frtaylor - after the initial reaction and euphoria, traders came
back to reality and understood that the problems in Europe are far
from over and that solves nothing.
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 10:53 am
I suppose so, but that always looks like ex post facto analysis
to me. I find it interesting how hard it is to divine where
it will go, even given good news and futures action. If the
traders came back to reality, why were their actions counter to
that (futures) in the first place? Know what I mean?
I'm short some things, so I'm certainly relieved, as this
morning it looked like I'd be stopped out of a bunch of stuff
(still may! you never know).
from a bigger picture perspective. It is clear we have hit some
kind of bottom and that usually means some kind of seller
exhaustion. I would not short now unless you are hedging some
longs. I am long and have been for a week and I have my stop below
the clear bottom on the SPX. Seems pretty low risk to me.
good call off the low and there were good reasons for a bounce
there not the least of which was the fakeout break of the 200ma.
But this looks to me like there's plenty of reasons to stall and be
a choppy mess for a while
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 12:11 pm
Right - I think a second time through Matt's newsletter is in
order. Certainly SPX last week broke through the bull wedge
that had formed on the daily. So a pullback would be just
that, and could easily play out in an inv H/S as Matt has laid out.
I'm not heavily short right now, and I have reasonably tight
stops on my shorts (VR, VRSK, GDX, PKI), and I'm not counting on a
new bottom although it would not surprise me.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
frtaylor - after the initial
5 min SPX
Posted by matt on 11th of Jun 2012 at 10:44 am
frtaylor - after the initial reaction and euphoria, traders came back to reality and understood that the problems in Europe are far from over and that solves nothing.
yes TomW1, sell the news...
I suppose so, but that
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 10:53 am
I suppose so, but that always looks like ex post facto analysis to me. I find it interesting how hard it is to divine where it will go, even given good news and futures action. If the traders came back to reality, why were their actions counter to that (futures) in the first place? Know what I mean? I'm short some things, so I'm certainly relieved, as this morning it looked like I'd be stopped out of a bunch of stuff (still may! you never know).
I think you need to step back and look at the chart
Posted by tomW1 on 11th of Jun 2012 at 12:03 pm
from a bigger picture perspective. It is clear we have hit some kind of bottom and that usually means some kind of seller exhaustion. I would not short now unless you are hedging some longs. I am long and have been for a week and I have my stop below the clear bottom on the SPX. Seems pretty low risk to me.
SPY 60 min
Posted by bkout3 on 11th of Jun 2012 at 12:12 pm
good call off the low and there were good reasons for a bounce there not the least of which was the fakeout break of the 200ma. But this looks to me like there's plenty of reasons to stall and be a choppy mess for a while
Right - I think a
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 12:11 pm
Right - I think a second time through Matt's newsletter is in order. Certainly SPX last week broke through the bull wedge that had formed on the daily. So a pullback would be just that, and could easily play out in an inv H/S as Matt has laid out. I'm not heavily short right now, and I have reasonably tight stops on my shorts (VR, VRSK, GDX, PKI), and I'm not counting on a new bottom although it would not surprise me.