As you know, AAPL was down big today, following through on the
text-book bear wedge break down from last week.
However let's have some fun with the RSI, as you know I've been
posting various statistics on the 2 length RSI for the market, well
here it is for AAPL
Today RSI 2 closed below 1%. This has only happened 11
times since 1988 when AAPL was still above its 200 day MA, so it's
quite rare.
The chances of the next day being an up day was only 58% of the
time, so not much. If you give it 2 days, the probability for
a higher closes jumps up to 75%. If you wait 6 days however,
the stats go up to 100% that AAPL will be higher. Also, the
trades are 100% if you exit when RSI rises above 60%
As you know AAPL is up today, yesterday AAPL the 2 RSI closed
below 1%, which has only occurred 10 times in the last 23
years.
At Steve's request, I re-ran the RSI statistics for AAPL.
This time I testing for instances where the 2 length RSI
closed below 1% and price was still above the 50 day MA instead of
using the 200 day MA. Traditionally RSI 2 systems use the 200
day MA to determine whether to take longs or shorts, however our
thought was that RSI 2 falling below 1% is pretty extreme already,
so if price is above the 50 day MA, it means that the short to
intermediate trend is up. Anyway, the probability of the next
day being an up day jumps up to 80%, and this jumps up to 100%
within 6 days, but this only occurs 6 times in the last 23 years,
again an extremely rare occurrence.
Fun with AAPL
Posted by matt on 16th of Apr 2012 at 10:06 pm
As you know, AAPL was down big today, following through on the text-book bear wedge break down from last week.
However let's have some fun with the RSI, as you know I've been posting various statistics on the 2 length RSI for the market, well here it is for AAPL
Today RSI 2 closed below 1%. This has only happened 11 times since 1988 when AAPL was still above its 200 day MA, so it's quite rare.
The chances of the next day being an up day was only 58% of the time, so not much. If you give it 2 days, the probability for a higher closes jumps up to 75%. If you wait 6 days however, the stats go up to 100% that AAPL will be higher. Also, the trades are 100% if you exit when RSI rises above 60%
As you know AAPL is
Posted by matt on 17th of Apr 2012 at 03:14 pm
As you know AAPL is up today, yesterday AAPL the 2 RSI closed below 1%, which has only occurred 10 times in the last 23 years.
At Steve's request, I re-ran the RSI statistics for AAPL. This time I testing for instances where the 2 length RSI closed below 1% and price was still above the 50 day MA instead of using the 200 day MA. Traditionally RSI 2 systems use the 200 day MA to determine whether to take longs or shorts, however our thought was that RSI 2 falling below 1% is pretty extreme already, so if price is above the 50 day MA, it means that the short to intermediate trend is up. Anyway, the probability of the next day being an up day jumps up to 80%, and this jumps up to 100% within 6 days, but this only occurs 6 times in the last 23 years, again an extremely rare occurrence.
Matt.. did you run that on PCLN???
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Apr 2012 at 03:36 pm
the results are pretty similar,
Posted by matt on 17th of Apr 2012 at 03:48 pm
the results are pretty similar, not many trades. send me a pm I'll test some other stocks
"wait 6 days" - I think that coincides with AAPL's earnings day
Posted by sethbru on 16th of Apr 2012 at 10:46 pm
what a coincidence!
ah ha ha ha, I
Posted by matt on 17th of Apr 2012 at 12:33 am
ah ha ha ha, I didn't put 2 and 2 together, that's funny.