Posted by chartboy on 17th of Apr 2013 at 06:13 pm
The symetry within the GDX's recent decline indicates the
potential completion of the short term pattern. Notice that major
after the prior gap a two day range formed, then todayn that range
was broke. The break of the range set a 1.618 extension target for
todays decline at 27.33.
Now, it is zero coincidence that all of the significant
retracements to the orignal gap fill overlap. Specifically the .382
and .618 are straddling the old range.
What does this mean? Very simple (an A-B-C has formed). This is
not a "random" decline and instead is an orderly liquidation. Also,
it indicates the "potential" that this leg of the decline has been
completed.
Not something you would trade blindly, only something to keep in
mind as part of a sequence trading approach.
Finally, it is also noted that the end of day volume pattern was
indicative of a possible MOC liquidation. If that is the case that
would lend credence to the possibility of an overnight upside gap
forming.
Posted by chartboy on 17th of Apr 2013 at 08:32 pm
Thanks Steve...how about we take this one step further!
We know as a fact (given the perfect symmetry) that this is a
series of Fib patterns (fractals). We also know that the largest
and most obvious pattern in play is the large A-B-C which played
out at today's low with A=C.
With that info we can get a pretty solid expectation concerning
two things. First, either the low is in and we will start retracing
Wave C with the first stop at the .236 retrace at 28.09. Or more
likely we are retracing the entire ABC with a .236 retrace at 28.46
which is not coincidentally also horizontal resistance. Finally, we
also know if the pattern is not complete...almost certainly the low
will be complete at C=1.382 of A or at C=1.618 of A.
Those downside targets are 26.3 and 25.4 respectively.
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Apr 2013 at 10:04 am
Boing!...as anticipated last night. Right into the .236 of Wave
C. Most likely the .236 of the ABC will be a more realistic
target.
Going one step further, in theory we may be setting the head of
a H&S pattern here with yesterdays low (left shoulder being on
the 15th). Lots of work for that to come to fruitiion first
though.
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Apr 2013 at 11:00 am
No problem..I am trying to post more but having great
difficulty…not sure if that last post about Gold (GLD) testing the
.236 retracement even made it here or not…
yep you used fib projections - if price were to take out
yesterday's lows, just lower your 50% fib to the 29 area and that
will give you your next target. I showed your chart in last
night's newsletter as well
Posted by chartboy on 17th of Apr 2013 at 06:24 pm
My apologies for the typos...the interface here has been very
tough to work with the past few days making editing an ordeal as
the cursor jumps around.
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GDX...Fib symetries indicating a possible reversal
Posted by chartboy on 17th of Apr 2013 at 06:13 pm
The symetry within the GDX's recent decline indicates the potential completion of the short term pattern. Notice that major after the prior gap a two day range formed, then todayn that range was broke. The break of the range set a 1.618 extension target for todays decline at 27.33.
Now, it is zero coincidence that all of the significant retracements to the orignal gap fill overlap. Specifically the .382 and .618 are straddling the old range.
What does this mean? Very simple (an A-B-C has formed). This is not a "random" decline and instead is an orderly liquidation. Also, it indicates the "potential" that this leg of the decline has been completed.
Not something you would trade blindly, only something to keep in mind as part of a sequence trading approach.
Finally, it is also noted that the end of day volume pattern was indicative of a possible MOC liquidation. If that is the case that would lend credence to the possibility of an overnight upside gap forming.
Chartboy...excellent Fib projections. Now let's
Posted by steve on 17th of Apr 2013 at 06:58 pm
Chartboy...excellent Fib projections. Now let's see if traders react. Need the BOTS to reverse course.
steve, what are BOTS?
Posted by 8899 on 17th of Apr 2013 at 08:36 pm
Thanks Steve...how about we take
Posted by chartboy on 17th of Apr 2013 at 08:32 pm
Thanks Steve...how about we take this one step further!
We know as a fact (given the perfect symmetry) that this is a series of Fib patterns (fractals). We also know that the largest and most obvious pattern in play is the large A-B-C which played out at today's low with A=C.
With that info we can get a pretty solid expectation concerning two things. First, either the low is in and we will start retracing Wave C with the first stop at the .236 retrace at 28.09. Or more likely we are retracing the entire ABC with a .236 retrace at 28.46 which is not coincidentally also horizontal resistance. Finally, we also know if the pattern is not complete...almost certainly the low will be complete at C=1.382 of A or at C=1.618 of A.
Those downside targets are 26.3 and 25.4 respectively.
Boing!...as anticipated last night. Right
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Apr 2013 at 10:04 am
Boing!...as anticipated last night. Right into the .236 of Wave C. Most likely the .236 of the ABC will be a more realistic target.
Going one step further, in theory we may be setting the head of a H&S pattern here with yesterdays low (left shoulder being on the 15th). Lots of work for that to come to fruitiion first though.
Chartboy...thanks again for sharing your
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2013 at 10:58 am
Chartboy...thanks again for sharing your Fib analysis.
No problem..I am trying to
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Apr 2013 at 11:00 am
No problem..I am trying to post more but having great difficulty…not sure if that last post about Gold (GLD) testing the .236 retracement even made it here or not…
I don't see your GLD
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2013 at 11:01 am
I don't see your GLD post.
yep you used fib projections
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2013 at 10:05 am
yep you used fib projections - if price were to take out yesterday's lows, just lower your 50% fib to the 29 area and that will give you your next target. I showed your chart in last night's newsletter as well
My apologies for the typos...the
Posted by chartboy on 17th of Apr 2013 at 06:24 pm
My apologies for the typos...the interface here has been very tough to work with the past few days making editing an ordeal as the cursor jumps around.