Posted by frtaylor on 20th of May 2012 at 09:14 am
If the past S&P price action is any guide (June 2010, Aug
2011), on a daily chart we may get a
higherlow after the initial bounce, then a higher high vs.
the initial bounce. The lower low would be after all that.
I'm also keeping in mind the Democratic Presidential re-election
stats in which the markets would make a new high in June vs. the
April high. If that happens we won't see a lower low for quite a
few weeks.
yeah I think the market will probably get a short term bounce,
like we saw on the charts below, then after the bounce the market
will pullback and make one more low
Posted by lsherrer on 20th of May 2012 at 10:14 pm
Don't forget to give us the time scale for statements like this.
A "short-term bounce" could show up only on a 60-min chart, or you
could be talking about a bounce of several days/weeks. Try to be as
time-specific as you can. I have no problem when you accompany your
comments with a chart because I can see the time scale of the chart
you are talking about.
In this case, how long of a "short-term bounce" are you talking
about?
I dont' have a crystal ball, I can't tell you exactly.
However I was already specific enough with my comments
regarding the NYMO chart, just go look at that chart, it's a daily
chart and not a 60 min chart, refer to Aug - Oct of last year, the
market put in a few oversold bounces then made a lower low while
the NYMO made a higher low. Then look at May - July of 2010,
the market did the same thing, it had a couple oversold
bounces before making a new low while the NYMO formed a higher low.
Obviously these events last for days and weeks, not short
term 60 min per your comment, obviously I'm referring to something
that could take days and weeks to occur. The NYMO chart is a
daily chart, not a 60 min chart, it would take time for a divergent
low to form - use what happened on that chart as a guildeline for
your timeframe.
Now again, does it have to play out like this, hell no, it's
just a guess, as always adapt and react to how the market behaves
and don't be locked into that something has to play out a certain
way.
I also just threw this scenario out there as a possibility, not
really as something to get too caught up in yet, the market hasn't
even bounced yet, too early to call for sure.
Everyone is super emotional now, try to put emotion aside, that
only clouds objectivity.
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Correction Low Maybe Weeks Away.
Posted by leepartacz on 19th of May 2012 at 11:09 pm
Carl Swenlin - Chartwatchers
If the past S&P price
Posted by frtaylor on 20th of May 2012 at 09:14 am
If the past S&P price action is any guide (June 2010, Aug 2011), on a daily chart we may get a higherlow after the initial bounce, then a higher high vs. the initial bounce. The lower low would be after all that.
I'm also keeping in mind the Democratic Presidential re-election stats in which the markets would make a new high in June vs. the April high. If that happens we won't see a lower low for quite a few weeks.
A higher high once the market figures out....
Posted by zach06 on 20th of May 2012 at 08:12 pm
there will be no Democratic Reelection if I have anything to do with it.
Nice chart, right in line
Posted by frtaylor on 20th of May 2012 at 08:48 am
Nice chart, right in line w/ Matt's NYMO chart in terms of looking for a lower low after a bounce. Maybe Swenlin is a BPT subscriber?
yeah I think the market
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2012 at 12:26 am
yeah I think the market will probably get a short term bounce, like we saw on the charts below, then after the bounce the market will pullback and make one more low
Don't forget to give us
Posted by lsherrer on 20th of May 2012 at 10:14 pm
Don't forget to give us the time scale for statements like this. A "short-term bounce" could show up only on a 60-min chart, or you could be talking about a bounce of several days/weeks. Try to be as time-specific as you can. I have no problem when you accompany your comments with a chart because I can see the time scale of the chart you are talking about.
In this case, how long of a "short-term bounce" are you talking about?
Thanks.
I dont' have a crystal
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2012 at 11:02 pm
I dont' have a crystal ball, I can't tell you exactly. However I was already specific enough with my comments regarding the NYMO chart, just go look at that chart, it's a daily chart and not a 60 min chart, refer to Aug - Oct of last year, the market put in a few oversold bounces then made a lower low while the NYMO made a higher low. Then look at May - July of 2010, the market did the same thing, it had a couple oversold bounces before making a new low while the NYMO formed a higher low. Obviously these events last for days and weeks, not short term 60 min per your comment, obviously I'm referring to something that could take days and weeks to occur. The NYMO chart is a daily chart, not a 60 min chart, it would take time for a divergent low to form - use what happened on that chart as a guildeline for your timeframe.
Now again, does it have to play out like this, hell no, it's just a guess, as always adapt and react to how the market behaves and don't be locked into that something has to play out a certain way.
I also just threw this scenario out there as a possibility, not really as something to get too caught up in yet, the market hasn't even bounced yet, too early to call for sure.
Everyone is super emotional now, try to put emotion aside, that only clouds objectivity.