1) GDXJ took out all-time lows ($900 gold
equivalent) from late 2009. 2) The 30% bounce in
the GDXJ index off the May lows is a bit deceiving since the larger
cap members bounced that much. Smaller , higher beta GDXJ
issues bounced 50% or more. 3) For the first time since early
2011, all issues are in phase at multiyear lows, having taken
50-80% haircuts from highs. Many were hanging sideways in a
frightening tree branch pattern.
In April, it seemed obvious to me that gold stocks were pointing
to gold going down. Now, the divergence with gold on this
bounce is so great, I don't think it matters much what gold does,
but stocks are definitely pointing to higher gold.
Obviously, if the criminals can pull what they did in 2008, they
can do it again - all forward-looking statements included, blah
blah. But these stocks are not going off the board. The
financial condition of many of these companies is much better than
in 2008. A number of these are profitable, stable 200k
producers in great jurisdictions. Most
others are cashed up late development plays coming online in the
next year or two with 5-10m ounces. These are not drill
plays with $1m cash in the bank about to face a major dilution.
Included for reference is a photo of a "bottoming bell."
Study it closely for future reference
.
... which is why I think a significant bottom is in ... unlike
the last two 50 % bounces in the gold indexes over the past 12
months, I was begging the gold gods not to let these stocks
fall, knowing the amount of devastation that was possible.
Now, I'm begging for them to come back down. This is
probably as nicely bracketed , wide range I can recall in the gold
sector. And it's undergirded by sound fundamentals and
negative sentiment and record volume in the GDXJ etc..
Moreover, bellcow AEM (RGLD etc.) has already "retested" it's
lows twice in April and May and made higher lows. This stock
didn't go lower then - it isn't going lower now. It projects
to $48. This is an explosive cupping formation. If it
gets to $48 via 37 or 34 I would jump for joy. If it
gets to $34 via $48, which I would consider more likely now, I
wouldn't care for that so much.
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Ringing A Bell On GDXJ Bottom
Posted by cmunny on 8th of Jun 2012 at 11:16 am
All gold stocks, all the time .... here's why.
1) GDXJ took out all-time lows ($900 gold equivalent) from late 2009. 2) The 30% bounce in the GDXJ index off the May lows is a bit deceiving since the larger cap members bounced that much. Smaller , higher beta GDXJ issues bounced 50% or more. 3) For the first time since early 2011, all issues are in phase at multiyear lows, having taken 50-80% haircuts from highs. Many were hanging sideways in a frightening tree branch pattern.
In April, it seemed obvious to me that gold stocks were pointing to gold going down. Now, the divergence with gold on this bounce is so great, I don't think it matters much what gold does, but stocks are definitely pointing to higher gold.
Obviously, if the criminals can pull what they did in 2008, they can do it again - all forward-looking statements included, blah blah. But these stocks are not going off the board. The financial condition of many of these companies is much better than in 2008. A number of these are profitable, stable 200k producers in great jurisdictions. Most others are cashed up late development plays coming online in the next year or two with 5-10m ounces. These are not drill plays with $1m cash in the bank about to face a major dilution.
Included for reference is a photo of a "bottoming bell." Study it closely for future reference
.
seems like we need a
Posted by joe12pack on 8th of Jun 2012 at 11:25 am
seems like we need a retest of the low to confirm....
This Time I Want Gold Stocks To Come Back Down
Posted by cmunny on 8th of Jun 2012 at 02:25 pm
... which is why I think a significant bottom is in ... unlike the last two 50 % bounces in the gold indexes over the past 12 months, I was begging the gold gods not to let these stocks fall, knowing the amount of devastation that was possible. Now, I'm begging for them to come back down. This is probably as nicely bracketed , wide range I can recall in the gold sector. And it's undergirded by sound fundamentals and negative sentiment and record volume in the GDXJ etc..
Moreover, bellcow AEM (RGLD etc.) has already "retested" it's lows twice in April and May and made higher lows. This stock didn't go lower then - it isn't going lower now. It projects to $48. This is an explosive cupping formation. If it gets to $48 via 37 or 34 I would jump for joy. If it gets to $34 via $48, which I would consider more likely now, I wouldn't care for that so much.