We have some semblance of positive divergence on the 60 min
EURUSD but nothing on the 4 hour which I would like. We did
also come in and touch the 200Day SMA on the daily. I have
found in recent history the EURUSD has respected the 200 day but it
can also slightly violate. I think the touch of the 200 could
definitely be an entry point with a stop but otherwise I would like
to possibly see a slight violation maybe down to the 34 week and
better divergence on the intraday charts. Overall I still
like the move to the 1.34 area with the confluence there and then
looking at the dollar it just doesn't feel like a chart ready to
rip back to new highs to me and has a potential H&S on the
weekly and still has that small downside gap.
So far the 200 Daily MA and 34 Weekly MA have held. Not
the positive divergence I was looking for in the 4 hour chart but
news can sometimes make you take what you can get.
We continued to hold the 200MA and 34 week overnight. Now
it looks like we could possibly be setting up an inverse H&S on
the 60 min chart. Using the 4 hour for a cleaner view it
looks like it would extend into the 1.31 area. That might be
the top of a triangle on the daily would would roughly then count
to the 1.34 target range shown on the weekly.
As Matt noted on the dollar index the EURUSD is still playing
out higher as the dollar moves lower and the correlation in
movement between the EURUSD and S&P has definitely been
interesting.
The 200 day MA (and 13 week MA) held as hoped and this rally of
positive divergence on the Daily has been really straight forward.
Target remains in the 1.34 area with the confluence of fibs
and the 89 week MA.
Not picture perfect but still seems to be working on a
consolidation with the high at the 38 fib on weekly and low the 200
day SMA. Still looking to see the daily MACD recycle.
Obviously this will be somewhat counter to the USD which
would continue to press lower as eurusd moves higher due to
correlations.
I am not the most patient person but this continues to be in
play. Now will it take the market higher with it? Will
the two decouple? Or will it take it but to truncated highs
in the S&P?
Today's move in the dollar has definitely put this scenario into
peril. Still holding the 200 Day and has the 13 and 34 Weekly
MA's starting to move up with a nice slope but no divergence on the
intraday charts. Want to see the 200 hold.
As you would expect the dollar is mainly the inverse.
Still don't like the overall pattern of the weekly but those
do take time to play out. In the meantime the 4 hour RSI is
starting to become overbought - not a signal itself but maybe a
sign of some consolidation/rest which could lend to one more rally
into the 200 day MA and maybe then a top there with the Daily MACD
recycling just over 0 and intraday divergence.
EURUSD / USD
Posted by tom on 26th of Sep 2012 at 09:33 am
We have some semblance of positive divergence on the 60 min EURUSD but nothing on the 4 hour which I would like. We did also come in and touch the 200Day SMA on the daily. I have found in recent history the EURUSD has respected the 200 day but it can also slightly violate. I think the touch of the 200 could definitely be an entry point with a stop but otherwise I would like to possibly see a slight violation maybe down to the 34 week and better divergence on the intraday charts. Overall I still like the move to the 1.34 area with the confluence there and then looking at the dollar it just doesn't feel like a chart ready to rip back to new highs to me and has a potential H&S on the weekly and still has that small downside gap.
So far the 200 Daily
Posted by tom on 27th of Sep 2012 at 03:01 pm
So far the 200 Daily MA and 34 Weekly MA have held. Not the positive divergence I was looking for in the 4 hour chart but news can sometimes make you take what you can get.
We continued to hold the
Posted by tom on 28th of Sep 2012 at 09:27 am
We continued to hold the 200MA and 34 week overnight. Now it looks like we could possibly be setting up an inverse H&S on the 60 min chart. Using the 4 hour for a cleaner view it looks like it would extend into the 1.31 area. That might be the top of a triangle on the daily would would roughly then count to the 1.34 target range shown on the weekly.
A move down Friday was
Posted by tom on 2nd of Oct 2012 at 11:32 am
A move down Friday was negated by early Monday and left the 4 hour chart with much better divergence which was something I was looking for.
As Matt noted on the
Posted by tom on 4th of Oct 2012 at 03:32 pm
As Matt noted on the dollar index the EURUSD is still playing out higher as the dollar moves lower and the correlation in movement between the EURUSD and S&P has definitely been interesting.
Looking for the Daily MACD
Posted by tom on 9th of Oct 2012 at 09:11 am
Looking for the Daily MACD to Recycle while not breaching the 200 Day SMA.
The 200 day MA (and
Posted by tom on 18th of Oct 2012 at 08:18 am
The 200 day MA (and 13 week MA) held as hoped and this rally of positive divergence on the Daily has been really straight forward. Target remains in the 1.34 area with the confluence of fibs and the 89 week MA.
Not picture perfect but still
Posted by tom on 19th of Oct 2012 at 09:49 am
Not picture perfect but still seems to be working on a consolidation with the high at the 38 fib on weekly and low the 200 day SMA. Still looking to see the daily MACD recycle. Obviously this will be somewhat counter to the USD which would continue to press lower as eurusd moves higher due to correlations.
I am not the most
Posted by tom on 1st of Nov 2012 at 08:37 am
I am not the most patient person but this continues to be in play. Now will it take the market higher with it? Will the two decouple? Or will it take it but to truncated highs in the S&P?
Today's move in the dollar
Posted by tom on 2nd of Nov 2012 at 12:39 pm
Today's move in the dollar has definitely put this scenario into peril. Still holding the 200 Day and has the 13 and 34 Weekly MA's starting to move up with a nice slope but no divergence on the intraday charts. Want to see the 200 hold.
As you would expect the
Posted by tom on 2nd of Nov 2012 at 12:45 pm
As you would expect the dollar is mainly the inverse. Still don't like the overall pattern of the weekly but those do take time to play out. In the meantime the 4 hour RSI is starting to become overbought - not a signal itself but maybe a sign of some consolidation/rest which could lend to one more rally into the 200 day MA and maybe then a top there with the Daily MACD recycling just over 0 and intraday divergence.
Thanks Tom. Great charts!
Posted by tomW1 on 26th of Sep 2012 at 09:36 am