this trade will be held for a longer period of time, until the momentum turns red. Unless we have a major reversal today, the SPY will be closing over it's 8 day MA, which would signal a sell signal, however the fact that the moment indicator is now green, the system will hold the trade longer. To be honest I would rather just have the trade close out tomorrow morning and book its profits vs holding. Perhaps this is a tweak I could look to add to the system - i.e. if we are this close to May, do not use the momentum trending indicator etc.
Anyway if you bought the system trade last Thursday when the S&P 500 closes at 1541, you have a nice profit with the S&P now at 1573, therefore decide if you wish to book profits or just hold via the system
Market closing the day strong,
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2013 at 03:52 pm
Market closing the day strong, will be interesting to see if the SPY system can exit next week, just needs a close back over the 8 day MA, clearly if you bough yesterday you have a nice trade going on, but will it get an exit we'll see. However I imagine that it will at least hit one of the scaleouts
SPY
Posted by hawkinslf on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 10:08 am
Matt....just to let you know that I am in the trade.
thx - however if you
Posted by matt on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 10:22 am
thx - however if you are following that scale out version, the system scaled out of 20% of the position this morning at 155.78 at the 1% target (see the attached chart), the next target is 2.5% followed by 4.5%. When following those scaleouts it's best to just place GTC sell limit orders ahead of time, vs trying to catch those manually.
Again who knows if this trade will work out or not, it's a riskier trader this late in April with May closing in. That 1539 - 1540 shelf support really needs to hold. I think in order for this trade to play out, we need to see it exit the long before May, otherwise I worry that it will get caught in the typical sell in May/late April.
Hi....missed the scale out, have
Posted by hawkinslf on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 10:27 am
Hi....missed the scale out, have it set up to see if the SPY come back. have a 2% trailing stop. Are you doing something different with a stop?
no difference on a stop
Posted by matt on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 10:48 am
no difference on a stop at this point,
When I have time I'd like to investigate the daily SPY reversion to mean systems and see if I can add a seasonality component/trade logic for the typical late April - June weakness. Perhaps have it where the system can still take a long during that time frame but it has to be on a deeper pullback, or have a tighter stop?
The system does well over the long run, but I'm not 100% happy with it as it can get stuck in some bad trades particulary around the May time frame that I feel can be limited with some extra logic. It all takes time too add and work on this stuff, and add logic/filters that don't affect past good trades, so it's easier said than done of course
Thanks....I appreciate all you and
Posted by hawkinslf on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 12:40 pm
Thanks....I appreciate all you and Steve do.
FYI the 2nd exit for
Posted by matt on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 01:52 pm
FYI the 2nd exit for the SPY system at 2.5% gain would be $157.99, it would exit another 20% of the shares leaving 60% remaining.
Otherwise per the system, a close over the 8 day SMA would also trigger an exit for the system. Currently the 8 day SMA is at $156.39, however this MA should drop again tomorrow as the slope is currently negative. Therefore a modest up day tomorrow could cause the system to exit the trade entirely (vs scaling out again), which would be fine by me
Got the 1st scale out;
Posted by hawkinslf on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 02:38 pm
Got the 1st scale out; can set a sell stop on the 2nd scale out but not sure how to set a stop on the 8 day SMA. Thanks.
FYI if SPY closes above
Posted by matt on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 02:45 pm
FYI if SPY closes above a price of $156.46 today, the SPY system will exit this trade tomorrow on the open!
got it!
Posted by hawkinslf on 22nd of Apr 2013 at 02:47 pm
got it!