Posted by dallahoo on 10th of Sep 2008 at 10:38 am
if it is only the measure of worth that one seeks, in times of
financial hardship (aka credit-is-tighter-than-a-spy's-lips) a
financial company should be evaluated based on its balance sheet,
and nothing, nothing else. Not income statement, not dividend
ratio, not CNBC, not Paulson, not Jimbo-The-Clown, not Korean
overtures, just the balance sheet. Now, take a look at the balance
sheet, assuming it is truthful, big assumption, I know, you still
get the answer to how much they are worth. The rest is smoke and
mirror. Those who shorted Fannie from way back when, knew there
were financial problems, just did the math and sat through all the
turbulance and came out victorious
Posted by rgoodwin on 10th of Sep 2008 at 10:45 am
BUt bad management can take down a good balance sheet - plenty
of historical accounts. They could become only worth the cash they
have and buildings they own - which in today's market - those too
are going down in value.
Posted by dallahoo on 10th of Sep 2008 at 10:56 am
that's very true, and will make the job of a fundamental analyst
very hard, he has to take a lot of economical risk parameters into
equation, and I mean a real analyst, not dime-dozen monkeys, with
after-the-fact revision that they parade on TV,
one reason I have not used my number crunching skill for
years,
but let's start with current state of LEH's balance sheet, what
are they really worth?
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if it is only the
LEH
Posted by dallahoo on 10th of Sep 2008 at 10:38 am
if it is only the measure of worth that one seeks, in times of financial hardship (aka credit-is-tighter-than-a-spy's-lips) a financial company should be evaluated based on its balance sheet, and nothing, nothing else. Not income statement, not dividend ratio, not CNBC, not Paulson, not Jimbo-The-Clown, not Korean overtures, just the balance sheet. Now, take a look at the balance sheet, assuming it is truthful, big assumption, I know, you still get the answer to how much they are worth. The rest is smoke and mirror. Those who shorted Fannie from way back when, knew there were financial problems, just did the math and sat through all the turbulance and came out victorious
BUt bad management can take
Posted by rgoodwin on 10th of Sep 2008 at 10:45 am
BUt bad management can take down a good balance sheet - plenty of historical accounts. They could become only worth the cash they have and buildings they own - which in today's market - those too are going down in value.
that's very true, and will
Posted by dallahoo on 10th of Sep 2008 at 10:56 am
that's very true, and will make the job of a fundamental analyst very hard, he has to take a lot of economical risk parameters into equation, and I mean a real analyst, not dime-dozen monkeys, with after-the-fact revision that they parade on TV, one reason I have not used my number crunching skill for years,
but let's start with current state of LEH's balance sheet, what are they really worth?