I don't know why not many 4th entries, but I still have not gone
long. No gap down yesterday. Maybe this A.M I go long....some, but
only for a trade. The trend is clearly down yes? but this system
must be profitable at some point, even if it's just for a day
trade. 5th entry maybe? Maybe for me. Not hard to figure odds
increase with every gap down. I am 100% short though every entry on
this system long. Probably sell at least half my short on a big gap
down, maybe all....we'll see. I sell my shorts, I go long the
system, at least for a day trade, but will monitor
Posted by falcon5678 on 11th of May 2012 at 10:53 am
I don't really understand the inconsistency in how this system
puts on trades. It's supposed to be a reversion to the mean
but misses the easy trades and manages to grab the horrible
ones. A few weeks ago we grab the first entry in
the
1390s-
which is almost a guaranteed terrible trade. First
entries seems to occur right before a 40 point
S&Pdrop for some reason. Ok fine so we scale
down to 1360 and miraculously get out even after a big
rally. Then the market traces it way back down to 1360
again and we don't buy a share only to watch it go to
1415. How is it that we grab the first back breaking
scale in but sit and watch another good trade pass us
by. Then low and behold we start heading back down
and we start grabbing before another 40 point drop?? I just
don't get it. I know we'll make money eventually and
that a good system will eventually work out but this isn't
easy! In fact I may use this system as a contrarian indicator
for the rest of my trading. Next first entry I may
short the hell of of the market! (just kidding...kind of).
Maybe we should just drop the first two entries?
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2012 at 03:41 pm
Well, one is that the system cannot take into account the chart
pattern. It doesn't know we've been going through a topping
process, and it doesn't know anything of head and shoulder
patterns, or any other pattern for that matter. Nor does it
know about seasonality.
Posted by falcon5678 on 14th of May 2012 at 10:37 am
Well, that's an interesting question. Does it know or see
patterns? It doesn't 'know' a chart pattern the same
way that we know it but it is supposed to buy oversold and sell
overbought conditions. So no it doesn't actually see the
breakdown but reacts to a situation that usually relates
to a pattern breakdown of some sort, by
definition. IMHO I believe the flaw in this system as
it pertains to recent markets is that the market tends to slowly
grind up or sideways for long periods of time, perhaps due to a
lack of volume or real interest in markets in general. The
algos and HFT systems tend to clamp the markets in small
ranges. Over time the clamp eventually 'breaks' so to
speak, perhaps due to geopolitical reasons, Greece or something,
and boom we move drastically, which hurts any mean reversion system
that tries to grab range based profits. We are either
experiencing extremely low volatility, which is bad for trading, or
extreme moves every so often, which is tough for trading too,
unless you can jump on the momentum every 3 months and ride
it. Just a tough environment for everyone involved.
Hope it gets better!
Posted by frtaylor on 10th of May 2012 at 05:43 pm
I think we're looking at a fifth entry tomorrow (i.e., prices
will be even lower, there's not actually a 5th entry!), if the JPM
news is any indication.
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A HA! a fourth entry!
Posted by Jim on 9th of May 2012 at 04:07 pm
A HA! a fourth entry! that's my cue! Long very soon for a bounce, not today, after gap down in the A.M. Odds are favorable now for a profit :-)
why are there so many supposedly rare 4th entries?
Posted by rikkwan on 11th of May 2012 at 12:47 am
I don't know why not
Posted by Jim on 11th of May 2012 at 09:26 am
I don't know why not many 4th entries, but I still have not gone long. No gap down yesterday. Maybe this A.M I go long....some, but only for a trade. The trend is clearly down yes? but this system must be profitable at some point, even if it's just for a day trade. 5th entry maybe? Maybe for me. Not hard to figure odds increase with every gap down. I am 100% short though every entry on this system long. Probably sell at least half my short on a big gap down, maybe all....we'll see. I sell my shorts, I go long the system, at least for a day trade, but will monitor
I don't really understand the
Posted by falcon5678 on 11th of May 2012 at 10:53 am
I don't really understand the inconsistency in how this system puts on trades. It's supposed to be a reversion to the mean but misses the easy trades and manages to grab the horrible ones. A few weeks ago we grab the first entry in the 1390s- which is almost a guaranteed terrible trade. First entries seems to occur right before a 40 point S&Pdrop for some reason. Ok fine so we scale down to 1360 and miraculously get out even after a big rally. Then the market traces it way back down to 1360 again and we don't buy a share only to watch it go to 1415. How is it that we grab the first back breaking scale in but sit and watch another good trade pass us by. Then low and behold we start heading back down and we start grabbing before another 40 point drop?? I just don't get it. I know we'll make money eventually and that a good system will eventually work out but this isn't easy! In fact I may use this system as a contrarian indicator for the rest of my trading. Next first entry I may short the hell of of the market! (just kidding...kind of). Maybe we should just drop the first two entries?
Well, one is that the
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2012 at 03:41 pm
Well, one is that the system cannot take into account the chart pattern. It doesn't know we've been going through a topping process, and it doesn't know anything of head and shoulder patterns, or any other pattern for that matter. Nor does it know about seasonality.
Well, that's an interesting question.
Posted by falcon5678 on 14th of May 2012 at 10:37 am
Well, that's an interesting question. Does it know or see patterns? It doesn't 'know' a chart pattern the same way that we know it but it is supposed to buy oversold and sell overbought conditions. So no it doesn't actually see the breakdown but reacts to a situation that usually relates to a pattern breakdown of some sort, by definition. IMHO I believe the flaw in this system as it pertains to recent markets is that the market tends to slowly grind up or sideways for long periods of time, perhaps due to a lack of volume or real interest in markets in general. The algos and HFT systems tend to clamp the markets in small ranges. Over time the clamp eventually 'breaks' so to speak, perhaps due to geopolitical reasons, Greece or something, and boom we move drastically, which hurts any mean reversion system that tries to grab range based profits. We are either experiencing extremely low volatility, which is bad for trading, or extreme moves every so often, which is tough for trading too, unless you can jump on the momentum every 3 months and ride it. Just a tough environment for everyone involved. Hope it gets better!
I think we're looking at
Posted by frtaylor on 10th of May 2012 at 05:43 pm
I think we're looking at a fifth entry tomorrow (i.e., prices will be even lower, there's not actually a 5th entry!), if the JPM news is any indication.