May 1st key high. European crisis concerns. Domestic
"fiscal cliff" concerns. Complacency. The similarities
are striking -- even the chart patterns. By this chart
pattern, tomorrow might mark a key top -- one difference has been
the $VIX which made a new low today. That would be short term
bullish, so we'll see how well this all plays out.
Well, I got burned thinking that about the Santa Claus rally.
Seasonality is very powerful. I have noted the similarities
between 2012 and 2011 for about 3.5 months and it has been working.
I'm not totally fixated on this scenario playing out, just
noting greater odds that a breakdown from this area has the
potential to pick up steam and become something nasty. Funny
how during all the last six weeks, Europe has gone quiet.... like
the calm before the storm.
2011 redux
Posted by kalinm on 18th of Jul 2012 at 01:51 am
May 1st key high. European crisis concerns. Domestic "fiscal cliff" concerns. Complacency. The similarities are striking -- even the chart patterns. By this chart pattern, tomorrow might mark a key top -- one difference has been the $VIX which made a new low today. That would be short term bullish, so we'll see how well this all plays out.
Symmetry
Posted by pwb8 on 18th of Jul 2012 at 09:18 am
Amazing symmetry between 2011 and today.
This market is salivating, waiting for QE3. If it does not come soon, your scenario could play out quickly.
Personally, I am keeping at least 2/3rds of my portfolio in cash until market direction becomes clear.
2011 Symmetry
Posted by sethbru on 18th of Jul 2012 at 10:26 am
Wouldn't that be too easy for the shorts if we just repeated last year's pattern? The Market is never that predictable.
Well, I got burned thinking
Posted by kalinm on 18th of Jul 2012 at 02:47 pm
Well, I got burned thinking that about the Santa Claus rally. Seasonality is very powerful. I have noted the similarities between 2012 and 2011 for about 3.5 months and it has been working. I'm not totally fixated on this scenario playing out, just noting greater odds that a breakdown from this area has the potential to pick up steam and become something nasty. Funny how during all the last six weeks, Europe has gone quiet.... like the calm before the storm.
Title: not so in Spanish
Posted by stockus on 18th of Jul 2012 at 02:55 pm
approaching 7% again.