As you know, the XLE swing system took a long trade from Jan 4th
to Jan 30th for a very nice 5.2% trade, the system then went to
cash and has been sitting in cash since. However some of you
may have taken an aggressive short, if you still have that short
it's finally starting to look better.
Otherwise it appears that today at the close the XLE system will
take a short position. I've attached the XLE swing system
trades to this email as well as the BPENER chart.
Otherwise even though this is the XLE system, one thing that I
have commented on in the past is that it has been more profitable
trading OIH or XOP in place of XLE. Here's a link to two
Tradestation Performance reports which show the XLE system and a
version if you traded OIH in place of XLE.
I don't expect the XLE trade to be a big trade, at least that's
my bias at this time, my thoughts are still that the market might
have a pullback but then attempt another move at highs again in
March or April, I could see the XLE short either being a minor
losing trade or minor winning trade, we'll see I guess.
Anyone have an issue with borrowing shares of XLE to short
at the close? Received a couple different 'trade rejected' messages
trying to borrow (500) shares via Tradestation.
LOL what Mickey Mouse broker not to have those available to
short. I never have any issues like that with IB
anyway one could short ERX (the 3X long) or go long ERY (-3X
ETF), however if you do the -3X ETF's ONLY do 1/3 of the position
you would have taken with XLE because they move 3X, this keeps the
capital risk the same.
I prefer to short the Long ETF vs going long the inverse ETF in
case the ETF degrades over time.
otherwise realize that the market is oversold at this point, so
a short term bounce is not out of the question
XLE / OIH BPENER swing system
Posted by matt on 20th of Feb 2013 at 03:42 pm
As you know, the XLE swing system took a long trade from Jan 4th to Jan 30th for a very nice 5.2% trade, the system then went to cash and has been sitting in cash since. However some of you may have taken an aggressive short, if you still have that short it's finally starting to look better.
Otherwise it appears that today at the close the XLE system will take a short position. I've attached the XLE swing system trades to this email as well as the BPENER chart.
Otherwise even though this is the XLE system, one thing that I have commented on in the past is that it has been more profitable trading OIH or XOP in place of XLE. Here's a link to two Tradestation Performance reports which show the XLE system and a version if you traded OIH in place of XLE.
XLE Detailed System Report (note this file will only open in Internet Explorer)
OIH Detailed System Report (note this file will only open in Internet Explorer)
As always this is not a recommendation to buy or sell - this is for informational purposes only, you make your own trading decisions.
GOLD Bottom in 1555 Overnight
Posted by elliotwav on 21st of Feb 2013 at 11:02 am
XLE not available for shorting
Posted by bepinyc on 21st of Feb 2013 at 07:15 am
I can't short XLE on IB.
What if I short iShares Global Energy instead? They seem correlated enough.
as I said - OIH
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2013 at 08:38 am
as I said - OIH works well. you can also short ERX or go long ERY (but do 1/3 position only for the 3X ETF's so that that the risk is the same)
I don't expect the XLE
Posted by matt on 20th of Feb 2013 at 08:02 pm
I don't expect the XLE trade to be a big trade, at least that's my bias at this time, my thoughts are still that the market might have a pullback but then attempt another move at highs again in March or April, I could see the XLE short either being a minor losing trade or minor winning trade, we'll see I guess.
XLE Short
Posted by lambeau on 20th of Feb 2013 at 07:44 pm
Anyone have an issue with borrowing shares of XLE to short at the close? Received a couple different 'trade rejected' messages trying to borrow (500) shares via Tradestation.
i shorted oih at ameritrade with no issues
Posted by cycy on 20th of Feb 2013 at 07:56 pm
is there an inverse to XLE instead shorting
Posted by stsystem on 20th of Feb 2013 at 03:55 pm
is there an inverse to XLE instead shorting
DUG Proshares ULTRA Short Oil & Gas
Posted by elliotwav on 20th of Feb 2013 at 04:05 pm
OIH and XLE not available
Posted by oops1e on 20th of Feb 2013 at 04:46 pm
OIH and XLE not available to borrow at TD Ameritrade (thinkorswim)!
LOL what Mickey Mouse broker
Posted by matt on 20th of Feb 2013 at 04:50 pm
LOL what Mickey Mouse broker not to have those available to short. I never have any issues like that with IB
anyway one could short ERX (the 3X long) or go long ERY (-3X ETF), however if you do the -3X ETF's ONLY do 1/3 of the position you would have taken with XLE because they move 3X, this keeps the capital risk the same.
I prefer to short the Long ETF vs going long the inverse ETF in case the ETF degrades over time.
otherwise realize that the market is oversold at this point, so a short term bounce is not out of the question
I know, what a joke!
Posted by oops1e on 20th of Feb 2013 at 08:51 pm
I know, what a joke! Thats TD Ameritrade for ya. Perhaps its because it was after hours, I'll take another look when the market reopens.
no - and avoid the
Posted by matt on 20th of Feb 2013 at 03:56 pm
no - and avoid the triple leveraged ETF's like ERY and ERX